tim123 Posted April 14, 2018 Share Posted April 14, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted April 14, 2018 Share Posted April 14, 2018 some of that is rain after 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted April 14, 2018 Share Posted April 14, 2018 This is all frozen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted April 14, 2018 Share Posted April 14, 2018 1 minute ago, tim123 said: This is all frozen temps are 32 at 12z, 32 at 15z, and 33 at 18z. Very low efficiency in the beginning to plain rain in the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted April 14, 2018 Share Posted April 14, 2018 Temp is 31 now precip starts probally drops to 29. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted April 14, 2018 Share Posted April 14, 2018 1 minute ago, tim123 said: Temp is 31 now precip starts probally drops to 29. Sunday morning into afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted April 14, 2018 Share Posted April 14, 2018 31 with a td of 25 so room for additional cooling once precip does finally get here but not liking radar at all. I can see KIAG getting .75" freezing rain and KBUF .25" ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted April 14, 2018 Share Posted April 14, 2018 What were low temps progged? Are we getting a few degrees colder, it seems? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted April 14, 2018 Share Posted April 14, 2018 1 minute ago, WesterlyWx said: 31 with a td of 25 so room for additional cooling once precip does finally get here but not liking radar at all. I can see KIAG getting .75" freezing rain and KBUF .25" ... Yeah, I'm kinda curious. I might actually buy the 12z reg qpf a bit more than the ECMWF, since it's kinda meso/convective, ecmwf seems a bit low tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Revracer800 Posted April 14, 2018 Share Posted April 14, 2018 We gonna dodge a bullet here in Oswego County? Everything is still north of here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coh Posted April 14, 2018 Share Posted April 14, 2018 I'm at 30/25 which gives a wet bulb temp of about 28, so I would expect the temp to settle in the 27-29 range once precip starts. With those really low dewpoints to our north and the strong NE flow, I could see temps along the lake plain having a tough time breaking freezing before midday tomorrow (and that might be conservative). Lots of time for ice to build up. Key is where the precip lines up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted April 14, 2018 Share Posted April 14, 2018 Rain in move east now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted April 14, 2018 Share Posted April 14, 2018 6 minutes ago, Revracer800 said: We gonna dodge a bullet here in Oswego County? Everything is still north of here. No Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted April 14, 2018 Share Posted April 14, 2018 everyone will die Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Revracer800 Posted April 14, 2018 Share Posted April 14, 2018 15 minutes ago, tim123 said: No Damn it haha. I just don't want the damn power to go out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted April 14, 2018 Share Posted April 14, 2018 down to 26F with a windchill of 15F in Toronto with moderate sleet. Roads and sidewalks are all covered, parts of the 401 going across the city was shutdown earlier because of all the crashes. London Ontario is at 29F and is already reporting trees down on power lines. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted April 14, 2018 Share Posted April 14, 2018 Niagara county will probably get a bit of ip mixing in with this batch. There's IP whiting the ground on the cams in Cayuga, on the Peninsula. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted April 14, 2018 Share Posted April 14, 2018 2 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: Niagara county will probably get a bit of ip mixing in with this batch. There's IP whiting the ground on the cams in Cayuga, on the Peninsula. Also some thunder and lightning embedded over the Pininsula. Radar returns not super heavy so I wonder if it's from sleet or graupel? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted April 14, 2018 Share Posted April 14, 2018 2 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: Niagara county will probably get a bit of ip mixing in with this batch. There's IP whiting the ground on the cams in Cayuga, on the Peninsula. Also lightning strikes showing up on the Niagara pennisula which is indicative of heavy sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted April 14, 2018 Share Posted April 14, 2018 Just now, WesterlyWx said: Also some thunder and lightning embedded over the Pininsula. Radar returns not super heavy so I wonder if it's from sleet or graupel? Yeah could be. 100 MUCAPE showing up on the mesoanalysis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted April 14, 2018 Share Posted April 14, 2018 19 minutes ago, mississaugasnow said: down to 26F with a windchill of 15F in Toronto with moderate sleet. Roads and sidewalks are all covered, parts of the 401 going across the city was shutdown earlier because of all the crashes. London Ontario is at 29F and is already reporting trees down on power lines. So much for april sun angle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted April 14, 2018 Share Posted April 14, 2018 1 minute ago, tim123 said: So much for april sun angle. Yeah it stopped the Blizzard out in Minnesota and the Dakotas also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted April 14, 2018 Share Posted April 14, 2018 Latest hi res rgem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted April 14, 2018 Share Posted April 14, 2018 Dam. If this happens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted April 14, 2018 Share Posted April 14, 2018 Just now, tim123 said: Dam. If this happens Not gonna happen, no way. Cut that in half. Still impressive but no way ROC sees 1.2" of ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted April 14, 2018 Share Posted April 14, 2018 Ok. 2/3 of a inch with 50 mph winds. Still bad. Very bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted April 14, 2018 Share Posted April 14, 2018 1 minute ago, WesterlyWx said: Not gonna happen, no way. Cut that in half. Still impressive but no way ROC sees 1.2" of ice. Those maps dont take into account any run-off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted April 14, 2018 Share Posted April 14, 2018 Ok take off a .25 run off. Still a inch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted April 14, 2018 Share Posted April 14, 2018 1 minute ago, tim123 said: Ok take off a .25 run off. Still a inch Ill take the under. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted April 14, 2018 Share Posted April 14, 2018 Interesting hi res nam and hrrr keep most of everything north of WNY too. It's like I said about .75 - 1 " IAG, .5" ROC, .3 -.4" BUF It's rgem vs the world lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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