coh Posted April 13, 2018 Share Posted April 13, 2018 On the Buffalo NWS facebook page someone asked if this event would be like the April 2003 storm and the NWS person responded as follows: " its not looking like it will be, that storm was in March of 2003, and this event being in April the ice will have a little harder time to accumulate. " So there you have it. Hope they're right. Seems like rather weak reasoning since this has been an abnormally cold month, more like March than April... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted April 13, 2018 Share Posted April 13, 2018 For one they are idiots cause that storm was in april Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted April 13, 2018 Share Posted April 13, 2018 That "reasoning" is ridiculous. The majority of this ice event will be at night, and being in the month of April will not be relevant...thats very sloppy imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted April 13, 2018 Share Posted April 13, 2018 April 4th into 5th. I don' know who they got working over there but they are leaning hard on climo. Not whats in front of them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted April 13, 2018 Share Posted April 13, 2018 Climo is ok if your forecasting weeks ahead of time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNash Posted April 14, 2018 Share Posted April 14, 2018 KBUF ought to be communicating risk a little better, but I don’t have a problem with them avoiding ISW headlines when the chances of a very serious event are not all that high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted April 14, 2018 Share Posted April 14, 2018 When gfs and euro are agreeing it' starting to get high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coh Posted April 14, 2018 Share Posted April 14, 2018 I think "ought to be communicating risk a little better" is the key point. Most of us on this forum either have meteorological background or are long time weather fanatics (or both). We understand the potential in this system. I don't think that potential is being adequately conveyed by what I'm seeing from the NWS, even though we're less than 24 hours from the start of the event. It seems inconsistent to have "1/2 inch of ice and 45 mph wind gusts" in the zone forecast, while not clearly stating the potential damage that combination could cause. And they're not even acknowledging the fact that some models give us much more ice than that. I've never worked in an operational forecast environment but I find this all very puzzling. This seems to be the exact kind of situation to over-warn so people are prepared for potentially long term power outages, impassable roads, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted April 14, 2018 Share Posted April 14, 2018 Wow look at the national map! Can't remember the last time I saw such a large area under blizzard warnings. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted April 14, 2018 Share Posted April 14, 2018 0zNAM gives BUF a big ice hit!. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted April 14, 2018 Share Posted April 14, 2018 Think you can extend that inch of ice right through Rochester to syr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted April 14, 2018 Share Posted April 14, 2018 0z Hi Res Nam really struggles to get ROC below freezing. Sits at 32 all night and dips to 31 for only an hour or two, might be moderation from Lake Ontario. Places further south with elevation might be the worst hit, such as Wyoming County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted April 14, 2018 Share Posted April 14, 2018 Sleet fest on the 12k nam with some backend snow.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted April 14, 2018 Share Posted April 14, 2018 2' of snow on the west side of this storm!. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted April 14, 2018 Share Posted April 14, 2018 3k nam ice and sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted April 14, 2018 Share Posted April 14, 2018 Gfs gives roc .90 freezing rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southbuffalowx Posted April 14, 2018 Share Posted April 14, 2018 Looks like we might be seeing a trend to the north with the 0z models. The RDPS hardly brings any freezing rain to Buffalo, with no more than .5" anywhere in WNY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southbuffalowx Posted April 14, 2018 Share Posted April 14, 2018 I found this very interesting journal article for Ice to Liquid ratios, and after going through it, and more thoroughly analyzing model output for this event, I'd definitely have to side with the NWS on this. https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/WAF-D-15-0118.1 At high precipitation rates (>0.1 in/hr), freezing rain does not accumulate very efficiently, and obviously, when a model is indicating 1"+ of freezing rain, the actual rate that precipitation was falling at had to be fairly high. So that 1" of freezing rain liquid might accumulate 1/2" of ice at best. Throw in that it seems mesoscale modeling is trending north with the storm, and the effect of the strong April sun, and it doesn't pose the high risk for damage I was thinking earlier. But, we'll just have to wait and see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 14, 2018 Share Posted April 14, 2018 Ice storm warning issued for western NY by BUF for around half inch of ice accumulation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted April 14, 2018 Share Posted April 14, 2018 Wow did not wake up expecting to see an ISW. Guess we’ll see what happens! Also I know April has been cold and more like March as someone said earlier in this thread, but here’s some super crazy stats to back that up. So far this April we are running 7.4 degrees below normal. Not only that but every single day this month has had temperatures below freezing. The average temperature so far for the month is 37.8 degrees which is pretty dang close to the March average temperature of 34.0 degrees. Also intresting if we keep with the trend and finish this month with below average temperatures it’ll be the 5th out of 6th month we finish below average since November with the only above average month being in February (when we had that incredible 2 week warm stretch of 60s and 70s). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted April 14, 2018 Share Posted April 14, 2018 4 hours ago, southbuffalowx said: I found this very interesting journal article for Ice to Liquid ratios, and after going through it, and more thoroughly analyzing model output for this event, I'd definitely have to side with the NWS on this. https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/WAF-D-15-0118.1 At high precipitation rates (>0.1 in/hr), freezing rain does not accumulate very efficiently, and obviously, when a model is indicating 1"+ of freezing rain, the actual rate that precipitation was falling at had to be fairly high. So that 1" of freezing rain liquid might accumulate 1/2" of ice at best. Throw in that it seems mesoscale modeling is trending north with the storm, and the effect of the strong April sun, and it doesn't pose the high risk for damage I was thinking earlier. But, we'll just have to wait and see. Great article. Thanks for posting. Very interesting about the wind impacts on ice accretion. The higher winds (>15kt) that are forecast will likely help the ice that does fall accumulate more efficiently lowering the latent heat release and increasing evaporational cooling and increasing the ice to liquid ratio. Intresting too that the winds forecasted in this event occur in less than 10% of all freezing rain events so all the parameters for this event are pretty rare with a lot of variable outcomes possible. I don’t think the issue with the NWS was for their forecasted amounts of ice so much as the impact that the amount of ice they were forecasting seemed to contradict an advisory headline when they were calling for “around a half an inch of ice accumulation” and forecasting winds of 40+mph. For what they were calling for an ISW or WSW seemed to make more sense when even in their advisory they said “power outages are likley due to downed tree limbs” which is more dangerous and impactful than an advisory and when the general public sees an advisory they don’t think anything of significance is coming. Add to that the fact that their reasoning when asked about it on Twitter was about as poor and uneducated a response imaginable from what I really still do believe is one of the better NWS offices in the country, it really was just frusterating. I’m hoping it was on of their social media interns who posted that response. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted April 14, 2018 Share Posted April 14, 2018 Euro ice map anyone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted April 14, 2018 Share Posted April 14, 2018 5 minutes ago, tim123 said: Euro ice map anyone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted April 14, 2018 Share Posted April 14, 2018 Looks bad north of thruway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted April 14, 2018 Share Posted April 14, 2018 Just now, tim123 said: Looks bad Cut back a lot on the qpf, im interested to see if that continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted April 14, 2018 Share Posted April 14, 2018 Not really just the coverage is less se Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted April 14, 2018 Share Posted April 14, 2018 2 minutes ago, tim123 said: Not really just the coverage is less se That matters for Rochester and Buffalo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted April 14, 2018 Share Posted April 14, 2018 Wish it was snow! Sleet is least impactful winter precip type. I’m not excited. Some will lose power but shouldn’t be a big one. NAM can’t read ice for sh-t Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted April 14, 2018 Share Posted April 14, 2018 Accretion probs from the WPC. About 50% 1/2" and 10-15% for an inch at BUF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted April 14, 2018 Share Posted April 14, 2018 1 hour ago, OSUmetstud said: Cut back a lot on the qpf, im interested to see if that continues. Definitely cut back a lot. Went from 1.2” to .6” at BUF. Intresting for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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