NorthArlington101 Posted April 3, 2018 Share Posted April 3, 2018 Just now, Chinook said: There is not a high risk posted right now. think he means high risk across the board as in tornado/wind/hail probs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted April 3, 2018 Share Posted April 3, 2018 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: think he means high risk across the board as in tornado/wind/hail probs Correct. Sorry my post was confusing....focused on probs in that tor watch area. Mid level lapse rates per SPC meso are 8.5 to 9 in the affected area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted April 3, 2018 Share Posted April 3, 2018 That new tornado watch is not small. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 3, 2018 Share Posted April 3, 2018 Surface winds are badly veered now across much of the warm sector, and dewpoints are underperforming. Not exactly promising if you're looking for anything more than a marginal event. Pretty damning that a shortwave trough of this magnitude can't get any half-decent storms going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted April 3, 2018 Share Posted April 3, 2018 Storms starting to form now sw of St. Louis along the cold front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted April 3, 2018 Share Posted April 3, 2018 10 minutes ago, Chinook said: There is not a high risk posted right now. He is not talking about a high risk but a high likelihood within the Watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted April 3, 2018 Share Posted April 3, 2018 Well, dews are low to mid 60's from southern IL on southward. I'd prefer to have low level dews around 70 for greatest tor threat and non veering winds, but maybe kinematics can compensate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upper Level LOL Posted April 3, 2018 Share Posted April 3, 2018 14 minutes ago, Chinook said: There is not a high risk posted right now. He's talking about the hazard likelihoods that are posted on every watch page http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0027.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted April 3, 2018 Share Posted April 3, 2018 11 minutes ago, andyhb said: Surface winds are badly veered now across much of the warm sector, and dewpoints are underperforming. Not exactly promising if you're looking for anything more than a marginal event. Pretty damning that a shortwave trough of this magnitude can't get any half-decent storms going. The impressive lapse rates (8-9 C/km in the 700-500mb layer) as well. Something you'd look for in a higher-end event, yet the evolution thus far has been very sloppy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxLaura Posted April 3, 2018 Share Posted April 3, 2018 Long-time viewer, first time poster. Currently raining in Columbus with temperatures around 56. NWS has dropped predicted high to 65 and dew points are around 55. Have to walk to an event around 5 today so hoping severe weather holds off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted April 3, 2018 Share Posted April 3, 2018 5 minutes ago, WxLaura said: Long-time viewer, first time poster. Currently raining in Columbus with temperatures around 56. NWS has dropped predicted high to 65 and dew points are around 55. Have to walk to an event around 5 today so hoping severe weather holds off. Welcome to the board and just keep tabs of what transpires with the weather later this afternoon and evening. It can be a little concerning to be near a warm frontal boundary in situations like we have today as storms approach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted April 3, 2018 Share Posted April 3, 2018 The one area that does look good to me is that area in the vicinity of the Ohio Valley... Across SE. Missouri, NE. Arkansas, S. Illinois, W. Kentucky, SW. Indiana. Looks like the best environment should be around there, with 1000-2000 CAPE, low-mid 60's DP's, ~50kts shear. Looks like there could be some longer lived discrete storms that rapidly push across that area, holding the highest threat. As mentioned above by others, badly veered winds will probably keep it from an even higher threat with more tor potential. And the pre-frontal trough moving through with convection won't help the cause either. Outside of that area, I'm still not on-board with anything note worthy anywhere else. Maybe C. Ohio can sneak something interesting in too, but it's a small/narrow window. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted April 3, 2018 Share Posted April 3, 2018 Definitely does NOT feel like a severe threat is on the table locally regardless of having a tor watch and whatever the parameters and radar show. That stuff moving in from western OH would seem a lot more ominous if it weren't 60 degrees, mostly cloudy and still soaking wet from a recent downpour here. Will be interesting to see if that line stays together or begins to weaken as it approaches, my gut is going with option 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sydney Claridge Posted April 3, 2018 Share Posted April 3, 2018 Tornado warning up for the Dayton area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upper Level LOL Posted April 3, 2018 Share Posted April 3, 2018 First tornado warning on what will be a busy day: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachLB Posted April 3, 2018 Share Posted April 3, 2018 Just went over 3 inches. Storm that just went through dropped 1 inch in 20 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted April 3, 2018 Share Posted April 3, 2018 Cell North of Louisville is getting interesting also Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted April 3, 2018 Share Posted April 3, 2018 21 minutes ago, Upper Level LOL said: First tornado warning on what will be a busy day: First tornado warning I've been under in years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 3, 2018 Author Share Posted April 3, 2018 1 hour ago, andyhb said: Surface winds are badly veered now across much of the warm sector, and dewpoints are underperforming. Not exactly promising if you're looking for anything more than a marginal event. Pretty damning that a shortwave trough of this magnitude can't get any half-decent storms going. Yeah the dews are not doing well with eastward extent. Lots of 50s in areas where 60s were progged. A bit better farther west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted April 3, 2018 Share Posted April 3, 2018 We have discrete cells in the line crossing the Mississippi now near St. Louis. Enough shear to keep them discrete but low level veering inhibiting tornado formation so far as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted April 3, 2018 Share Posted April 3, 2018 Tornado warning on embedded supercell structure north of Xenia Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted April 3, 2018 Share Posted April 3, 2018 Decent instability coming up into east central IL on the nose of the low level jet with a small window of better wind profiles per meso. The line along the cold front starting to light up. Like to get one more round before we digress back into hell this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted April 3, 2018 Share Posted April 3, 2018 Xenia! Quote BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service Wilmington OH 442 PM EDT TUE APR 3 2018 The National Weather Service in Wilmington has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Northwestern Fayette County in central Ohio... Southeastern Clark County in west central Ohio... Central Greene County in west central Ohio... Southwestern Madison County in central Ohio... * Until 515 PM EDT. * At 442 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located near Xenia, moving east at 45 mph. HAZARD...Tornado. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. * Locations impacted include... Springfield, Beavercreek, Fairborn, Xenia, Yellow Springs, Wright-Patterson Afb, Cedarville, Enon, Jamestown, South Charleston, Jeffersonville, Wilberforce, Harmony, Lisbon, South Vienna, South Solon, Midway, Clifton, Hustead and Selma. This includes the following Interstates... I-70 in Ohio between mile markers 52 and 68. I-71 in Ohio between mile markers 71 and 74. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted April 3, 2018 Share Posted April 3, 2018 There may have been a TDS shortly after they issued that warning just south of Yellow Springs, OH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JasonOH Posted April 3, 2018 Share Posted April 3, 2018 It just produced. From 15:44-15:48 there was a CC drop correlated with 50+ dBZ reflectivity and co-located with the couplet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted April 3, 2018 Share Posted April 3, 2018 That cell east of Dayton was the best looking cell on velocity we have had all day so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted April 3, 2018 Share Posted April 3, 2018 Local news saying law enforcement spotted a tornado over South Charleston which is east of Dayton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted April 3, 2018 Share Posted April 3, 2018 A few supercells down in Arkansas look by far the most impressive attm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighTechEE Posted April 3, 2018 Share Posted April 3, 2018 We just had TWO separate Tornado Warnings to shelter immediately here at my office just south of WPAFB during the past hour! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted April 3, 2018 Share Posted April 3, 2018 8 minutes ago, jojo762 said: A few supercells down in Arkansas look by far the most impressive attm. Both are now tor warned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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