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Spring Banter, Observation and General Discussion 2018


CapturedNature

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everything going according to plan...

this has been a remarkably, accurately handled scenario with this ordeal ... all week long.  Really, you could have looked at the modeled suite last Sunday night and still as of this morning, you could have been reliant and never looked at another piece of guidance all week.  "Next Memorial Day Weekend, ruined.."

It's an under-the-radar distinction perhaps but in terms of overall complexion of events both sensible to the abstract, this may be one of the best 7 -day performances in my personal awareness of modeling experience and history.  I mean ... 7 days, zippo variance.   Even the intervening days were handled well ... Simply wow -

I bet you a million dollars this won't happen on a 7 day lead for a coastal Nor'easter and blizzard in the winter... No - it's only going to be an award earned when no sanely sentient being would ever imaginatively want a day like today, ... let alone, having said characteristic fall on a critical out-doors calendar time.  

The only consolation - if one can call it that.. - in return is that we just went through four consecutive days of near or exceeding 80 F across SNE proper, with > 50 % sun by a large spread... Low DPs, too, giving some ambience to paradise. Having a day like today ... proooobably not the most climatologically unsound thing to have ever happened after "enduring" of string of days like we just did.  It's just that like Satan always works when you make that deal, it takes the cost at perfectly the wrong time.

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Kevin will love the 12z oper. GFS with it's 3,000 mile CAD ... heh - wow...

I've never seen a northern hemisphere so hell-bent obsessed with keeping summer at bay ... it's ..incredible really.

Yet, we're above normal.  Fascinating..

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2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Kevin will love the 12z oper. GFS with it's 3,000 mile CAD ... heh - wow...

I've never seen a northern hemisphere so hell-bent obsessed with keeping summer at bay ... it's ..incredible really.

Yet, we're above normal.  Fascinating..

I've been on that bandwagon for a while now. It's been grey, dismal and damp for too long and it just doesn't feel like it's as late in the season as it is but the avg temp is about 4-5* above normal :fever:

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4 hours ago, gravitylover said:

I've been on that bandwagon for a while now. It's been grey, dismal and damp for too long and it just doesn't feel like it's as late in the season as it is but the avg temp is about 4-5* above normal :fever:

I guess to be fair ..., we just had four days of > 60 % sun amid 74 to 88 F type high temps... It really hasn't been that bad.  

I know what you mean though  - I've been trying to put that into perspective, why it seems the opposite thing?  I think part of that might be a psychological hang-over from the unrelenting cold and wet/white/sleety April...  It just pushed into obscene lateness ..not so much for anomaly even, but just for the persistent squashed-at-all-times relative to averages. I've opined in the past what I think of April and well... it proved my case.  Some years...well, most years, it's at least somewhat better but that one took the dogschit cake, molded it, fed it to magnets, and shat it down our throats. And just wouldn't stop. 

So now we are left with this like smoldering P.T.S.D.  Any time a car backfires we jump into the bushes and take cover. That's what these run-ins with BDs mean to us now, even though they're more like climate friendly for this particular region.

Same kinda goes for modeled solution like the GFS's recent cycles that have the entire troposphere moving from east toward the west from Baffin Island to the Va Capes ...seems abusively adding salt to those old wounds.

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1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I guess to be fair ..., we just had four days of > 60 % sun amid 74 to 88 F type high temps... It really hasn't been that bad.  

I know we've probably had a "nicer" May up north in terms of top 10 style days based on a lot of the posts in here... 

But the biggest indication that it's been a nice month to me is not the +1.5 departure, but the actual high/low means.

For MVL down the street, the average high has been 69.9F while the average minimum is 39.5F.

69.9/39.5 is a 30.4 degree difference in the mean max/min and it's very hard to get that sort of separation without A LOT of sunny/clear high diurnal spread days.  

No way would you ever see a >30F spread in an entire month's max/min in an even remotely cloudy month.  At least 3/4ths of the days have been the low-dew, high diurnal spread stuff that can only come from clear skies.

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My home town of Baltimore got slammed with T storms today.  SW burbs of Baltimore took the big hit.   Looks like "the 1000 year flood" that hit Ellicott City in 2016 just got repeated. and first reports it crested higher.  Hope there were no deaths.  Water came up very quickly down main street up to the 2nd floors and then receded just as quick.  Looking at the Underground Weather Stations Im seeing some totals in the area from Ellicott City to Catonsville of 9-13".   One station I just clicked on reports 13.3".   

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My home town of Baltimore got slammed with T storms today.  SW burbs of Baltimore took the big hit.   Looks like "the 1000 year flood" that hit Ellicott City in 2016 just got repeated. and first reports it crested higher.  Hope there were no deaths.   Looking at the Underground Weather Stations Im seeing some totals in the area from Ellicott City to Catonsville of 9-13".   One station I just clicked on reports 13.3".   
The videos were impressive.

Sent from my Pixel 2 using Tapatalk

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