SnowLover22 Posted April 3, 2018 Share Posted April 3, 2018 This event has had model support for a few days now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted April 3, 2018 Share Posted April 3, 2018 I think we have a good chance to see some snow this weekend but am actually more interested in the following event. That one looks like it has a lot more potential when looking at the H5 evolution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLover22 Posted April 3, 2018 Author Share Posted April 3, 2018 GEFS say game on! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 1 hour ago, wkd said: I think we have a good chance to see some snow this weekend but am actually more interested in the following event. That one looks like it has a lot more potential when looking at the H5 evolution. Followup event is a high risk high reward type scenario where we are going to need ALOT of things to come together properly to achieve a good hit imo. I'll roll the dice with the wave this weekend with the better % at seeing accum snow rather than banking on a rare mid April thread-the-needle MECS/HECS next week personally. Hey, at least it is April and we are still tracking LEGIT THREATS! :-D Gotta love that in and of itself! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 2 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Followup event is a high risk high reward type scenario where we are going to need ALOT of things to come together properly to achieve a good hit imo. I'll roll the dice with the wave this weekend with the better % at seeing accum snow rather than banking on a rare mid April thread-the-needle MECS/HECS next week personally. Hey, at least it is April and we are still tracking LEGIT THREATS! :-D Gotta love that in and of itself! I spent more time tracking stuff in December than I have in some entire seasons. This winter has been ridiculous as far as trackig goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 Absolutely love the fact the NAVGEM is the farthest N model past several runs and most amped up model. That red flag hasnt failed us the entire winter tho many still think its a fluke. Euro ticked a hair N again, nice hit REALLY nice hit for many areas that missed last system. 90 + hours to go. Next 36 hours of modeling should start to get this place jumping imo. Plenty of N members on the GEFS as well. All good signs imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 up sleep walking to the computer and saw the euro output. I really don't care if i get the good stuff or not i want that run to verify for somebody that is 1915 historic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLover22 Posted April 4, 2018 Author Share Posted April 4, 2018 Don’t feel good about this feels like the last event where I end up on southern edge getting nothing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 This is obviously coming north. The warmth in the south this time of year is underplayed right now by the models and will catch up closer to Saturday. This will bring higher heights up the EC. Also, this isn't entirely a SWFE, but it has characteristics of one and all SWFE this season came north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 EPS mean, control run, and many individual members absolutely crush SE PA. Hope we slow down with the continued ticks N a little today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLover22 Posted April 4, 2018 Author Share Posted April 4, 2018 NAM trended colder from 6z vs 00z thought that was good. Want to see that trend continue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 I really want the DC area to get crushed on this one even if it means I miss out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 Man, I can't keep up with these threats Busiest time of the year for me at work(income tax return season) so my spare time for tracking has been close to nil. From what I've seen this morning, this looks pretty good and has the chance to get much better. I think precip will tick up as we get closer. I think accumulating snow looks at least likely...i'm never confident with april events though. We only got an inch the last event that was calling for 3-4 and most april events are like that. An abundance of precip and cold enough air is hard to screw up though...imo we are exactly where we want to be at the moment...this one I think will tick N up to the event and southern areas will have precip issues by the time all is said and done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 HM just tweeted and confirms my thoughts (fears?). Says a N trend is almost a certainty given the changes he is seeing irt strength and timing. Would like to see that bullseye stay South of us thru the rest of the day. Not sure being in the bullseye is what we want until 0z friday earliest. We both could be wrong tho. Like I said, the fact we are tracking still is ridiculous and the GFS at 6z keeps on pumping out tracking chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLover22 Posted April 4, 2018 Author Share Posted April 4, 2018 The NAM confirms my fears screws all of SEPA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormman96 Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 7 minutes ago, Philadelphia Snow said: The NAM confirms my fears screws all of SEPA How so? Looks like 6+. In my area in quakertown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 13 minutes ago, Stormman96 said: How so? Looks like 6+. In my area in quakertown Yeah I don't think screwed was the right word.. lop a few inches off for ratio's but still a fairly decent hit for a lot of SE PA. For extreme SE PA they get a bit screwed on this run but holy crap is it close... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 Long range NAM isn't exactly a beacon of reliability either. It has been good this year, but mostly inside 60 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 GFS looks like it's going to NAM us good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 GFS looks like another tick to the north from 6z. SE PA is going to get crushed on this run...cut off of heavy snow looks to be in Allentown as opposed to Langhorne, PA. Great hit but hopefully not a sign of a runaway N trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 32 minutes ago, The Iceman said: Yeah I don't think screwed was the right word.. lop a few inches off for ratio's but still a fairly decent hit for a lot of SE PA. For extreme SE PA they get a bit screwed on this run but holy crap is it close... the Five counties would NOT see accums anywhere near that with 6 hours of moderate rain followed by six hours of moderate snow. That clown map is just that....a clown map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 Now...the GFS...that is what you want to see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 the only negative about the GFS is the timing...pretty much all falls during the day...rates can overcome that as we have seen but it will definitely hurt totals as opposed to it falling mostly in the evening/overnight. but a slower system may be more apt to be shunted south due to the HP moving in. that high is our saving grace and why this shouldn't come too far north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLover22 Posted April 4, 2018 Author Share Posted April 4, 2018 The North Trend needs to stop now. Gfs came more north from 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 the only way this comes far enough north to screw SE PA is if the system speeds up fairly significantly. otherwise, that high is going to limit how far north this can come. i mean look at the icon, it is much later with the storm and is squashed to the south. timing is key to how far north this comes. with that high moving in, it simply cannot trend much further north without the system speeding up or the high slowing down in its press. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 13 minutes ago, The Iceman said: the only negative about the GFS is the timing...pretty much all falls during the day...rates can overcome that as we have seen but it will definitely hurt totals as opposed to it falling mostly in the evening/overnight. but a slower system may be more apt to be shunted south due to the HP moving in. that high is our saving grace and why this shouldn't come too far north. Yean nah let's snow from 8-6pm, I never recovered getting up at 6 to see two hours of good snow on three hours of sleep. April snow melts no matter what. Btw somehow one last sliver of snow remains on my ice cap lawn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 17 minutes ago, The Iceman said: the only negative about the GFS is the timing...pretty much all falls during the day...rates can overcome that as we have seen but it will definitely hurt totals as opposed to it falling mostly in the evening/overnight. but a slower system may be more apt to be shunted south due to the HP moving in. that high is our saving grace and why this shouldn't come too far north. actually the heaviest snow falls from overnigfht hours (after say 3am) till 7am on the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 3 minutes ago, hazwoper said: actually the heaviest snow falls from overnigfht hours (after say 3am) till 7am on the GFS Not what I want to hear lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 David Murphy channel 6 "some rain maybe mixing with wet snow Saturday" worst tv weather guy for 20 years plus boggles the mind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted April 4, 2018 Share Posted April 4, 2018 The good news the 12z ECM is north and gets the focus on our region! The bad news it cut qpf in half so it looks like Monday morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.