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April 7-8 snow event

PrinceFrederickWx

By PrinceFrederickWx,
in Mid Atlantic

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted
  On 4/5/2018 at 4:32 PM, Tenman Johnson said:

You would save yourself a lot of angst by accepting that models do not predict weather but rather give examples of all possible outcomes

models have  predicted 0-15" of snow 4/5 times this season and they have been right each time, mostly along  the 0.

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Bad predictions are still predictions. If you continue to demonstrate you have no idea how NWP works or even what a prediction is then why should we take anything you say seriously?  I wouldn't trust a carpenter that went on weird rants about how useless a drill is then explained it's because they don't hammer nails at all. 

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DownpourDave

DownpourDave

Posted
Posted
  On 4/5/2018 at 4:50 PM, Ji said:
  On 4/5/2018 at 4:46 PM, H2O said:
Well look at that.  An april storm that might not work out.  Sorry climo took away all that euro pink from the other day.
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Climo had nothing to do with this

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Completely agree climo was not the reason this may fail. This same type of situation would have failed in January as depicted

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H2O

H2O

Posted
Posted
  On 4/5/2018 at 4:52 PM, psuhoffman said:

He is just trolling 

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Sure to an extent.  But its part climo and part continuation of how this winter/spring has gone during this nina/nino cycle.  All winter we've seen modeled snow and storms fizzle.  How many countless "pattern is great" posts have you and others made only to see this very result as we are witnessing again?  When you add in how hostile it typically is this time of year to get any sort of anomalous snowstorm regardless of the pattern TBH this was the expected result.  

Yet we had the same routine go on from people here that began earlier this week.  People began to once again hang their hat on the snowiest solution from a day or two ago and then do the exact same thing they have all winter which is b**ch and moan.

Yes, I poked fun at your worry over being fringed.  Yes, I've annoyed the biggest baby on this forum in Ji.  The guy who can't handle weather. 

Have fun with things.  taking this stuff too seriously causes wrinkles

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted
  On 4/5/2018 at 5:07 PM, H2O said:

Sure to an extent.  But its part climo and part continuation of how this winter/spring has gone during this nina/nino cycle.  All winter we've seen modeled snow and storms fizzle.  How many countless "pattern is great" posts have you and others made only to see this very result as we are witnessing again?  When you add in how hostile it typically is this time of year to get any sort of anomalous snowstorm regardless of the pattern TBH this was the expected result.  

Yet we had the same routine go on from people here that began earlier this week.  People began to once again hang their hat on the snowiest solution from a day or two ago and then do the exact same thing they have all winter which is b**ch and moan.

Yes, I poked fun at your worry over being fringed.  Yes, I've annoyed the biggest baby on this forum in Ji.  The guy who can't handle weather. 

Have fun with things.  taking this stuff too seriously causes wrinkles

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Your not bothering me. But I'm not going to feed into it either. Yea it looks to fail. No shock. But I like to analyze things at a deeper level then that. The why is as important as the what to me. Some only care about the what and that's fine too. But we're not on the same page so no point going back and forth. Your mostly just poking the hornets nest for fun right now anyways. 

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mappy

mappy

Posted
Posted
  On 4/5/2018 at 5:12 PM, psuhoffman said:

Your not bothering me. But I'm not going to feed into it either. Yea it looks to fail. No shock. But I like to analyze things at a deeper level then that. The why is as important as the what to me. Some only care about the what and that's fine too. But we're not on the same page so no point going back and forth. Your mostly just poking the hornets nest for fun right now anyways. 

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i warned him earlier he would cause a riot. 

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H2O

H2O

Posted
Posted
  On 4/5/2018 at 5:12 PM, psuhoffman said:

Your not bothering me. But I'm not going to feed into it either. Yea it looks to fail. No shock. But I like to analyze things at a deeper level then that. The why is as important as the what to me. Some only care about the what and that's fine too. But we're not on the same page so no point going back and forth. Your mostly just poking the hornets nest for fun right now anyways. 

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The easiest way to look at it other than its DC and we fail 995 of the time is that quite simply, the models just are unable to stay consistent as an event nears due to whatever reason.  if that is a result of the weak nina moving to a possible nino then maybe that is an explanation.  Every model struggled with things at different times this winter and it would probably be impossible to poinpoint one thing that gets you to go Ah-Ha!

Chalk it up to one of those years where chaos combined with the DC curse made for another sucker snow season.  The trust lost with how the models have performed would be the one thing taken from this winter as a bad omen going into the next.  Maybe its just more proof that when the atmosphere is a mess that the massive computing power still can't make heads or tails of what will happen more than 48 hours out.

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showmethesnow

showmethesnow

Posted
Posted
  On 4/5/2018 at 5:21 PM, H2O said:

The easiest way to look at it other than its DC and we fail 995 of the time is that quite simply, the models just are unable to stay consistent as an event nears due to whatever reason.  if that is a result of the weak nina moving to a possible nino then maybe that is an explanation.  Every model struggled with things at different times this winter and it would probably be impossible to poinpoint one thing that gets you to go Ah-Ha!

Chalk it up to one of those years where chaos combined with the DC curse made for another sucker snow season.  The trust lost with how the models have performed would be the one thing taken from this winter as a bad omen going into the next.  Maybe its just more proof that when the atmosphere is a mess that the massive computing power still can't make heads or tails of what will happen more than 48 hours out.

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You were more fun when you were trying to troll. This talking sense has to go. :P

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H2O

H2O

Posted
Posted
  On 4/5/2018 at 5:24 PM, showmethesnow said:

You were more fun when you were trying to troll. This talking sense has to go. :P

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But i wasn't very good.  :(  Ji was right.  I never contribute and I am a bad poster.  He would know of that after all.  Who am i to question?  I'm not even a good moderator not moderator.  Look at this thread.  it should have been storm moded days ago when the euro gave us stone cold assassin 20" 

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CAPE

CAPE

Posted
Posted
  On 4/5/2018 at 4:28 PM, psuhoffman said:

Ugh is what I feel looking at the 6z and 12z guidance. Not because it's south but why. No separation behind the NS wave and barely even a ripple along the front anymore. It's becoming just a kink on a pressing boundary with some anafront snow. Not even a legit storm. 

If I don't see some improvements tonight I'll start to kiss this goodbye. But then we can move on to the real threat next week!!!

:) 

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This is pretty much exactly what I said this morning after looking at 6z. Just in a slightly different way. Next week is where its at!!

Unfortunately that will probably be in NE. :( 

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