yoda Posted April 6, 2018 Share Posted April 6, 2018 FWIW, 12z UKIE is a big improvement from EZF to DCA re QPF over 00z. 00z at DCA was 0.10"... 12z is around 0.30". Unfortunately, it doesn't really matter much once you get north of DCA as 0.1 QPF line runs from Winchester to BWI on 12z UKMET Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted April 6, 2018 Share Posted April 6, 2018 After many years, decade plus, of looking at model performance I find In ninas they always overdo the intensity of the storm. Ninas are generally some form of stringy mess and if that narrow strip gets right over us then we hit otherwise not in Ninos they have difficulty with the placement of the low. They get the intensity correct but struggled right up to 24 hours with does the low pass over Norfolk or Hagerstown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted April 6, 2018 Share Posted April 6, 2018 CMC is a decent jump north as well. precip jumps .2” at DCA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted April 6, 2018 Share Posted April 6, 2018 On 4/6/2018 at 5:17 PM, PhineasC said: LOL RIC beats DCA in April. Just end this terrible nightmare winter already. Expand Eh, this is just what comes around goes around. Pretty sure RIC hasn't had a 12"+ storm since '96 (or '83 don't remember), meanwhile DC has had what, 4? IAD has had something like 5 in that time as well. They get their little victories, we get ours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted April 6, 2018 Share Posted April 6, 2018 On 4/6/2018 at 5:52 PM, Cobalt said: Eh, this is just what comes around goes around. Pretty sure RIC hasn't had a 12"+ storm since '96 (or '83 don't remember), meanwhile DC has had what, 4? IAD has had something like 5 in that time as well. They get their little victories, we get ours. Expand And we are all part of the same subforum. They are pretty humble crew down there so I always appreciate when they get snow as I’m sure they do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted April 6, 2018 Share Posted April 6, 2018 Euro says 'What snow?'. Shows some small pockets of 1 inch totals in central VA and that's it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted April 6, 2018 Share Posted April 6, 2018 On 4/6/2018 at 6:13 PM, BristowWx said: And we are all part of the same subforum. They are pretty humble crew down there so I always appreciate when they get snow as I’m sure they do. Yeah, I'm fine with them getting snow. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted April 6, 2018 Share Posted April 6, 2018 On 4/6/2018 at 6:18 PM, showmethesnow said: Euro says 'What snow?'. Shows some small pockets of 1 inch totals in central VA and that's it. Expand How times change. Used to a nail in the coffin now we wait for other guidance and dismiss it. Sort of...still probably more right than wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted April 6, 2018 Share Posted April 6, 2018 On 4/6/2018 at 6:27 PM, BristowWx said: How times change. Used to a nail in the coffin now we wait for other guidance and dismiss it. Sort of...still probably more right than wrong. Expand Kind of Blah on the whole thing at this point anyway. I was never really in the running after the models shifted south and was mostly tracking hoping the cities could score. At this point I think we are looking at just another massive tease by the models. I still think the models are evil AI's bent on the destruction of mankind and all this is just part of their ultimate plan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted April 6, 2018 Share Posted April 6, 2018 On 4/6/2018 at 6:32 PM, showmethesnow said: Kind of Blah on the whole thing at this point anyway. I was never really in the running after the models shifted south and was mostly tracking hoping the cities could score. At this point I think we are looking at just another massive tease by the models. I still think the models are evil AI's bent on the destruction of mankind and all this is just part of their ultimate plan. Expand Yeah. Just three days ago we had HECS. Will be happy when this is all behind us..addiction won’t let me stop tracking but sustained warmth will pull my plug out of the socket quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted April 6, 2018 Share Posted April 6, 2018 I though I read about the European that they changed their "mission statement" to focus more on their continent and less on the USA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted April 6, 2018 Share Posted April 6, 2018 12z HRDPS crushes the lower eastern shore lol. Especially the VA part. Chase to Chincoteague? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATreglown Posted April 6, 2018 Share Posted April 6, 2018 On 4/6/2018 at 5:52 PM, Cobalt said: Eh, this is just what comes around goes around. Pretty sure RIC hasn't had a 12"+ storm since '96 (or '83 don't remember), meanwhile DC has had what, 4? IAD has had something like 5 in that time as well. They get their little victories, we get ours. Expand In 1993 we had an 18" snow in February, 1996 12" in January, 2000 15"in January, and 2016 had 13" January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted April 6, 2018 Share Posted April 6, 2018 On 4/6/2018 at 7:05 PM, ATreglown said: In 1993 we had an 18" snow in February, 1996 12" in January, 2000 15"in January, and 2016 had 13" January. Expand I think he's talking about official records from the airport, in the same way people would be referring to DCA when they're talking about DC snow records. KRIC has not reported a 12"+ snowstorm since 2/83, even though 1/96, 1/00, and 1/16 all had >12"+ reports in the metro region. 1/96 in particular seemed like an atrociously low total at 9.5" (the 2.5" on 1/9 was from the clipper). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATreglown Posted April 6, 2018 Share Posted April 6, 2018 On 4/6/2018 at 7:22 PM, gymengineer said: I think he's talking about official records from the airport, in the same way people would be referring to DCA when they're talking about DC snow records. KRIC has not reported a 12"+ snowstorm since 2/83, even though 1/96, 1/00, and 1/16 all had >12"+ reports in the metro region. 1/96 in particular seemed like an atrociously low total at 9.5" (the 2.5" on 1/9 was from the clipper). Expand The reports out of RIC are not accurate at all. People send in reports from all around the airport area and RIC totals on the norm below actual snow accumulation. It's very annoying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted April 6, 2018 Share Posted April 6, 2018 one thing is certain...the models from a couple days ago nailed the friday torch. it's outstanding outside right now. i also wonder if warmer temps today could help us tomorrow in slowing the initial boundary and allowing a further north track of that SE wave. i'm interested. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted April 6, 2018 Share Posted April 6, 2018 was out and about earlier, but the gfs is a close shave with slight trends nw. if that cold push is even remotely delayed, gotta think we have a chance here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted April 6, 2018 Share Posted April 6, 2018 Can't believe we're rooting for a torch and a delay in cold prior to a storm in April! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted April 6, 2018 Share Posted April 6, 2018 On 4/6/2018 at 7:43 PM, peribonca said: Can't believe we're rooting for a torch and a delay in cold prior to a storm in April! Expand it's stupid, but i think that's what we want in this case, otherwise the system may get shunted too far east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted April 6, 2018 Share Posted April 6, 2018 On 4/6/2018 at 6:38 PM, bigshaq00 said: how much could north Carolina see Expand If rain-snow line sets up about Norfolk VA to Raleigh NC then counties west of that could see 3-6" and mountains 5-10" but all depends on track of this OK-AR-MS low later today; for RDU the likely outcome is 0.5" liquid and 1.0" snow out of that, sleet and ice pellets etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted April 6, 2018 Share Posted April 6, 2018 On 4/6/2018 at 7:05 PM, C.A.P.E. said: 12z HRDPS crushes the lower eastern shore lol. Especially the VA part. Chase to Chincoteague? Expand When I think mid-April on Chincoteague I definitely think snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted April 6, 2018 Share Posted April 6, 2018 nam 12 is a bit slower so far. low around the AR/AL border moving E/northeast. little more energy being held back, but also a little bit less on the nw side. i really just want to see if there's any trend nw, even if it's slight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted April 6, 2018 Share Posted April 6, 2018 NAM is going to be more north looking at 500MB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted April 6, 2018 Share Posted April 6, 2018 yea, might get fringed this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted April 6, 2018 Share Posted April 6, 2018 fringed. better than nothing. curious what the qpf is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted April 6, 2018 Share Posted April 6, 2018 certainly still needs work, but it looks like there's enough energy hanging back to allow a period of snow before the system moves out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 6, 2018 Share Posted April 6, 2018 On 4/6/2018 at 8:11 PM, 87storms said: fringed. better than nothing. curious what the qpf is. Expand DCA 0.20-0.25 QPF on 18z NAM... QPF comes in between 21z and 03z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted April 6, 2018 Share Posted April 6, 2018 Hey.. Not awful (still snowing far SE of DC) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted April 6, 2018 Share Posted April 6, 2018 On 4/6/2018 at 8:02 PM, Ji said: NAM is going to be more north looking at 500MB Expand hard to tell if it even came northwest or the nw side is just a little better this run. precip output is not impressive and pretty similar to the south as last run, but maybe more of a chance to get shaved now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted April 6, 2018 Share Posted April 6, 2018 On 4/6/2018 at 8:17 PM, yoda said: DCA 0.20-0.25 QPF on 18z NAM Expand that's actually better than i thought it would be. is that all snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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