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April Mid/Long Range & Disco


NorthArlington101

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3 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Yeah let's see how often that happened this season...(what, maybe once or twice out of 10 times? Lol) Suppression has been the jokeer villain all winter (although the fact that such a potential party pooper would even still be a threat in April is surprising to my novice eyes...I mean c'mon...it's APRIL! Shouldn't things come north more easily by now? I guess this is when @psuhoffman comes in and says "not necessarily", right? Lol)

Not necessarily. Lol. Suppression is more about the flow then temps. Something can get suppressed in June it's just we don't notice since it's rain either way.  

We also had a healthy mix of things go north and south but I'm not in the camp of wanting it to look suppressed. Guidance is better then it was years ago. Not on details from day 5 but the general look at range hasn't been way off. The times we needed some massive trend it hasn't worked. I'd rather the euro look like the U.K.  

But as I said the period is noisy AF with waves coming across rapid fire with an anomalously south arctic boundary and increased baroclinicity because it's April. It's incredibly volitile looking so I'm not rushing to judgement. 

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21 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

There are several waves playing around in our threat window day 5-10. Good news is after that this is OVER!!!!  Seriously over. The blocking is breaking down and we look to torch by the 13tg I think.  After that even if it reloads I doubt it will make much difference for us other then a few days in the 50/60s vs 70/80s. 

Thank God for that.  I have been hoping for a SE ridge to kill off this drawn out, horrid, torturous "winter" for weeks now.  By the start of next winter, I'll be closing in on 36 months since the last significant snow.  What scares me though is I don't have the law of averages to count on since this was actually a snowy winter literally everywhere else but here.

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1 hour ago, SnowGolfBro said:

This is a good look for us. It’s not like we need a 1000 mile adjustment north. Hell if this thing just ticks a bit here a bit there over the next few days we will be in the sweet spot. 

Do or die coming up.  18z.  Good buzz or bad buzz.  Looking for that low north of Maine and where it goes.  

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