PrinceFrederickWx Posted April 3, 2018 Share Posted April 3, 2018 My first storm thread in all my years on this forum! As some of you know, I've been super bullish on this system for awhile now. I think we can do this- if we're gonna get a region-wide event in April, this has gotta be the way. And if I get my second accumulating April event in just three years, it will be mindblowing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLover22 Posted April 3, 2018 Share Posted April 3, 2018 E12 anyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted April 3, 2018 Share Posted April 3, 2018 It's on my birthday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted April 3, 2018 Share Posted April 3, 2018 Dont think anyone in our region would be unhappy with e12, other than Ji. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 Waaaaay to early. Tuesday for a Saturday event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 7 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Dont think anyone in our region would be unhappy with e12, other than Ji. e12 would accumulate on the roads in the middle of the day while drinking an IPA and laughing at the sun angle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 Waaaaay to early. Tuesday for a Saturday event?You made a thread 10 days prior Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLover22 Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLover22 Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 NAM looks a bit warm no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 7 minutes ago, Philadelphia Snow said: NAM looks a bit warm no? Seems a little more amped than the globals...not surprising. But the key to this whole thing is the timing of the arctic front. If it’s delayed then you get a more amped and PA snow solution. Too quick then most of the snow is in VA. Need the tweener which as of now looks most likely! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 Might be a bit early to be extrapolating the nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 I can't believe this is even a possibility. Never seen anything like it in all my years of tracking weather. I thought 3/25/2013 was super late back when it happened. This would blow it out of the water in terms of how anomalous and unusual it is. But I'm not a fan of the timing, unless it goes all e12 or e20 uber HECS on us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 At night you need just -12 departures so it can happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 12 minutes ago, Fozz said: I can't believe this is even a possibility. Never seen anything like it in all my years of tracking weather. I thought 3/25/2013 was super late back when it happened. This would blow it out of the water in terms of how anomalous and unusual it is. But I'm not a fan of the timing, unless it goes all e12 or e20 uber HECS on us. True but if some of the modeled upper air patterns are correct who knows. Not a lot of precedents for this. -6-8 850s with precip fallling is damn impressive for this time of year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 9 minutes ago, Tenman Johnson said: At night you need just -12 departures so it can happen This is a daytime event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 27 minutes ago, Fozz said: I can't believe this is even a possibility. Never seen anything like it in all my years of tracking weather. I thought 3/25/2013 was super late back when it happened. This would blow it out of the water in terms of how anomalous and unusual it is. But I'm not a fan of the timing, unless it goes all e12 or e20 uber HECS on us. It will have the dynamics, and it IS going to go all e12 and e20 uber HECS on your back yard. Besides, you have the climo. Enjoy tracking it, then kick back and enjoy immense amounts of snow shellacking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 it's april and the models are showing a potential snowstorm 4 days out, what could possibly go wrong. i'm in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 I like that the 00z GFS is NOT trending further north than previous runs today...I just don’t want to see a repeat of Monday but it does maybe look more south than the runs today too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 so the gfs shows a mecs and stuff. ok, maybe a secs. but it does indeed still show snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 temps are a little iffy going into it, but it's a snow sounding once it gets going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 i think we'd want the system to slow down and not speed up, otherwise there could be some temp issues at the start. it does show surface temps around 60 friday, but dropping to freezing (or even below) saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 Snow depth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 3 minutes ago, 87storms said: temps are a little iffy going into it, but it's a snow sounding once it gets going. Snow sounding is an understatement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 3 minutes ago, 87storms said: temps are a little iffy going into it, but it's a snow sounding once it gets going. Soundings during the event are borderline ridiculous for the first week of april. Decent snow growth, decent rates, and sub freezing surface during the MIDDLE OF THE DAY. And the gfs has a warm bias? It's like 22 degrees at night too. lol. I've never seen anything like this in April since I started tracking regularly 12 years ago. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 i think we'd want the system to slow down and not speed up, otherwise there could be some temp issues at the start. it does show surface temps around 60 friday, but dropping to freezing (or even below) saturday.That almost never works out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 Soundings during the event are borderline ridiculous for the first week of april. Decent snow growth, decent rates, and sub freezing surface during the MIDDLE OF THE DAY. And the gfs has a warm bias? It's like 22 degrees at night too. lol. I've never seen anything like this in April since I started tracking regularly 12 years ago. lol60 to 32 always goes as planned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 Seriously dudes. 8am with surface and wet bulb sub freezing and good omegas. This would be legit mid winter type of snow coming down. Sounding looks amazing until you look at the date and then think the gfs was hacked. This literally never happens like ever and it's mid range. I'm trying hard to find flaws... even surface wind is out of the north...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Soundings during the event are borderline ridiculous for the first week of april. Decent snow growth, decent rates, and sub freezing surface during the MIDDLE OF THE DAY. And the gfs has a warm bias? It's like 22 degrees at night too. lol. I've never seen anything like this in April since I started tracking regularly 12 years ago. lol lol yea. i'd be concerned about a slower infiltration of cold air after a mild day as opposed to jan/feb, but math is math, so if that's what the models are showing maybe we just need to hope that vort is legit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 3 minutes ago, Ji said: 4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Soundings during the event are borderline ridiculous for the first week of april. Decent snow growth, decent rates, and sub freezing surface during the MIDDLE OF THE DAY. And the gfs has a warm bias? It's like 22 degrees at night too. lol. I've never seen anything like this in April since I started tracking regularly 12 years ago. lol 60 to 32 always goes as planned. If this was hr180 I wouldn't give it a second thought. But this is the gfs throwing down these soundings. And it's not like the euro is much different overall. There is potential for an historic April event of the last what? 50 years? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 Seriously dudes. 8am with surface and wet bulb sub freezing and good omegas. This would be legit mid winter type of snow coming down. Sounding looks amazing until you look at the date and then think the gfs was hacked. This literally never happens like ever and it's mid range. I'm trying hard to find flaws... even surface wind is out of the north...lol 7am to noon is accumulating window Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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