87storms Posted April 2, 2018 Share Posted April 2, 2018 1 hour ago, BristowWx said: No doubt we have a lot of wild solutions on the op runs next couple days. 18z was near perfect for this time of year. Had that 850 tracked to S KY it would have been a run for the ages. it's been such a strong winter for the beaches that maybe it really will take until april to get ours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted April 2, 2018 Share Posted April 2, 2018 The timing of this fantasy storm reminds me of my childhood and why I became a meteorologist: Whenever anyone asks why I decided to become a meteorologist, I simply mention the April 8-10th blizzard of 1973; I grew up on a farm in northeast Iowa. https://nws.weather.gov/blog/nwsdesmoines/2016/04/10/april-8-10-1973-iowa-blizzard/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted April 2, 2018 Share Posted April 2, 2018 1 hour ago, BristowWx said: By periodically do you mean every single run for the next 6 days? Cmon you know it’s true. No....NOT this time, lol Probably will check here a couple times a day and if it still looks interesting by like Friday or so, perhaps model run watching...(but even then I will have my doubts because of both the month and just how many times this block has pulled the rug out...mercy.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted April 2, 2018 Share Posted April 2, 2018 25 minutes ago, dallen7908 said: The timing of this fantasy storm reminds me of my childhood and why I became a meteorologist: Whenever anyone asks why I decided to become a meteorologist, I simply mention the April 8-10th blizzard of 1973; I grew up on a farm in northeast Iowa. https://nws.weather.gov/blog/nwsdesmoines/2016/04/10/april-8-10-1973-iowa-blizzard/ Why don't you have a red-tag? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted April 2, 2018 Share Posted April 2, 2018 7 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: No....NOT this time, lol Probably will check here a couple times a day and if it still looks interesting by like Friday or so, perhaps model run watching...(but even then I will have my doubts because of both the month and just how many times this block has pulled the rug out...mercy.) Roger. Will put you down as a maybe. Lol. I know I will wake up around 230 am and wander downstairs to check in. Jeb will be up. He never sleeps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted April 2, 2018 Share Posted April 2, 2018 1 hour ago, dallen7908 said: The timing of this fantasy storm reminds me of my childhood and why I became a meteorologist: Whenever anyone asks why I decided to become a meteorologist, I simply mention the April 8-10th blizzard of 1973; I grew up on a farm in northeast Iowa. https://nws.weather.gov/blog/nwsdesmoines/2016/04/10/april-8-10-1973-iowa-blizzard/ mine was probably feb 87...except i ended up in IT. still sometimes wonder if i messed that up lol. if anything, i definitely fit the storm chaser personality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted April 2, 2018 Share Posted April 2, 2018 This seems to support a "new pattern El Nino" which I'm not really believing yet. The large cutoff PV in April is usually a sign of a big transition. It might verify as a more pronounced SE ridge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltimoreguy Posted April 2, 2018 Share Posted April 2, 2018 A snow storm during peak cherry blossom weekend would be an all-timer. Could be interesting running the Cherry Blossom 10-miler next Sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestminsterSnowCapitalMA Posted April 2, 2018 Share Posted April 2, 2018 biggest run on the gfs since 1996 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestminsterSnowCapitalMA Posted April 2, 2018 Share Posted April 2, 2018 definitely going to get some backend snow on april 7th How does it go? 516 line has to get down to mid new jersey for there to be a blockbuster? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted April 2, 2018 Share Posted April 2, 2018 Suppression, suppression methinks. The storm must walk the tightrope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestminsterSnowCapitalMA Posted April 2, 2018 Share Posted April 2, 2018 DONT WORRY ITS JUST A MYRTLE BEACH STORM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 2, 2018 Share Posted April 2, 2018 Lol NC and NW SC getting decent snow on the GFS... 3 to 5 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted April 2, 2018 Share Posted April 2, 2018 Lawd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 2, 2018 Share Posted April 2, 2018 42 at DCA at 00z Sunday while RAH in NC are in the upper 20s to 30 degrees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestminsterSnowCapitalMA Posted April 2, 2018 Share Posted April 2, 2018 Snow hole of truth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted April 2, 2018 Share Posted April 2, 2018 LawdMust mean we have to wait for May to get out of this suppression stuff . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted April 2, 2018 Share Posted April 2, 2018 PV lingers back and the shortwave doesn't dig. It's a double fail on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestminsterSnowCapitalMA Posted April 2, 2018 Share Posted April 2, 2018 Well this sucks. Finally thought i was gonna get some plums this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 2, 2018 Share Posted April 2, 2018 00z CMC not as good as 12z, but still decent for EZF and south to the VA/NC border... DCA gets 2 to 3. Whole system shifted south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted April 2, 2018 Share Posted April 2, 2018 I doubt the potential weekend storm will be that far south. I am inclined to go with the seasonal north trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted April 2, 2018 Share Posted April 2, 2018 The UKMMET seems to be in the suppressed camp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted April 2, 2018 Share Posted April 2, 2018 2 hours ago, losetoa6 said: Eps shifted se some from 12z but still a lot of decent hits and for day 6 this isn't a bad place to be . Yes. Among the EPS members are some misses south, most of which are flat and weak. Plenty of hits up our way and a better run overall for I-95 and east, and also down towards Richmond. Have to wait and see if the suppressed/flat idea holds up- I have my doubts, but given the h5 look it is possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted April 2, 2018 Share Posted April 2, 2018 Don't really have the time at this moment but quickly glancing at things @ 500 mb I have to wonder if the models may be moving towards a different solution on how they want to handle next weekends storm. Would not be surprised if over the coming days we see more amplification in the east with the trough where instead of dealing with the low sliding underneath us (W to E track) then OTS we instead see an intensifying low come up from the south running close to the benchmark in a more typical NEaster fashion. If this is the case we should begin to see the models trending at 500s to more pronounced troughing extending into the 50/50 region and ridging/higher heights starting to show up in front of the trough moving into the east. This setup and scenario was what the models were somewhat suggestive of in my mind just 5-7 days ago and I have to wonder if they may be moving back to it. Ignoring the possible evolution I have suggested above and going with what the models have now I am not so sure I would dismiss a southern/suppressed solution for those who would at this time even though we are in April. I can quite easily see how this could end up a NC snowstorm. At this point I am fairly confident we do see a decent storm in the east and not some weak/washed out system that some of the models have on occasion suggested. About the only question in my mind at this point is where it will impact and at this time I think the odds are favorable for our region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted April 2, 2018 Author Share Posted April 2, 2018 6z GFS similarly squashed down to South Carolina. Would truly be a horrible way to end things. Good thing it’s probably wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted April 2, 2018 Share Posted April 2, 2018 Though South Carolina getting snow in April would be an appropriate middle finger from this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted April 2, 2018 Share Posted April 2, 2018 38 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: 6z GFS similarly squashed down to South Carolina. Would truly be a horrible way to end things. Good thing it’s probably wrong. Its also a good thing I don't care one way or another at this point. Winter is over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted April 2, 2018 Share Posted April 2, 2018 The cold front in a few days could be nice, as it has a W-E orientation which is extreme temperature drops in short period. The April 6-8 storms probably won't have the cold front plow in the SE ridge as much and the later wave could ride up NE, maybe so far to give us rain. I'd worry about lack of precip though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted April 2, 2018 Share Posted April 2, 2018 1 hour ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: The cold front in a few days could be nice, as it has a W-E orientation which is extreme temperature drops in short period. The April 6-8 storms probably won't have the cold front plow in the SE ridge as much and the later wave could ride up NE, maybe so far to give us rain. I'd worry about lack of precip though Hmm. I actually agree with @showmethesnow that an evolution to a more Northern and significant storm is possible later in the week. Colder as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted April 2, 2018 Share Posted April 2, 2018 As others have said, it would be a fitting end to get screwed by a major snowstorm sliding south of us IN APRIL. I'm of the opinion that it absolutely could happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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