OSUmetstud Posted April 13, 2018 Share Posted April 13, 2018 The number 1 CIPS analog is the April 3-5, 2003 CNY ice storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted April 13, 2018 Share Posted April 13, 2018 Jamestown is sitting at 68 while the ROC is at 43. Pretty impressive front thus far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted April 13, 2018 Share Posted April 13, 2018 75000 lost power in rochester area with that one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted April 13, 2018 Share Posted April 13, 2018 7 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: The number 1 CIPS analog is the April 3-5, 2003 CNY ice storm. Can't imagine there's a lot lof analogs to compare. How close are the synoptic and meso factors for the 2 events? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted April 13, 2018 Share Posted April 13, 2018 This is starting to get a bit ominous. If not right at the lake plains themselves then areas in the north country could be looking at extended power outages...add 2 to 3 inches of rain and this has possible disaster all over it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted April 13, 2018 Share Posted April 13, 2018 1 minute ago, vortmax said: Can't imagine there's a lot lof analogs to compare. How close are the factor for the 2 events? Well it's the closest synoptic set up using many synoptic parameters, CIPS compares to every day. The April 12, 2013 set up was a bad ice storm in the higher elevations north and west of Toronto. http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/DFHR.php?reg=EC&fhr=F036&rundt=2018041312&map=tbl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted April 13, 2018 Share Posted April 13, 2018 1 minute ago, OSUmetstud said: Well it's the closest synoptic set up using many synoptic parameters, CIPS compares to every day. The April 12, 2013 set up was a bad ice storm in the higher elevations north and west of Toronto. http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/DFHR.php?reg=EC&fhr=F036&rundt=2018041312&map=tbl I see how it works. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted April 13, 2018 Share Posted April 13, 2018 Oh fun. I could see BUF and ROC getting 1/2" to 1", I guess we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coh Posted April 13, 2018 Share Posted April 13, 2018 The new NWS discussion (BUF) barely mentions the freezing rain threat except for Jefferson County. I find this absolutely unbelievable. I won't claim to know what is going to happen this weekend, but given the model forecasts it seems almost criminal to brush this aside in this manner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted April 13, 2018 Share Posted April 13, 2018 2 minutes ago, coh said: The new NWS discussion (BUF) barely mentions the freezing rain threat except for Jefferson County. I find this absolutely unbelievable. I won't claim to know what is going to happen this weekend, but given the model forecasts it seems almost criminal to brush this aside in this manner. They have to be coming out with another update. They don't even mention anything about the rest of their forecast area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coh Posted April 13, 2018 Share Posted April 13, 2018 2 minutes ago, vortmax said: They have to be coming out with another update. They don't even mention anything about the rest of their forecast area. I don't know what the heck they are waiting for. The actual zone forecast for Rochester for Sat night is "freezing rain with winds 20-30 mph with gusts to 45 mph". That sounds like it should warrant a winter storm watch (at least) or warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted April 13, 2018 Share Posted April 13, 2018 5 minutes ago, coh said: I don't know what the heck they are waiting for. The actual zone forecast for Rochester for Sat night is "freezing rain with winds 20-30 mph with gusts to 45 mph". That sounds like it should warrant a winter storm watch (at least) or warning. Must be coordinating with other offices and trying to get this one right. It's a low-confidence forecast with tons of bust potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted April 13, 2018 Share Posted April 13, 2018 9 minutes ago, vortmax said: They have to be coming out with another update. They don't even mention anything about the rest of their forecast area. They just updated the products. Expanded the advisory to include the Southern Tier. Changed the wording to “Ice accumulations around a half inch expected”. I would think with those types of accumulations and the strong winds forecast this would definitely be a warning, especially this late in the season. People will take it more seriously then a WWA which people always say is for “insignificant” events. Guess the headline of advisory vs warning won’t make a difference in what actually happens but it just seems to me that this is more warning criteria than not... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted April 13, 2018 Share Posted April 13, 2018 I see 66 at KBGM and 70s in NEPA. Meanwhile, KSYR at 46 last hour. Although with sun trying to poke thru feels like Summer...CNY style. Coastal areas in SNE see this sort of f*ckery a lot also, esp in Spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coh Posted April 13, 2018 Share Posted April 13, 2018 3 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said: They just updated the products. Expanded the advisory to include the Southern Tier. Changed the wording to “Ice accumulations around a half inch expected”. I would think with those types of accumulations and the strong winds forecast this would definitely be a warning, especially this late in the season. People will take it more seriously then a WWA which people always say is for “insignificant” events. Guess the headline of advisory vs warning won’t actually make a difference in what actually happens but it just seems to me that this is more warning criteria than not... Exactly...people need to understand the potential risk here and I don't think the information being put out by BUF does that. Got a new blade for my chainsaw, got fresh gas, batteries, filters and oil for the generator...think I'm about as prepared as can be. We'll see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted April 13, 2018 Share Posted April 13, 2018 Looks like KBUF just isnt buying the model outputs. My gut says this storm just won't be cold enough for significant icing but the models and analogs are ominous for sure. I will also have the chainsaw and generator ready to rock just in case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted April 13, 2018 Share Posted April 13, 2018 Buffalo is a joke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 13, 2018 Share Posted April 13, 2018 Guess I will be telling my grandparents to be ready in case since WWA for them says up to 1/2" ice possible in Amherst Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted April 13, 2018 Share Posted April 13, 2018 So caught up on this icing event I failed to see that it’s nearly 80 degrees near Jamestown.... about 48 here... wow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted April 13, 2018 Share Posted April 13, 2018 Looks like different NWS offices use different standards: Winter Storm Warning URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 303 PM EDT Fri Apr 13 2018 ...Freezing rain expected Saturday morning through Sunday morning... MIZ047>049-053>055-141800- /O.UPG.KDTX.WS.A.0002.180414T0800Z-180415T1600Z/ /O.NEW.KDTX.WS.W.0007.180414T1200Z-180415T1600Z/ Midland-Bay-Huron-Saginaw-Tuscola-Sanilac- Including the cities of Midland, Bay City, Bad Axe, Saginaw, Caro, and Sandusky 303 PM EDT Fri Apr 13 2018 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM SATURDAY TO NOON EDT SUNDAY... * WHAT...Rain will transition to freezing rain during Saturday morning. Freezing rain will mix with sleet at times during the day before transitioning back to freezing rain Saturday night. Total ice accretion of one quarter to one half inch is possible. Strong wind...especially near the Lake Huron shoreline...may result in additional downed trees and power lines. * WHERE...Midland, Bay, Huron, Saginaw, Tuscola and Sanilac Counties. * WHEN...From 8 AM Saturday to noon EDT Sunday. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Power outages and tree damage are likely due to ice. Travel will become hazardous on untreated roads. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Winter Storm Warning for freezing rain means significant ice will make travel very hazardous or impossible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted April 13, 2018 Share Posted April 13, 2018 KBUF doesn't seemed concerned at all over this event... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted April 13, 2018 Share Posted April 13, 2018 19 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: KBUF doesn't seemed concerned at all over this event... I'm guessing it's because they feel we will stay under the critical amounts of ice needed for widespread damage. From past experience we can handle a quarter inch of ice with virtually no problems. At a half inch of ice things start to get dicey with sporadic limb damage but we still maintain for the most part. It's after .5" that things go downhill quickly and I guess they really don't see that as plausible. From past experience this winter, we know that the model outputs for frozen precip are completely ridiculous and often 2, 3 or even 4 times higher than what actually comes to fruition. The wind is a bit of a wild card that could make normally innocent amounts of glaze result in damage..but that is hard to bank on. Buffalo is making a bold stand here. Additionally, Binghamton barely even devotes a full sentence to the freezing rain threat for their northern zones. It's pretty exciting when you don't know what to expect and one outcome could be damn near apocalyptic... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted April 13, 2018 Share Posted April 13, 2018 Gfs now shows almost a inch of freezing rain in rochester Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted April 13, 2018 Share Posted April 13, 2018 Guess they will wait till it turns back to rain to issue a warning. They are kinda pathetic with certain situations Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted April 13, 2018 Share Posted April 13, 2018 Let's just hope this thing doesn't turn into a monster ice storm for everybody's sake! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted April 13, 2018 Share Posted April 13, 2018 11 minutes ago, tim123 said: Guess they will wait till it turns back to rain to issue a warning. They are kinda pathetic with certain situations When is the last time they blew a forecast bad enough that it caused actual tangible issues? I can't really think of one. They missed some snow forecasts this year but they also didnt bite when outputs called for absurd amounts of snow. They do a pretty decent job. Tomorrow night will be a big test though, I can't argue with that. Very exciting. 19 minutes ago, tim123 said: Gfs now shows almost a inch of freezing rain in rochester Divide that number by 2 or 3 and you'll get the actual amount. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted April 13, 2018 Share Posted April 13, 2018 Delta this is not snow. Its rain. Does much better with straight liquid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted April 13, 2018 Share Posted April 13, 2018 Just now, tim123 said: Delta this is not snow. Its rain. Does much better with straight liquid Fair enough, but I don't think you can say that all that rain will freeze, especially if rates are high and temps are marginal. I'm not trying to argue either, just playing devils advocate and trying to understand where they are coming from. I think Buf does a really good job, perhaps I'm biased (and certainly alone in that sentiment around here) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted April 13, 2018 Share Posted April 13, 2018 5 minutes ago, tim123 said: Delta this is not snow. Its rain. Does much better with straight liquid True, but accretion is the key. Not all that precipitation will freeze. I think the key bust situation here is if temperatures stay below freezing longer than they think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted April 13, 2018 Share Posted April 13, 2018 28 29 at night it will freeze good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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