stormtracker Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 On 4/4/2018 at 10:33 PM, NorthArlington101 said: I hate to say it, but a quick dig through [mention=10110]cae[/mention] ‘s post-analysis thread reveals the ICON is good to have on our side in the mid-range. I’ll wait to be smited, but I’m comfortable with an ICON/GFS/EPS combo. Expand 3 kittens just died. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 On 4/4/2018 at 10:33 PM, Philadelphia Snow said: I’m thinking would I rather the roles be reversed gfs too far north and the NAM perfect or nah. Expand Honestly, I kinda agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 On 4/4/2018 at 10:35 PM, stormtracker said: Honestly, I kinda agree Expand Maybe it is my inner weenie but damn, when the NAM isn't NAMing us... little bit of doubt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 On 4/4/2018 at 10:27 PM, C.A.P.E. said: Yes the RGEM well outside of its useful range(if it has one) looks pretty good! Expand I know the rgem sucks at range. But if your gonna use the nam at 72 hours to freak out then I can use the rgem at 54 hours to not freak out. Lol But seriously I doubt the nam progression. It's totally on its own at 48 hours. Even the op euro which was a northern outlier among the EPS looked nothing like that. It ends up north but not the same way and not neatly to that extent. My rgem comment was just to confirm nothing else so far is in the nam camp. Again I don't doubt a north trend in the end as a threat but not for the reason the nam is doing it and not to that extent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlamSlam Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 Is GFS consistent with QPF amounts compared to 12Z Euro, but more south? I realize Euro lost an inch of QPF in one run. Don't understand why everyone said game over after latest Euro run. I am no expert but GFS has seemed much more consistent and less jumpy than Euro with this one. Does not mean it is right, but...Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G891A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 On 4/4/2018 at 10:35 PM, stormtracker said: Honestly, I kinda agree Expand Really? Why? When do things ever trend south close to game time? If the GFS was north we would say game over regardless of the NAM. The GFS being slightly south of 12z was a last minute miracle. I thought for sure it would be north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 On 4/4/2018 at 10:37 PM, SlamSlam said: Is GFS consistent with QPF amounts compared to 12Z Euro, but more south? I realize Euro lost an inch of QPF in one run. Don't understand why everyone said game over after latest Euro run. I am no expert but GFS has seemed much more consistent and less jumpy than Euro with this one. Does not mean it is right, but... Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G891A using Tapatalk Expand GFS has 0.9-1" of precip for DC, Euro has 0.7-0.8" of precip, but the Euro wastes a lot of precip changing to snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 I think the ICON needs its own thread devoted to all things icon. We can do pbp each run then during off times deeply analyze every panel and trend and discuss past performance and verifications. #kittenslayer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 On 4/4/2018 at 10:37 PM, psuhoffman said: I know the rgem sucks at range. But if your gonna use the nam at 72 hours to freak out then I can use the rgem at 54 hours to not freak out. Lol But seriously I doubt the nam progression. It's totally on its own at 48 hours. Even the op euro which was a northern outlier among the EPS looked nothing like that. It ends up north but not the same way and not neatly to that extent. My rgem comment was just to confirm nothing else so far is in the nam camp. Again I don't doubt a north trend in the end as a threat but not for the reason the nam is doing it and not to that extent. Expand I never freak out over any model. The NAM solution sucked, and I said so. It might be completely wrong, but if it had looked great, you know damn well there would have been people here all giddy over it..a lot of the same ones that rag on it when it shows a "bad" outcome. It is a forecasting tool with it's uses just like any other. Just read Mount Holly's AFD and the NAM is mentioned right there with the GFS in the discussion about possible outcomes. They don't throw it out because its the NAM at 60 or 72 hours lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 Lolz at the 18 gfs kuchera jackpot over BAL metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 On 4/4/2018 at 10:55 PM, jayyy said: Lolz at the 18 gfs kuchera jackpot over BAL metro. I know it’s fabulous . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 On 4/4/2018 at 10:50 PM, C.A.P.E. said: I never freak out over any model. The NAM solution sucked, and I said so. It might be completely wrong, but if it had looked great, you know damn well there would have been people here all giddy over it..a lot of the same ones that rag on it when it shows a "bad" outcome. It is a forecasting tool with it's uses just like any other. Just read Mount Holly's AFD and the NAM is mentioned right there with the GFS in the discussion about possible outcomes. They don't throw it out because its the NAM at 60 or 72 hours lol. Expand I know you don't freak out. I was just ribbing ya. But I will agree to disagree on the nam at range. I don't get excited at all when it is all alone and shows a good solution past 48. It's done that a few times the last couple years and I'm still waiting for my snow. Maybe it's on to something. It has scored some coups at range before. But way more often it's just off on a tangent. So I don't worry about it or take it seriously until it's inside it's more stable range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 On 4/4/2018 at 11:00 PM, mappy said: I know it’s fabulous . Expand I think it’s doable. Maybe not downtown. But Catonsville Towson parkville white marsh etc could be the sweet spot for this one. Far enough north for solid CAD, but far enough south to be smack in the middle of the heaviest qpf. I’d be pretty pumped being any Baltimore county resident right about now with the current look of this storm at 500 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 WE'RE BACK, BABY!!!http://cloud.tapatalk.com/s/5ac55af0484cd/Video_20180404190616841_by_videoshow.mp4Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 It’s still too far north. My comfort zone is all the models showing snow in Pensacola. Then I know we will be in the sweet spot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 On 4/4/2018 at 11:00 PM, psuhoffman said: I know you don't freak out. I was just ribbing ya. But I will agree to disagree on the nam at range. I don't get excited at all when it is all alone and shows a good solution past 48. It's done that a few times the last couple years and I'm still waiting for my snow. Maybe it's on to something. It has scored some coups at range before. But way more often it's just off on a tangent. So I don't worry about it or take it seriously until it's inside it's more stable range. Expand I know, and I agree for the most part. But the modeled ground truth outcome has been more snow further north, outside of the one run where it had the 2 waves and 2 different snow maxes. It certainly can be wonky at range. It was more the Euro trends I was concerned with. The NAM solution gets there a different way- lags the cold and runs the wave out quicker, and ends up with the best snow further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 On 4/4/2018 at 9:41 PM, psuhoffman said: My fingernails would thank you. In other news... dont worry the JMA says the real threat is next week anyways Expand with 850 temps at +1 to +3 in april. thats gonna work out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 On 4/4/2018 at 11:32 PM, Ji said: with 850 temps at +1 to +3 in april. thats gonna work out Expand You take the JMA slp with the euro temps. Duh! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 On 4/4/2018 at 11:41 PM, psuhoffman said: You take the JMA slp with the euro temps. Duh! Expand JMA always under-amps. Stronger storm, deeper cold. Presto! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestminsterSnowCapitalMA Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 Do you guys think this storm will blanket my trees with snow and save the blossoms. they cant handle 20 f Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 It’s gonna snow and that’s just something we’re gonna have to deal with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 On 4/4/2018 at 11:47 PM, 87storms said: It’s gonna snow and that’s just something we’re gonna have to deal with. Expand I don’t think we can. We are in uncharted waters. And we are jaded by the last few months. We are prepping for the fail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 Any news on the 18z GEFS or did I miss it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 On 4/4/2018 at 11:04 PM, jayyy said: I think it’s doable. Maybe not downtown. But Catonsville Towson parkville white marsh etc could be the sweet spot for this one. Far enough north for solid CAD, but far enough south to be smack in the middle of the heaviest qpf. I’d be pretty pumped being any Baltimore county resident right about now with the current look of this storm at 500 Expand Well, being a Baltimore County resident, along the mason Dixon, with 700 feet elevation...I think I may be ok Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kristymac03 Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 On 4/4/2018 at 11:10 PM, H2O said: It’s still too far north. My comfort zone is all the models showing snow in Pensacola. Then I know we will be in the sweet spot Expand Pensacola is home for me! It snowed 3 times there this winter lmao. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 I dont get all of the fretting in this thread. All of the models look good to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 On 4/4/2018 at 10:40 PM, Cobalt said: GFS has 0.9-1" of precip for DC, Euro has 0.7-0.8" of precip, but the Euro wastes a lot of precip changing to snow Expand The GFS has a known bias of transitioning too quickly from rain to snow. The Euro should be given a greater weight in these situations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 GFS blankets much of the Balto-DC corridor with 4-6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 On 4/5/2018 at 12:27 AM, Eskimo Joe said: The GFS has a known bias of transitioning too quickly from rain to snow. The Euro should be given a greater weight in these situations. Expand Never heard of that bias before, but it also could be in this case due to the GFS being farther south than the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 On 4/5/2018 at 12:24 AM, clskinsfan said: I dont get all of the fretting in this thread. All of the models look good to me. Expand Most of the fretting is coming from the southern half. But you knew that. Winchester looks fine. But you knew that too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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