mappy Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 Ok Mappy, I am starting to not feel it for your yard anymore either. Eh it’s the NAM . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 2 minutes ago, Amped said: And don't leave the NAM off the ignore list. By 0z, the NAM will be worth more consideration. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 Breathe easy friends Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 My sounding has 29 and snow at 8am. Sweet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 Icon FRINGED Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 Great shift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 Just got NAM'd by the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 NWS has 90% chance of snow and sleet on Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 I'll harp on this again. The Great Lakes NS low on Friday is critical to where our storm tracks. If it's weak sauce, our storm goes north and congrats Harrisburg. If it's a bit stronger, we jackpot. A strong low (which looks very unlikely now) would lead to suppression. Our storm is really just riding along the front, not moving it substantially on its own. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 Just now, WxUSAF said: I'll harp on this again. The Great Lakes NS low on Friday is critical to where our storm tracks. If it's weak sauce, our storm goes north and congrats Harrisburg. If it's a bit stronger, we jackpot. A strong low (which looks very unlikely now) would lead to suppression. Our storm is really just riding along the front, not moving it substantially on its own. Yeah, was gonna mention it was stronger. Hopefully it's not just happy hour being happy hour though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: I'll harp on this again. The Great Lakes NS low on Friday is critical to where our storm tracks. If it's weak sauce, our storm goes north and congrats Harrisburg. If it's a bit stronger, we jackpot. A strong low (which looks very unlikely now) would lead to suppression. Our storm is really just riding along the front, not moving it substantially on its own. Too bad it's not a high instead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 3 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: By 0z, the NAM will be worth more consideration. If you mean 0Z on Friday night, then I would agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 1 minute ago, C.A.P.E. said: By 0z tomorrow the NAM will be worth more consideration. Fixed I think by 12z tomorrow actually it's into range where I would give it some weight and bother to start to analyze it. It's better then it was pre upgrade. But outside 48 hours it's still super jumpy with weird tangents. Used to be that way even at 24-48 hours. Now not so much. It can still be wrong but typically when it is way off inside 48 the other guidance is too. And the few times it was way off on its own in the 24-48 range the last year or so it was either totally or partially right. It's better but not until 48 hours imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 7 minutes ago, mappy said: Eh it’s the NAM . We might need our own thread for the northern peeps if this goes bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 Euro out to lunch with the NAM. GFS just walked in and said “stop f$&@“$&@ with the MA crew” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 Well I guess the thread goes on for a little longer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 GFS is actually a lot of rain until the end of event. I say 1-2" max Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 6 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: I'll harp on this again. The Great Lakes NS low on Friday is critical to where our storm tracks. If it's weak sauce, our storm goes north and congrats Harrisburg. If it's a bit stronger, we jackpot. A strong low (which looks very unlikely now) would lead to suppression. Our storm is really just riding along the front, not moving it substantially on its own. You pointed that out earlier and I agree. It's obvious run to run the NS system to our northeast in front of this is determining the boundary. I do think the adjustments we see the last 24-36 hours (duh given the antecedent boundary location will be determined by then) will be driven by changes in the amplitude of the wave and it possibly resisting the push of the boundary if it can produce some ridging in front. But right now the run to run adjustments are 90% driven by that feature over New England. Ideally we would want both stronger. Get the boundary south of us then have a juiced up system blast into us and push the boundary bank just a bit with a massive thump snow. That was kind of what those big op euro runs showed and what some of the still crazy EPS and GEFS members do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 1 minute ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: GFS is actually a lot of rain until the end of event. I say 1-2" max Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: We might need our own thread for the northern peeps if this goes bad. Gfs isn’t bad for dc folks, but I agree if it goes bad... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 2 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: GFS is actually a lot of rain until the end of event. I say 1-2" max Shut up Chuck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 Precip is decent Closest money panel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 The surface temp panel for 18Z on Saturday is even more absurd on this run. It’s verbatim *colder* than what the models were showing (and what more or less verified) at the same time of day for our 3/21 snow event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 Rgem at 54 looks more like the gfs then the nam. Just sayin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Rgem at 54 looks more like the gfs then the nam. Just sayin. Yes the RGEM well outside of its useful range(if it has one) looks pretty good! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 2 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Yes the RGEM well outside of its useful range(if it has one) looks pretty good! The NAM is also outside it's useful range of 6 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 Those GFS temps are incredible for Saturday morning. Imagine it's April 7 and you wake up to SN+ with temps of 26-28 degrees, especially when the previous day was 60. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 I hate to say it, but a quick dig through @cae‘s post-analysis thread reveals the ICON is good to have on our side in the mid-range. I’ll wait to be smited, but I’m comfortable with an ICON/GFS/EPS combo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 2 minutes ago, Amped said: The NAM is also outside it's useful range of 6 hrs. lol ok. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLover22 Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 I’m thinking would I rather the roles be reversed gfs too far north and the NAM perfect or nah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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