NewYorkweatherfan Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 4 minutes ago, Quasievil said: The EURO has really struggled this year with overdoing precip. The fact that it reduced it here is not surprising. It didn't count today's rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 1 minute ago, NewYorkweatherfan said: It didn't count today's rain Nope, that isn't the reason it cut back on precip, at least in our subforum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 4 minutes ago, stormtracker said: It didn't used to swing so wildly. We went from 15 cyber inches to almost none in one run. I was in the 27"-28" zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: Nope, that isn't the reason it cut back on precip, at least in our subforum. Yes, it would. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 3 minutes ago, Jandurin said: Yes, it would. Not by an inch man. 0z EURO only gave DCA .2" today. Heck, the 12z EURO still gave us .1". Is it a part of it? I guess. But its still a significant cut not considering that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 3 minutes ago, Jandurin said: Yes, it would. It was barely any rain dude. That wasn’t it. Euro has been too wet all winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: Not by an inch man. 0z EURO only gave DCA .2" today. Heck, the 12z EURO still gave us .1". That's true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted April 4, 2018 Author Share Posted April 4, 2018 The Euro has been garbage IMBY all winter and the GFS has actually been king (can't believe I'm saying that, but it's true). I'm riding this one out on the GFS until the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 you guys are giving up already? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 this thread isn't even 24 hours old and the euro is junk. come on. where my weenies at? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 2 minutes ago, mappy said: you guys are giving up already? i wouldn't. looks like the system is a bit faster on the 12z too. if the cold can outpace the precip better then i think we could still get a good solution. there's been some wobbles north, but i don't think this is a setup where it keeps trending north like that. it's a classic rain to snow look, at least in the dc caribbean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 4 minutes ago, mappy said: this thread isn't even 24 hours old and the euro is junk. come on. where my weenies at? You rang?… Snow TV in April where do I sign and it’s my birthday Saturday even better ....No one is taking away the snow TV yet as far as I can tell maybe the next run of the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 Just now, 87storms said: i wouldn't. looks like the system is a bit faster on the 12z too. if the cold can outpace the precip better then i think we could still get a good solution. there's been some wobbles north, but i don't think this is a setup where it keeps trending north like that. it's a classic rain to snow look, at least in the dc caribbean. Dc Caribbean? That sounds nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 i legit only just got excited and everyone is leaving Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 We can breath a little easier now. EPS is a step back but still nice overall. Lots of cushion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 I’m betting happy hour gfs brings us all back from the ledge...or the high dive (for you warm weather jumpers). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 5 minutes ago, mappy said: i legit only just got excited and everyone is leaving I just want a tenth of an inch of snow. You can have 4-6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 We can breath a little easier now. EPS is a step back but still nice overall. Lots of cushion. Thank you for this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: We can breath a little easier now. EPS is a step back but still nice overall. Nah, once we start the slide back, there's no stopping it. Especially in April. The EPS will slowly start to slide back in 12 hour increments. GFS is next. Not being a deb at all..I'll keep watching and there's always hope. If this was Jan or Feb, no way I'd give up. But we're already at a precarious stage as it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 3 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Nah, once we start the slide back, there's no stopping it. Especially in April. The EPS will slowly start to slide back in 12 hour increments. GFS is next. Not being a deb at all..I'll keep watching and there's always hope. If this was Jan or Feb, no way I'd give up. But we're already at a precarious stage as it is. I'll take the part I bolded and run with it. Not gonna pretend I'm not concerned. All I need is .15" to break 10", so that's my bar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 7 minutes ago, mappy said: i legit only just got excited and everyone is leaving I am excited for your yard still. I have enjoyed tracking and at least trying to contribute some decent objective analysis lol, but my personal interest is pretty low outside of something truly historic- which looks unlikely to me. And.. ITS APRIL! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 11 minutes ago, mappy said: i legit only just got excited and everyone is leaving 12Z Euro was the best model run yet for my yard. Can't say I'm excited though, as I only have room for about 50-75 miles of northward shift with 72 hours still to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 Additionally interesting: While I don't have the good WxBell individual snow maps to confirm, it looks like the EPS see suppression as an issue still. Maybe somebody with better maps could help out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 21 minutes ago, mappy said: you guys are giving up already? ^The ultimate “imby” weenie. Nice to everyone when things go her way and snippy when it doesnt Where’s Yoda to tell us not to worry about the north trend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 7 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: I am excited for your yard still. I have enjoyed tracking and at least trying to contribute some decent objective analysis lol, but my personal interest is pretty low outside of something truly historic- which looks unlikely to me. And.. ITS APRIL! APRIL SNOW! 6 minutes ago, WVclimo said: 12Z Euro was the best model run yet for my yard. Can't say I'm excited though, as I only have room for about 50-75 miles of northward shift with 72 hours still to go. Oh yeah, a shift could screw me too. 4 minutes ago, PivotPoint said: ^The ultimate “imby” weenie. Nice to everyone when things go her way and snippy when it doesnt Where’s Yoda to tell us not to worry about the north trend I can't please everyone, I am not pizza. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 8 minutes ago, PivotPoint said: ^The ultimate “imby” weenie. Nice to everyone when things go her way and snippy when it doesnt Where’s Yoda to tell us not to worry about the north trend Keep yelling at this person. Mappy controls the weather and is purposely pulling it north just to cause you rage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 Euro has been unreliable most of the winter. It did the exact same thing with the March 20-21 storm. Gave the entire forum 20+ inches then stole it next run. This is a very tricky storm. Awaiting an “arctic airmass” in April as your only source of cold where a low develops along the boundary is rough in any month let alone spring. GFS is most consistent. Might still see a northward trend though and it won’t take too much to shift MA snow solely into the higher terrain and into NYC subforum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 8 minutes ago, mappy said: APRIL SNOW! Oh yeah, a shift could screw me too. I can't please everyone, I am not pizza. That’s actually pretty funny lol In all seriousness, I was thinking last night (based off weenie model-theory) there is a bias for northern correction 3-4 days out, then a slight correction back south 24-36 hours out. So today’s north trend doesn’t surprise me. And it wouldnt surprise me that the Thursday night and Friday morning suites correct back So dc/Balt might still be in the game. The question is how abrasive is the north trend. Too much and a small correction south won’t matter in our beautiful spring climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 When models take away my spring snow I always lash out at others because I expect spring snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 1 minute ago, PivotPoint said: That’s actually pretty funny lol In all seriousness, I was thinking last night (based off weenie model-theory) there is a bias for northern correction 3-4 days out, then a slight correction back south 24-36 hours out. So today’s north trend doesn’t surprise me. And it would surprise me that the Thursday night and Friday morning suites correct back So dc/Balt might still be in the game. The question is how abrasive is the north trend. Too much and a small correction south won’t matter in our beautiful spring climo. in all seriousness i don't want this snow y'all can have it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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