April Mid/Long Range & Disco

[Jebman]

2 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

This is kinda crazy. Usually snow in April is a fluke that pops up short range not a long range track. And the gefs has some Day 8-10 hits and even a couple massive Day 10-15 hits mixed in as they bomb some storms as the pattern breaks down around the 15th. That's just insane though. One member gives a big snow the 15-16th.  I've never seen ensembles consistently spit out high snowfall run after run after run even in late March let alone April. Just a freakish pattern and if we can get just one of these threats to hit something we will remember forever. 

You have the Climo. You have a good chance of getting a decent shellacking of snow this month, given the pattern.

[Ralph Wiggum]

That's just what I was thinking  

I had to go to youtube to relive some of those classic ads. Hysterical!

[SnowGolfBro]

All we need now is drought guy and the three Amigos will be back together again!

[olafminesaw]

Looking similar to 12z so far.

[yoda]

00z looks closer to 12z than 18z... which I guess is a bit better for us lol

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, olafminesaw said:

Looking similar to 12z so far.

Lead wave looks stronger. Our threat looks weaker. My guess is it goes south this run. 

[yoda]

4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Lead wave looks stronger. Our threat looks weaker. My guess is it goes south this run. 

Southish... it's raining in NC this run... snow up to EZF almost... S VA ftw

[paulythegun]

Last few GFS runs

Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk

[psuhoffman]

Gfs ggem both south and weaker waves. Icon trended south too. But im sure some will say it's just where we want it. 

[olafminesaw]

C O N S I S T E N C Y

 

[psuhoffman]

The day 7/8 threat looks healthier on the guidance right now. But that could change. Just pointing it out. The day 5 wave looks squashed at h5 behind the system bombing in New England. 

[RedSky]

1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said:

That's just what I was thinking  

I had to go to youtube to relive some of those classic ads. Hysterical!

GFS is the real model of genius here lol

[SnowGolfBro]

4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Gfs ggem both south and weaker waves. Icon trended south too. But im sure some will say it's just where we want it. 

It’s better than North. Based on the the last few runs not sure what makes anyone think the next run won’t be significantly different. What we can say is there will be a storm and it will be this weekend. Where is the million dollar question

[Amped]

50 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The day 7/8 threat looks healthier on the guidance right now. But that could change. Just pointing it out. The day 5 wave looks squashed at h5 behind the system bombing in New England. 

That things a Typhoon enhanced firehose coming into the WC.  Don't know how it stays suppressed like the CMC and Euro are showing. They somehow hurdle it over the PNA ridge and the PNA ridge stays intact. The 50/50 low isn't tied down like 2/5/2010 so that won't help much if it reforms in the plains.

[yoda]

FWIW, 00z UKIE is a miss to the south

[Cobalt]

Euro just where we want it. 6" line 30 miles south of D.C. (Kuchera)


.

[CAPE]

This thing could end up weak and flat, and in that case yeah it could slide to our south, but then who would care?

I think it comes north and the 0z Euro is close, actually for DC and my yard its acceptable now. Better just to the south.

 

eta- not saying I think this will be the ultimate outcome- just relaying what the op run is depicting.

[CAPE]

[CAPE]

7 hours ago, Ji said:

it feels like we have had weenie runs most of the winter and nothing has panned out. Its just a winter where it does not want to snow

Yeah and it is Spring now. Yes its an anomalous h5 pattern and its fun to track the modeled potential snow, but no one should be surprised or disappointed if this ends up much like yesterday morning's event. If we do get a wave of low pressure tracking close enough to precipitate, the most likely outcome (outside of the high elevations to the west) is rain or rain/snow tv. Sure there are scenarios, but on April 7-8, literally everything would have to align for significant accumulating snow to occur in this region at the lower elevations.

[LP08]

6z GFS was further North than 0z getting decent snow to the cities...

[SnowLover22]

GEFS mean is very good

[psuhoffman]

2 hours ago, losetoa6 said:

Eps made a nice jump north with Saturday...lots of nice hits . I wonder if day 7 might be the bigger threat though. Indications on the Eps......and the 6z Gfs even tries to cut a sharp trough at day  7 now

But that would be mid April LOL.  Craziness 

They are both threats but in different ways.

The day 5 system is a progressive baroclinic wave. It's not an amplified system and it's doesn't have much upper level support.  It will be in and out quick also. But what it has working for it is an incredible anomalous cold airmass pressing in April creating a great deal of potential energy along the front. So a simple wave can work fine.  Look what just happened to our north with barely a ripple in the atmosphere along the last boundary. This has more potential then that did. 

The day 7-10 period has more upper support. The trough looks to be trying a last amplification before it breaks down. That period has more upper level support for a more dynamic system. But it has less fresh arctic cold to work with. It would be plenty fine in winter, it's only 2-3 day old from a direct arctic discharge but in April that might not be good enough. But there is a shotgun effect of systems splattered around us in that period and some pop either an IVT or even a ccb over our area and are able to cool us enough to snow.  It's interesting at least. Just taking it all one threat at a time but the whole period looks fun. 

[stormtracker]

31 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

They are both threats but in different ways.

The day 5 system is a progressive baroclinic wave. It's not an amplified system and it's doesn't have much upper level support.  It will be in and out quick also. But what it has working for it is an incredible anomalous cold airmass pressing in April creating a great deal of potential energy along the front. So a simple wave can work fine.  Look what just happened to our north with barely a ripple in the atmosphere along the last boundary. This has more potential then that did. 

The day 7-10 period has more upper support. The trough looks to be trying a last amplification before it breaks down. That period has more upper level support for a more dynamic system. But it has less fresh arctic cold to work with. It would be plenty fine in winter, it's only 2-3 day old from a direct arctic discharge but in April that might not be good enough. But there is a shotgun effect of systems splattered around us in that period and some pop either an IVT or even a ccb over our area and are able to cool us enough to snow.  It's interesting at least. Just taking it all one threat at a time but the whole period looks fun. 

I love you to death, but I couldn't care less about the d7 thing.  For you, yes, I understand..but every day in April is precious to us if we want some anomalous snow event down here.  Hell, we aren't even supposed to be talking about snow in April in the metro areas.  So I need the d4.5 thing to work out.  After that, we're dead here.  

[StantonParkHoya]

PSU will be talking about threats for May soon

[LP08]

11 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

I love you to death, but I couldn't care less about the d7 thing.  For you, yes, I understand..but every day in April is precious to us if we want some anomalous snow event down here.  Hell, we aren't even supposed to be talking about snow in April in the metro areas.  So I need the d4.5 thing to work out.  After that, we're dead here.  

Its the best chance for us down here.  The soundings on the 6z GFS are silly.  ~32 degrees at 18z on Saturday on April 7th?  Thats a serious airmass and if we could sneak into the heavier snow, I wouldn't be suprised if its a few tics colder.  It would be a fun 12 hours overnight and the best part, its all vaporized by noon on Sunday.

[psuhoffman]

18 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

I love you to death, but I couldn't care less about the d7 thing.  For you, yes, I understand..but every day in April is precious to us if we want some anomalous snow event down here.  Hell, we aren't even supposed to be talking about snow in April in the metro areas.  So I need the d4.5 thing to work out.  After that, we're dead here.  

No offense taken. I agree that our best chance (even up here) is by far the weekend system. It's closer which makes it even happening higher probability plus the climo degradation issue you point out. And it has the colder airmass to work with and that matters more then anything else this time of year. So your assessment is 100%. 

My summary of that day 7-10 period wasn't meant to suggest it's as much a threat or a better one than the sat 4-5 one. Just pointing out the synoptic setup for each. I agree that the potential for that is less and even more significantly so for the 95 corridor. That setup might have some potential for elevated areas. But it's hella far out so the whole look could change. Probably will. The one exception is if something bombs on the coast and death bands the coastal plain given the still cold antecedent airmass its possible it could snow. But yea that's not something to be tracking seriously at range in April. Keeping an eye on the period though. That's all. 

The first threat is getting into range of taking somewhat seriously now though. 

[psuhoffman]

@stormtracker

one thing about the climo degradation issue...it is real everyday but we thought we were done after the march 22 storm. Then this threat. Now one more might be presenting. Yea it's more and more ludicrous every day. But we are kind of already entering crazy anomaly territory now and it's only 2 days later not a week so I'm not sure the difference between April 7 and April 9th is all that big a deal in and of itself. Both are crazy unlikely on the climo side. 

But i totally agree there are lots of other reasons like colder airmass and less moving parts and closer timeframe that when combined with climo mean the Saturday threat is the better one and likely the last one for D.C.  

[psuhoffman]

24 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

PSU will be talking about threats for May soon

Better not be. Baby is due May 13th and dealing with snow was not in the plans. After next week I really do hope it warms up and this is over. And I think it is. Things look to be finally breaking down. 

[psuhoffman]

I'm not posting this as any evidence for outcome just to end the "it's usually the most progressive model" thing. Yes the Nogaps then Navgem had a progressive bias and maybe overall it still does but for a while now it's been one of the least progressive solutions on east coast systems and yet we keep seeing posts with the tag "and it usually has a progressive bias". I don't think so anymore. 

[87storms]

saturday looked a bit progressive on the 6z gfs and next week looks a bit north'ish.  would be cool if one of those trends in our favor.  saturday might be easier here imo.  next week kinda has that miller B'ish look where we need the coastal to form in the right spot.  better upside, though.