SnowLover22 Posted April 4, 2018 Author Share Posted April 4, 2018 12z ECM being north is very bad news. No more wiggle room for SEPA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormman96 Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 Adam Joseph from abc6. Just posted a blog going over the possibilities. One thing he said which I didnt understand. He said the 12z nam from earlier today is showing mainly a rain even for whole philly region ending as a little snow. What am i missing. It wasn’t showing that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLover22 Posted April 4, 2018 Author Share Posted April 4, 2018 Lol 18z NAM is even worse for SEPA at least the philly area. Too early to throw in the towel? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormman96 Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 7 minutes ago, Philadelphia Snow said: Lol 18z NAM is even worse for SEPA at least the philly area. Too early to throw in the towel? If you compare the snowfall map the 6 inch line is further se on 18z then 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 3 hours ago, Stormman96 said: Adam Joseph from abc6. Just posted a blog going over the possibilities. One thing he said which I didnt understand. He said the 12z nam from earlier today is showing mainly a rain even for whole philly region ending as a little snow. What am i missing. It wasn’t showing that? Fake News that's what Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 Wasnt expecting big shift South with 48 hrs lead time in April to put Cape May in the bullseye tbh but thats what we have at this hour. Not saying it will be the end result. Does anyone know what the latest measurable snowfall is historically theyve ever received? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 Glad the N trend stopped yesterday finally. The jump S overnight did give us more wiggle room. These jumps at this range are all too common when energy comes into better sampling areas and onshore out West. We almost expectedly see big changes in one run of guidance once this happens which *usually* is an overcorrection then things tick one way or another thru zero hour. The only thing Im not a huge fan of is the fropa look some guidance moved towards. Hopefully that isnt a trend towards a final outcome. Expect 12z and especially 18z-0z to start ticking N again after this overcorrection phase passes. Wouldnt be impossible but extremely anomalous to miss out on a baro wave with overunning snowfall to suppression this time of year.....that is as long as it remains a wave and doesnt morph into a fropa like I mentioned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
penndotguy Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 Don't get me wrong I like snow and all and a Snowstorm in April would be memorable but enough already I for one am hoping these upcoming threats miss me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 Here ya go [mention=3378]penndotguy[/mention].....6z GFS and ICON continue the push S that began 18z yesterday with the fropa look: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 The trend towards this being a front passage and nothing more at this stage is not good especially with every short range model at 6z having that look. We don't need a north trend but a trend towards an entirely different evolution which is just incredibly unlikely at this range. If that trend continues at 12z it's game over... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLover22 Posted April 5, 2018 Author Share Posted April 5, 2018 1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said: 9 minutes ago, Philadelphia Snow said: True but current trends are not good. For this to work out I would think the south trend would need to stop now. Didnt you make a post a mere 12 hours or so ago that the NAM was a horrible look with its trends N and showing rain for your area and you asked if it was too late to throw in the towel? I did yes but that was when most models were North. Yes your correct things could trend back North but less likely now as lead time shortens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 I did yes but that was when most models were North. Yes your correct things could trend back North but less likely now as lead time shortens.Well, it isnt over just yet and like I suggested, this may be the usual hiccup/overcorrection we almost always see. We will know by 18z if it is indeed an actual trend or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 Hard to believe the once projected historic weekend snow, which vanished then returned on most guidance is now gone for everybody including DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 looks like we have consensus. actually a pretty fitting end to winter if this is indeed the last snow threat this year. models being seemingly locked into a solution in the day 4-6 range only for it to change drastically once the players are on the field. this looks nothing more than a cold front at this point now, oh well. it was pretty amazing that most guidance has been together including on shifts...went from all of the models showing at least a decent wave riding the front giving some snow for all and a solid chance at 6"+ for some to all of the models showing a frontal passage with mood flakes for most and nobody seeing anything more than car topper in 24 hours. That's a pretty dramatic shift 72 hours out not just track wise but complete storm evolution. Crazy that not one single model picked up on this until 18z yesterday. Most were worried about a trend north at 12z yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 Fairly awful bottom falling out event for the MA crew what a winter there we have been extremely lucky by comparison. I have 60" snow in a season loaded with busts lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rockem_sockem_connection Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 Cheers to spring boys Sent from my Pixel XL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 1 minute ago, hurricane1091 said: Cheers to spring boys Sent from my Pixel XL using Tapatalk The Canadian next Tuesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rockem_sockem_connection Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 LolSent from my Pixel XL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 looks like we have consensus. actually a pretty fitting end to winter if this is indeed the last snow threat this year. models being seemingly locked into a solution in the day 4-6 range only for it to change drastically once the players are on the field. this looks nothing more than a cold front at this point now, oh well. it was pretty amazing that most guidance has been together including on shifts...went from all of the models showing at least a decent wave riding the front giving some snow for all and a solid chance at 6"+ for some to all of the models showing a frontal passage with mood flakes for most and nobody seeing anything more than car topper in 24 hours. That's a pretty dramatic shift 72 hours out not just track wise but complete storm evolution. Crazy that not one single model picked up on this until 18z yesterday. Most were worried about a trend north at 12z yesterday.Didnt trend N or S so we were all fooled. Transformed/morphed from a baro wave to a fropa with the snap of a finger. The April 21 system on the 12z GFS will rock! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 Fairly awful bottom falling out event for the MA crew what a winter there we have been extremely lucky by comparison. I have 60" snow in a season loaded with busts lol I need less than a half inch to surpass 60" for the season......thought Saturday was a lock. Maybe tomorrow morning or even next week can surprise produce lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 Cheers to spring boys Sent from my Pixel XL using TapatalkDont look at the LR GFS ha! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 25 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: 44 minutes ago, hurricane1091 said: Cheers to spring boys Sent from my Pixel XL using Tapatalk Dont look at the LR GFS ha! yep, I thought signs of warmth that were showing up in the LR earlier in the week were fools gold. I don't think this pattern goes away that easily. We may have another pattern relaxation before the trough reloads over the east but I full expect us not to be out of the woods yet for cold/snow threats even if they are white rain events by that point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 29 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: 48 minutes ago, hurricane1091 said: Cheers to spring boys Sent from my Pixel XL using Tapatalk Dont look at the LR GFS ha! The anafront snows on Saturday might get you to 60" if we get lucky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 yep, I thought signs of warmth that were showing up in the LR earlier in the week were fools gold. I don't think this pattern goes away that easily. We may have another pattern relaxation before the trough reloads over the east but I full expect us not to be out of the woods yet for cold/snow threats even if they are white rain events by that point.This could be the rare year we record at least a tr in early May. I seriously wouldnt be surprised. Neg NAO and neg AO coming back with a vengeance on some LR guidance. Just silly stuff really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 Would not give up on the weekend quite yet...only need 1.5" to get to the 60" mark. Higher spots over 600 ft like here will no doubt do better...if we get the moisture... Sidenote....greatest sport there is returns to Philly today - Go Phillies!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLover22 Posted April 5, 2018 Author Share Posted April 5, 2018 50 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: 57 minutes ago, The Iceman said: yep, I thought signs of warmth that were showing up in the LR earlier in the week were fools gold. I don't think this pattern goes away that easily. We may have another pattern relaxation before the trough reloads over the east but I full expect us not to be out of the woods yet for cold/snow threats even if they are white rain events by that point. This could be the rare year we record at least a tr in early May. I seriously wouldnt be surprised. Neg NAO and neg AO coming back with a vengeance on some LR guidance. Just silly stuff really. If only this pattern would have started in Jan not March one can only imagine what this winter could have been Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 If only this pattern would have started in Jan not March one can only imagine what this winter could have beenProbably cold and dry tbh. The constant arctic intrusion would likely have overwhelmed the pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted April 5, 2018 Share Posted April 5, 2018 This being more of a frontal boundary, I am not so sure about a shift north. But it's been a good winter. Spring can come as long as we don't go right into summer temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted April 6, 2018 Share Posted April 6, 2018 On 4/4/2018 at 3:18 PM, greenskeeper said: Please miss. No offense to the snow lovers on here, but starting the 2nd weekend in March every year I am in full Little League baseball mode (coach and director of facilities) and this has been the worse spring in a while. You may have gotten your wish, but I was going to suggest sliding practice. Our high school baseball coach had us do that in 2" of wet snow one March, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted April 6, 2018 Share Posted April 6, 2018 6 hours ago, mattinpa said: This being more of a frontal boundary, I am not so sure about a shift north. But it's been a good winter. Spring can come as long as we don't go right into summer temps. Expectations reset pretty low for this one, and yes the last month has been a great way to wind down winter. The thing is if it ain't gonna snow in April I'm more in the mood for sunny and 60F. Looks like we may need to be patient for any more than brief shots at 60 for the next week or two though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.