tim123 Posted April 12, 2018 Share Posted April 12, 2018 New gfs just doubled its ice output to .50 from .20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted April 13, 2018 Share Posted April 13, 2018 I find it hard to believe there will be a lot of ice accretion during the day in mid April especially with air temperatures near freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted April 13, 2018 Share Posted April 13, 2018 On paved surace yes will not freeze but trees elevated surfaces another story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted April 13, 2018 Share Posted April 13, 2018 I'm very concerned about one local met in general and thats Todd Santos of WIVB channel 4 buffalo...he seems to be edging temps above what the model outputs are very distinctly showing as if to blow off the information...he did it last night as well...i know one thing for sure is once the NE winds set in they are very hard to move to a southerly direction...I fear and have said numerous times today Saturday night threat is very real and might be crippling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted April 13, 2018 Share Posted April 13, 2018 Kevin Williams in rochester is becoming very concerned for sat into sunday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted April 13, 2018 Share Posted April 13, 2018 He said the euro model would be like 1991 in rochester. Not forecasting that yet but is worried. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted April 13, 2018 Share Posted April 13, 2018 He is on Facebook. Has a 30 min video about storm. Very informative Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coh Posted April 13, 2018 Share Posted April 13, 2018 1 hour ago, Thinksnow18 said: I'm very concerned about one local met in general and thats Todd Santos of WIVB channel 4 buffalo...he seems to be edging temps above what the model outputs are very distinctly showing as if to blow off the information...he did it last night as well...i know one thing for sure is once the NE winds set in they are very hard to move to a southerly direction...I fear and have said numerous times today Saturday night threat is very real and might be crippling. These big cold highs tend to win at this time of year. Risky bet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted April 13, 2018 Share Posted April 13, 2018 Especially north of thruway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxNoob Posted April 13, 2018 Share Posted April 13, 2018 0z NAM = Barf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted April 13, 2018 Share Posted April 13, 2018 Nws is sleeping on this one. 00z man holds serve. 1 to 1.5 frozen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted April 13, 2018 Share Posted April 13, 2018 Anyone have map for ukmet for freezing rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted April 13, 2018 Share Posted April 13, 2018 3k nam with plenty of sleet as well.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted April 13, 2018 Share Posted April 13, 2018 Euro holds 1.25 to 1.5 frozen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted April 13, 2018 Share Posted April 13, 2018 Nws starting to catch on.. Saturday Night Freezing rain before 9pm, then rain between 9pm and 1am, then freezing rain after 1am. Low around 32. Northeast wind 9 to 11 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible. Sunday Freezing rain before 7am, then rain. High near 51. East wind 11 to 14 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted April 13, 2018 Share Posted April 13, 2018 Winter weather advisory. Really. The nws guys are something else Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted April 13, 2018 Share Posted April 13, 2018 6z nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted April 13, 2018 Share Posted April 13, 2018 23 minutes ago, tim123 said: Winter weather advisory. Really. The nws guys are something else I thought WWA were for minor events. To me even .25-.5” seems like plenty to cause power issues and trees down which seems like it should be a WSW especially for the upper end of that range, but what do I know? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CVA01 Posted April 13, 2018 Share Posted April 13, 2018 Threshold for a WSW is half an inch or more. In most areas it's a quarter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted April 13, 2018 Share Posted April 13, 2018 Buffalo discounting has and euro. Gfs has .50 to .75 ice euro has 1.0 plus ice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted April 13, 2018 Share Posted April 13, 2018 Disco Freezing rain is unusual in April, but model guidance consistently shows a nearly ideal set up for a wintry mix for roughly the northern two-thirds of our cwa. It is tempting to discount model guidance because of the date, however unusual late (and early) season events can and do occur. Strong high pressure is forecast to track from Ontario to Quebec this weekend, which will provide a steady supply of cold air and sharpen a strong surface front. Meanwhile, mid-level warm air advection will result in a classic freezing rain sounding with a layer of +4 to +8 C over top of sub- freezing air. Just north of this, it will be colder aloft (but still above freezing) with significant sleet accumulation possible. 00Z model consensus has trended Northeasterly winds will result in significant wave action which may result in lakeshore flooding and erosion along the southwestern shores of Lake Ontario.a bit south/colder with the front and now shows a risk of significant icing extending well south of Lake Ontario. Both ice and sleet is a risk in the North Country where surface temperatures will remain below freezing for most of the weekend. Based on this, we will issue a winter weather advisory for all areas expect the Southern Tier. Depending on the position of the front, this may have to be added. There also is a risk the North Country may approach warning criteria Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted April 13, 2018 Share Posted April 13, 2018 17 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Disco Freezing rain is unusual in April, but model guidance consistently shows a nearly ideal set up for a wintry mix for roughly the northern two-thirds of our cwa. It is tempting to discount model guidance because of the date, however unusual late (and early) season events can and do occur. Strong high pressure is forecast to track from Ontario to Quebec this weekend, which will provide a steady supply of cold air and sharpen a strong surface front. Meanwhile, mid-level warm air advection will result in a classic freezing rain sounding with a layer of +4 to +8 C over top of sub- freezing air. Just north of this, it will be colder aloft (but still above freezing) with significant sleet accumulation possible. 00Z model consensus has trended Northeasterly winds will result in significant wave action which may result in lakeshore flooding and erosion along the southwestern shores of Lake Ontario.a bit south/colder with the front and now shows a risk of significant icing extending well south of Lake Ontario. Both ice and sleet is a risk in the North Country where surface temperatures will remain below freezing for most of the weekend. Based on this, we will issue a winter weather advisory for all areas expect the Southern Tier. Depending on the position of the front, this may have to be added. There also is a risk the North Country may approach warning criteria I would think if the Southern Tier gets added for a WWA that the north country wouldn’t be upgraded to a warning as that means the cold push is further south which I would think would lead to more IP/ possibly even SN up there. Anyway you slice it things could get pretty dicey around most of upstate Saturday Night. Just a gut feeling this is going to have more impact than advertised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted April 13, 2018 Share Posted April 13, 2018 Typical nws downplaying. Buffalo is famous for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted April 13, 2018 Share Posted April 13, 2018 Wpc has western ny in a 20 to 25 percent chance for a inch or more of ice. And 50 to 60 percent chance of greater than half inch. Over the entire event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted April 13, 2018 Share Posted April 13, 2018 41 minutes ago, tim123 said: Wpc has western ny in a 20 to 25 percent chance for a inch or more of ice. And 50 to 60 percent chance of greater than half inch. Over the entire event Yup Pretty high chance for more than .5"... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CVA01 Posted April 13, 2018 Share Posted April 13, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted April 13, 2018 Share Posted April 13, 2018 Don't see this everyday, STW in a WSW area... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted April 13, 2018 Share Posted April 13, 2018 48 minutes ago, tim123 said: Typical nws downplaying. Buffalo is famous for it. It seems far more likely that we'll have a cold rain with minimal ice than a significant crippling event. You have to be very careful when you mention ice storms around here. The NWS does not want to panic people for a VERY low confidence forecast. If things really lock in I'm sure they will quickly ramp up the warnings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted April 13, 2018 Share Posted April 13, 2018 3 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said: It seems far more likely that we'll have a cold rain with minimal ice than a significant crippling event. You have to be very careful when you mention ice storms around here. The NWS does not want to panic people for a VERY low confidence event. LO is the key piece, I think, throwing a wrench in their confidence. Is it warm enough keep the BL from getting too low? Also, when does the majority of the precip fall - day/night? Does anyone have analogs to the 1991 and April 2003 event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted April 13, 2018 Share Posted April 13, 2018 4 minutes ago, LivingstonWx said: So even with just .25-.5” of ice with winds gusting to and over 40mph your in the category 4 index which is pretty significant. Over 1/2” with those kinds of winds and your in the catastrophic category... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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