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April Mid/Long Range & Disco


NorthArlington101

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2 minutes ago, SlamSlam said:

Did South Carolina lose their April snowstorm? Did Ji gain snow this run?

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G891A using Tapatalk
 

Euro south...GFS north...5 days until game time...sounds somewhat familiar.  

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1 minute ago, showmethesnow said:

I would think short of light rates that this would favor snow. Accumulating snow is another story though.

Of course we are talking DC, so you know how that goes. :)

It looks like a rapid thump.  

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9 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

GEFS is an improvement. 2" into DCA. No southern max anymore.

k3Lw56o.png

If you are rooting for snow in DC, you probably shouldn't be too thrilled with the 18z op or ens. I would root for members with southern solutions for several more runs. Highly doubt suppression will be the problem. After 12z I thought it would be "uncomfortably" back north in a run or 2. Its going to be April the eighth..not impossible for it to work out, just really tough.

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1 hour ago, Amped said:

GFS now shows an Anafront, so the event type has changed.  We had a warmfront moving into an arctic high yesterday.Not that it makes a huge difference.

I liked what the GFS was showing yesterday.  Anafont type deals ussually end up to amped and in,April I really don't see how this would work out.Yesterday the GFS had a  system attacking the arttic high and giving a big front end thump.

Meh We will see. 

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9 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

If you are rooting for snow in DC, you probably shouldn't be too thrilled with the 18z op or ens. I would root for members with southern solutions for several more runs. Highly doubt suppression will be the problem. After 12z I thought it would be "uncomfortably" back north in a run or 2. Its going to be April the eighth..not impossible for it to work out, just really tough.

GFS has been jumping around since this morning... Euro has been solid holding to our south and 12z UKMET was likely the high point.  So long way to go as the models turn 

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27 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

If you are rooting for snow in DC, you probably shouldn't be too thrilled with the 18z op or ens. I would root for members with southern solutions for several more runs. Highly doubt suppression will be the problem. After 12z I thought it would be "uncomfortably" back north in a run or 2. Its going to be April the eighth..not impossible for it to work out, just really tough.

This is kinda crazy. Usually snow in April is a fluke that pops up short range not a long range track. And the gefs has some Day 8-10 hits and even a couple massive Day 10-15 hits mixed in as they bomb some storms as the pattern breaks down around the 15th. That's just insane though. One member gives a big snow the 15-16th.  I've never seen ensembles consistently spit out high snowfall run after run after run even in late March let alone April. Just a freakish pattern and if we can get just one of these threats to hit something we will remember forever. 

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11 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

It's super rare territory for sure . I was mentioning yesterday that Philly pulled the hat trick in April 1841 with grand total of near 20"  for the 3 storm total.  Insane in the membrane. 

You know it’s rare when we have to go back to the 19th century.  Who even knows if the records were accurate.  I’m sure there were weenies back then.  

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7 minutes ago, peribonca said:

Since we're waiting for the 0z models and have a bit of downtime can someone explain a bit more what makes this pattern so unique. The NAO is mostly neutral/positive for the next two weeks. The AO is quite negative... is that the main ingredient?

I did notice the whole pattern is blocked up.  There is a strong low SE of GL holding a high below it with a low near the 50/50 location which, looking at 18z, moves east allowing the Saturday storm to come North.  6z had it further SW forcing the storm south.  Move that low and it changes the equation.  This doesn’t look like a CAD scenario with strong high in NE.  

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12 minutes ago, peribonca said:

Since we're waiting for the 0z models and have a bit of downtime can someone explain a bit more what makes this pattern so unique. The NAO is mostly neutral/positive for the next two weeks. The AO is quite negative... is that the main ingredient?

It's that Bering Sea block, no doubt in my mind. Of course it takes awhile for the piece over Canada to migrate but this is the catalyst for all that follows.

gfs_z500a_nhem_2.png

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1 minute ago, Scraff said:

I bet those folks even had a JI.

I’m laughing imagining weenies back then.

”Aye it was up to me knees, no doubt almost two foot-lengths at the edge of the thicket. Dirt paths had little in the way o’ depth, but on less-travelled walks there was something of the better part of a foot. A storm of this magnitude in April, despite the sun’s rays cast harshly upon the soil but a day ago, snow still was able to accumulate, and rather swiftly at that.”

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1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

This is kinda crazy. Usually snow in April is a fluke that pops up short range not a long range track. And the gefs has some Day 8-10 hits and even a couple massive Day 10-15 hits mixed in as they bomb some storms as the pattern breaks down around the 15th. That's just insane though. One member gives a big snow the 15-16th.  I've never seen ensembles consistently spit out high snowfall run after run after run even in late March let alone April. Just a freakish pattern and if we can get just one of these threats to hit something we will remember forever. 

it feels like we have had weenie runs most of the winter and nothing has panned out. Its just a winter where it does not want to snow

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8 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said:

These snow maps show the climo possibility but.. "omg a cold pattern can do this!" . Snow is rare. I've had 22" and the average is 30" and it's like??

You have a perfect record this season of making posts that are impossible for anyone on this planet to comprehend.  So here’s to you insane poster dude...you are at the top of your game.  

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6 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

You have a perfect record this season of making posts that are impossible for anyone on this planet to comprehend.  So here’s to you insane poster dude...you are at the top of your game.  

We are good at wasting cold, or there is something more serious afoot. Both options suck.

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13 minutes ago, Vice-Regent said:

We are good at wasting cold, or there is something more serious afoot. Both options suck.

And we salute you..trusty sidekick and perhaps a few hundred more universes below normal...together you put the W in WTF.  

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