April Mid/Long Range & Disco

[psuhoffman]

9 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

This seems not encouraging for a 18-19 winter Nino.

 

 

P.S.  Where da fuq is @Bob Chill with the 2018-19 Winter Thread!?!

I can remember some pretty crappy neutral following Nina winters btw. 1986. 1997. 2002. 2013. None leave me inspired. Next year will probably suck. If I had to guess right now over under I would bet I get less snow next year then I did this year considering every neutral following a Nina in the last 30 years was worse. 

[Cobalt]

4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I can remember some pretty crappy neutral following Nina winters btw. 1986. 1997. 2002. 2013. None leave me inspired. Next year will probably suck. If I had to guess right now over under I would bet I get less snow next year then I did this year considering every neutral following a Nina in the last 30 years was worse. 

From what I've seen/heard, 1997 was a NE winter (started late?), 2002 was just a torch for the entire eastern US, 2013 was back luck, Miller B's & a New England winter. Oh the ways we can fail

[psuhoffman]

5 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

From what I've seen/heard, 1997 was a NE winter (started late?), 2002 was just a torch for the entire eastern US, 2013 was back luck, Miller B's & a New England winter. Oh the ways we can fail

They were all worse then this winter was and everyone and their mother was whining constantly this year.  That's as much as I'm going to analyze that. 

[psuhoffman]

Bottom line is neutrals following Nina are typically crap. If we have anything other then a Nino (and that's not looking super likely) better just assume it's gonna suck. 

[gymengineer]

86 was worse relative to climo the further north you go, it looks like. It was double this season’s total at DCA and hit average with a nice active February.

[Cobalt]

1997 was decent towards IAD. 17.8" there vs 15.3" at BWI & 6.7" @ DCA 

 

[Maestrobjwa]

56 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I can remember some pretty crappy neutral following Nina winters btw. 1986. 1997. 2002. 2013. None leave me inspired. Next year will probably suck. If I had to guess right now over under I would bet I get less snow next year then I did this year considering every neutral following a Nina in the last 30 years was worse. 

Hey, I'd rather have a crap winter with few opportunities than a winter like this one with a dozen near-misses...

But man, having to write off an El Niño already is kinda depressing...maybe we should just shut it down till 2019-20, lol

[Fozz]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

Bottom line is neutrals following Nina are typically crap. If we have anything other then a Nino (and that's not looking super likely) better just assume it's gonna suck. 

Why do you think that is? Could the atmosphere still be in some kind of semi-Niña mode that finds ways to screw us up?

[Fozz]

1 hour ago, Cobalt said:

From what I've seen/heard, 1997 was a NE winter (started late?), 2002 was just a torch for the entire eastern US, 2013 was back luck, Miller B's & a New England winter. Oh the ways we can fail

Even worse about 2001-02 is that almost everyone in all directions did better than us, from the Eastern shore to the Deep South who had a few nice storms, never mind anyone north and west. BWI’s total for the whole season was 2.3”, and it came from one small storm. And of course the warmth from late January onwards just wouldn’t stop.

I still consider it the lousiest winter ever, especially since I was an impressionable kid who was just getting interested in weather.

[psuhoffman]

3 minutes ago, Fozz said:

Why do you think that is? Could the atmosphere still be in some kind of semi-Niña mode that finds ways to screw us up?

It could be a lag. It could just be that we typically only get 2-3 "good" winters a decade and the rest are pretty sucky. 80% of those good years are ninos. So that means 90% of Nina AND neutrals are bad. I think neutrals are slightly less hostile and we have had more blockbuster neutrals than ninas but overall the odds favor low snow in any year other then a Nino. That's a gross generalization though.  And I'm using the general consensus of what most on here consider suck. It's obvious our typical winters here "suck" in most people's opinion so I'm just rolling with it.  I'm not saying it won't snow but if we don't have a Nino the odds say it's not going to be a big year.  Odds favor below mean.

2014 was a killer neutral but it followed a neutral. 1990 was good in northern VA following a Nina but I think it was a bit of a fluke. It sucked up here and most places.  Kind of a reverse of this year. 

[Fozz]

3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

It could be a lag. It could just be that we typically only get 2-3 "good" winters a decade and the rest are pretty sucky. 80% of those good years are ninos. So that means 90% of Nina AND neutrals are bad. I think neutrals are slightly less hostile and we have had more blockbuster neutrals than ninas but overall the odds favor low snow in any year other then a Nino. That's a gross generalization though.  And I'm using the general consensus of what most on here consider suck. It's obvious our typical winters here "suck" in most people's opinion so I'm just rolling with it.  I'm not saying it won't snow but if we don't have a Nino the odds say it's not going to be a big year.  Odds favor below mean.

2014 was a killer neutral but it followed a neutral. 1990 was good in northern VA following a Nina but I think it was a bit of a fluke. It sucked up here and most places.  Kind of a reverse of this year. 

On the other side it also seems like a neutral winter that follows a Niño has a better chance than normal. 03-04 wasn’t too bad. 78-79 was really good. 93-94 was good for the northern tier (I think 93 was a Niño but I could be wrong).

[Cobalt]

15 hours ago, Fozz said:

Even worse about 2001-02 is that almost everyone in all directions did better than us, from the Eastern shore to the Deep South who had a few nice storms, never mind anyone north and west. BWI’s total for the whole season was 2.3”, and it came from one small storm. And of course the warmth from late January onwards just wouldn’t stop.

I still consider it the lousiest winter ever, especially since I was an impressionable kid who was just getting interested in weather.

Heh, 72-73 was similar. A legitimate HECS for the deep south (with some areas reading what would be a top 2 storm for DCA

I'd say 2011-12 was the worst for the Eastern US as a whole because the only storms for us other than the October storm & some SW VA storms (where some actually got a 5" storm), but that was it. 

[mattie g]

2 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

Bottom line is neutrals following Nina are typically crap. If we have anything other then a Nino (and that's not looking super likely) better just assume it's gonna suck. 

Good. At least everyone else could wallow in the IMBY misery in my parts this year.

[Cobalt]

Bottom line is neutrals following Nina are typically crap. If we have anything other then a Nino (and that's not looking super likely) better just assume it's gonna suck. 

I wonder what the difference is between cold and warm neutral winters following Ninas.


.

[psuhoffman]

38 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

I wonder what the difference is between cold and warm neutral winters following Ninas.


.

I've read speculation it's lag effect.  So if the warm anomaly isn't strong enough to break the default inherent pattern it won't help.  Differentiating warm and cool neutrals leaves us with too few samples to really make any difinitive conclusions  

 It could also just be bad luck and too small a sample size.  In an enso neutral the tropical Pacific forcing isn't the dominant factor and leaves us to the mercy of the crap shoot of other lesser influencing factors.  Unfortunately most random combinations end up a fail for us. So we can roll the dice in a neutral but it's not going to come up a winner that often. 

Reliable records don't really cover enough time to get a large enough sample when we start breaking years into smaller groups. Some things are so consistent and highly correlated like ninas that it's easy to see. But things like neutrals after a Nina is such a small sample that bad luck a few times can skew it. How bad that is for us is hard to say for sure. I'm kind of being a downer in jest. But there is definitely nothing to indicate a neutral after a Nina is a good thing. Root for a weak to moderate Nino. Truth is odds favor a below mean snowfall year in every other enso state.  Nina being the worst. 

The Nino thing is simple. A weak to moderate Nino will enhance the stj enough to throw juices up southern storms at us without overwhelming and torching the CONUS.   Do that enough times and eventually cold will time up and we get snow. Add in a west based Nino which places the tropical forcing in a location that is favorable for a trough in the east and it's money. Those are our best bets for big blockbuster winters.  Other then that every once in a blue moon we hit the luck lottery in a year like 1996 or 2014 when some other factors like the nao/AO or pdo line up just right. When they come along appreciate them and hug them tight because it can be a long frustrating journey until the next one comes along. 

[Cobalt]

40 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I've read speculation it's lag effect.  So if the warm anomaly isn't strong enough to break the default inherent pattern it won't help.  Differentiating warm and cool neutrals leaves us with too few samples to really make any difinitive conclusions  

 It could also just be bad luck and too small a sample size.  In an enso neutral the tropical Pacific forcing isn't the dominant factor and leaves us to the mercy of the crap shoot of other lesser influencing factors.  Unfortunately most random combinations end up a fail for us. So we can roll the dice in a neutral but it's not going to come up a winner that often. 

Reliable records don't really cover enough time to get a large enough sample when we start breaking years into smaller groups. Some things are so consistent and highly correlated like ninas that it's easy to see. But things like neutrals after a Nina is such a small sample that bad luck a few times can skew it. How bad that is for us is hard to say for sure. I'm kind of being a downer in jest. But there is definitely nothing to indicate a neutral after a Nina is a good thing. Root for a weak to moderate Nino. Truth is odds favor a below mean snowfall year in every other enso state.  Nina being the worst. 

The Nino thing is simple. A weak to moderate Nino will enhance the stj enough to throw juices up southern storms at us without overwhelming and torching the CONUS.   Do that enough times and eventually cold will time up and we get snow. Add in a west based Nino which places the tropical forcing in a location that is favorable for a trough in the east and it's money. Those are our best bets for big blockbuster winters.  Other then that every once in a blue moon we hit the luck lottery in a year like 1996 or 2014 when some other factors like the nao/AO or pdo line up just right. When they come along appreciate them and hug them tight because it can be a long frustrating journey until the next one comes along. 

Yeah, I see what you mean. We've had quite the boom/bust thing going for us. It's pretty crazy when considering that NYC/Islip seem to do good in most ENSO phases. For us (especially for DC south), it just takes a lot to get a big year.

We have had a lot of good hits since 09/10. I looked into a bit, and 9 out of 11 of IAD's largest snowstorms since the turn of the Century have occurred since December 2009, with 6 of those happening in a 3 year span. 

Also, IAD's 9 year average is 27.2". We've had an active decade, but we've just been left out of a lot of storms/winters (such as Boston's snowiest decade on record from 04/05-14/15). 

Let's hope that our next Nino year is sooner, rather than later..

[Maestrobjwa]

16 hours ago, Fozz said:

Even worse about 2001-02 is that almost everyone in all directions did better than us, from the Eastern shore to the Deep South who had a few nice storms, never mind anyone north and west. BWI’s total for the whole season was 2.3”, and it came from one small storm. And of course the warmth from late January onwards just wouldn’t stop.

I still consider it the lousiest winter ever, especially since I was an impressionable kid who was just getting interested in weather.

Mercy....that sounds just like this winter!! I don't think I can take two winters in a row like this one...snow in all directions but here just hurts...We have another winter like this one next year and I may be scarred into never trusting a medium range forecast again, lol

[psuhoffman]

22 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Mercy....that sounds just like this winter!! I don't think I can take two winters in a row like this one...snow in all directions but here just hurts...We have another winter like this one next year and I may be scarred into never trusting a medium range forecast again, lol

Don't worry there will be 2 dozen people posting 3 times a day to remind us how awful it is just in case you didn't know. 

[Cobalt]

16 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Mercy....that sounds just like this winter!! I don't think I can take two winters in a row like this one...snow in all directions but here just hurts...We have another winter like this one next year and I may be scarred into never trusting a medium range forecast again, lol

The 15.2" total for BWI is above 16 winters in the last 30. Seems to be par for the course IMO. 

[Fozz]

28 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Mercy....that sounds just like this winter!! I don't think I can take two winters in a row like this one...snow in all directions but here just hurts...We have another winter like this one next year and I may be scarred into never trusting a medium range forecast again, lol

In the end this past winter wasn’t too bad around Baltimore, especially after March. It wasn’t great, but DC and NW Virginia had it a lot worse.

[Cobalt]

7.8" for DCA is above 11 winters out of the last 30

11.9" for IAD is higher than 7 winters out of the last 30. No bueno

 

Not trying to say our winter was worse just because. It wasn't terrible, but it wasn't average. A little bit below average from average Weak Ninas, but only by a little.

[Fozz]

16 hours ago, Cobalt said:

Heh, 72-73 was similar. A legitimate HECS for the deep south (with some areas reading what would be a top 2 storm for DCA

I'd say 2011-12 was the worst for the Eastern US as a whole because the only storms for us other than the October storm & some SW VA storms (where some actually got a 5" storm), but that was it. 

Imagine being a 1970s snow weenie in Atlanta and wondering why the weather hates you so much.

[Maestrobjwa]

5 hours ago, Cobalt said:

The 15.2" total for BWI is above 16 winters in the last 30. Seems to be par for the course IMO. 

And it's so strange that that ended up being the total...because it did not feel like it! But the tiny events added up, so I guess it wasn't all bad, but...still waiting for warning criteria to verify again (per BWI, we were technically .2 inches shy, lol). A moderate 5-7 inche hit would be nice to squeeze out of next winter...and hopefully the one after we can be back in business! 

[Maestrobjwa]

5 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

Don't worry there will be 2 dozen people posting 3 times a day to remind us how awful it is just in case you didn't know. 

No, no...I'm not one to bash tracking med/long range...and I can imagine one bad year in the guidance department doesn't invalidate tracking altogether...I just won't be so trusting even in "good" or "classic" looks in that ramge (unless it's El Niño, lol) Some like tracking just for the heck of it, and that's fine!

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

Real pattern change in 4-5 days to +AO. This El Nino is already looking different. 

[Cobalt]

23 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

And it's so strange that that ended up being the total...because it did not feel like it! But the tiny events added up, so I guess it wasn't all bad, but...still waiting for warning criteria to verify again (per BWI, we were technically .2 inches shy, lol). A moderate 5-7 inche hit would be nice to squeeze out of next winter...and hopefully the one after we can be back in business! 

This is the individual event totals from BWI:

12/9/17: 2.8"

12/13/17: 0.3"

12/15/17: 0.7"

12/30/17: 0.5"

 

1/4/18: 0.9"

1/17/18: 1.3"

 

2/17/18: 2.2"

 

3/6-7/18: 1.8"

3/20-21/18: 4.7"

 

So, that's 9 events that comes out to a total of 1.7" of snow per event, with an 11 day gap between each event. I can see why it didn't feel like it. This was a very slow winter with no big events. While I believe BWI's total should've been a bit higher (With a 6-8" jackpot area just to the South. Wish we had Mitchnick to confirm the total), we haven't had a true region-wide WSW event.

I just hope we get a memorable winter before I go off to college (Winter 21-22) 

[Cobalt]

Oof

 

[Cobalt]

6 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

Oof

 

Double oof

 

[motsco]

3 weeks of winter winds and warm sun - then we will go straight to 80+ with some windy 70 dog dry windy days -  2018 will be the ultimate winter to summer year.   spring cancel.  

[RDM]

16 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

 

I died looking at your avatar

All that's needed after this season is a snowflake instead of a football.  As in, we barely saw any (ok - an exaggeration for some, but...).  Guess there's always next season just like with the football...