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April Mid/Long Range & Disco


NorthArlington101

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Anyone that wants cold weather this time of year can move. No one is forcing you to live here. The reality is it should be quickly approaching 70 degrees here so that's a fair expectation, and wishing for anything less is weird and belongs in another subforum (New England). Getting sick of the applause for this awful last 6 weeks we've had. Been cheated out of 60s.

We're paying for the warm Fall, and I'm loving every minute of it


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44 minutes ago, Subtropics said:

Anyone that wants cold weather this time of year can move. No one is forcing you to live here. The reality is it should be quickly approaching 70 degrees here so that's a fair expectation, and wishing for anything less is weird and belongs in another subforum (New England). Getting sick of the applause for this awful last 6 weeks we've had. Been cheated out of 60s.

On the flip side, I think anyone who isn't satisfied with the weather he's getting is the one who should move. DCA's average high doesn't reach 70 until April 25... that is weeks away from now. If you want warmer weather than you're getting, then that's fine since you're entitled to your own preference, but don't tell others how to think or where to live, especially if they aren't the ones who've been complaining.

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3 hours ago, Subtropics said:

Anyone that wants cold weather this time of year can move. No one is forcing you to live here. The reality is it should be quickly approaching 70 degrees here so that's a fair expectation, and wishing for anything less is weird and belongs in another subforum (New England). Getting sick of the applause for this awful last 6 weeks we've had. Been cheated out of 60s.

Comfortable weather is for california. 70 degrees and sunny means competing for outdoor space with every weekend warrior in the DMV and/or dying of boredom on my way to work. Doesn't have to be cold, but between May and October there damn well better be a jacked up four corners high so at least some people stay inside in the AC.  

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8 hours ago, Subtropics said:

Anyone that wants cold weather this time of year can move. No one is forcing you to live here. The reality is it should be quickly approaching 70 degrees here so that's a fair expectation, and wishing for anything less is weird and belongs in another subforum (New England). Getting sick of the applause for this awful last 6 weeks we've had. Been cheated out of 60s.

Thought you moved already? Georgia, Florida, where ever? If moneys stopping you maybe we can start a gofundme for you? If it's the lack of a job maybe you could look into the tourist industry? Sure you would be a hit because you could yammer on day and night about the virtues of the weather there over other places, say like the mid-Atlantic? And the only reality here is the fact that your incessant whining no matter the season is/has been an absolute bore. 

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12 hours ago, Subtropics said:

Anyone that wants cold weather this time of year can move. No one is forcing you to live here. The reality is it should be quickly approaching 70 degrees here so that's a fair expectation, and wishing for anything less is weird and belongs in another subforum (New England). Getting sick of the applause for this awful last 6 weeks we've had. Been cheated out of 60s.

If it makes you feel any better; apparently the weather has become so boring in the Southeast that the forum is practically a morgue.  Too warm for snow and too cold for severe. 

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16 hours ago, Subtropics said:

Anyone that wants cold weather this time of year can move. No one is forcing you to live here. The reality is it should be quickly approaching 70 degrees here so that's a fair expectation, and wishing for anything less is weird and belongs in another subforum (New England). Getting sick of the applause for this awful last 6 weeks we've had. Been cheated out of 60s.

This is a perfect post, given how many people tell folks to move who prefer warmer/seasonal weather in March. Well done.

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anyone who likes cold weather shouldn't be allowed to wear a jacket.  wear a t-shirt and then let me know how much you love cold weather.  snowstorms are fun.  cold is great...with 3 layers.  give me spring...and give me 6 months of it, if possible.

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2 minutes ago, 87storms said:

anyone who likes cold weather shouldn't be allowed to wear a jacket.  wear a t-shirt and then let me know how much you love cold weather.  snowstorms are fun.  cold is great...with 3 layers.  give me spring...and give me 6 months of it, if possible.

I see what you mean. I'd prefer seasons to act like seasons too. I just don't want 80 degree+ heat. Save that for mid to late May though. The only thing is that DCA averages a high of 65 degrees on 4/11/18. A 15 degree swing either way sucks at this time of year. 15 degrees below average and it's cold/chilly (except in the Sun) . 15 degrees above average and it's pretty warm, not toasty.

Yeah, these transitional times of the year do suck though, especially when it's cold in the morning and then warm in the afternoon. 

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In January sunny and 55 F degrees is a beautiful day.  In April, the only way to keep the temp at 55 F on a sunny day is to continually funnel in air from the north.  So sunny 55 F with 20 to 30 mph winds loaded with pollen; not so nice.  Of course this has been mixed with cloudy February like weather.  However, for those that can, good to embrace the cold if that is all you are going to get anyway.

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2 hours ago, Cobalt said:

I see what you mean. I'd prefer seasons to act like seasons too. I just don't want 80 degree+ heat. Save that for mid to late May though. The only thing is that DCA averages a high of 65 degrees on 4/11/18. A 15 degree swing either way sucks at this time of year. 15 degrees below average and it's cold/chilly (except in the Sun) . 15 degrees above average and it's pretty warm, not toasty.

Yeah, these transitional times of the year do suck though, especially when it's cold in the morning and then warm in the afternoon. 

today is an unusual early spring feel day.  usually when the sun is out is when we can warm up above average.  i think the average temps are mostly due to us having a fair amount of cloudy days and of course the anomalies that bring the average down.  i actually am not a big fan of days like this.  i don't know what to wear.  sunny and upper 50s is weird to me.  i'd rather it be mostly cloudy and upper 70s...which might actually be my favorite type of weather.  same comfortable temps in the sun or shade.  problem with that is that water temps don't get to warm up enough, which is one of the mains reasons why i love summer.

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3 hours ago, 87storms said:

anyone who likes cold weather shouldn't be allowed to wear a jacket.  wear a t-shirt and then let me know how much you love cold weather.  snowstorms are fun.  cold is great...with 3 layers.  give me spring...and give me 6 months of it, if possible.

I don’t love or hate days like today. 50 and partly sunny definitely isn’t T-shirt weather, but a sweatshirt will do. April is the time of year when I don’t wish to wear a heavy jacket or blast the AC, so this is good enough for me. 

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dry warm and windy through sat - damp and warmish sunday.  mon tues will feel cold.  maybe on wed get a brief warm up. after that cloudy cool/cold n rain. maybe may will bring some warm consistency or we will be chasing a may ice storm.  

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11 hours ago, 87storms said:

anyone who likes cold weather shouldn't be allowed to wear a jacket.  wear a t-shirt and then let me know how much you love cold weather.  snowstorms are fun.  cold is great...with 3 layers.  give me spring...and give me 6 months of it, if possible.

I wear t-shirts all the time in chilly weather. Folks give me strange looks, but I love cold weather. Too bad its gonna get very warm this weekend, with mid 60s dewpoints. I'll broil.

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Overnight GFS was pretty aggressive with showing a potential deluge from a squall line running through the region Sun night/Mon morning. Euro is in good agreement with the GFS whereas the CMC just doesn't hit on all cylinders with the potential.

Below we have the surface setup with a secondary low that has formed to our south and will progress through our region. The setup leading into this has seen a strong, humid southerly flow through our region at all levels. We are seeing good lift of this warm air from both the cold front driving in from our west and the low progressing through our region. 

GFSsurface.gif.4efa631b0beb971fa2b8ed358d5a492f.gif

 

Below we have a sharp contrast between the air masses (roughly 15 degrees or so) over a short distance which is indicative of good lift induced by the cold front.

GFSsurfacetemps.gif.c700b4217967abc3f56b05ea724be16f.gif

 

One other factor playing into this is that we are also seeing good jet placement where the right front entrance of the jet streak is rotating through our region providing even more lift besides the frontal and low induced lift. A good moisture supply with plenty of lift and what you get is rain and a good amount of it.

GFSjet.gif.2c0c6470b98f05984fb92938476ab1e0.gif

 

Below we have the GFS total rainfall most of which is falling in a short amount of time as the squall line pushes through.

Some points of interest on the map.

A ) Showme has already left the campground from his very enjoyable rain free weekend getaway so at this point he doesn't care if it rains or not.

B ) Showme's dogs have their priorities in order and could care less if it rains or not as long as they get fed.

C ) ViceRegent is busy multitasking as he is warning us how this is a sign of the coming DEATH, DOOM, DESTRUCTION from Global Warming as he is also talking to his contractor about the 100 ft stilts he will have his house placed on to keep it above the coming sea level rises.

D ) PSU is worried that he will end up between the bands of heavier precip. One to his north and one to his south.

E ) Interstate is thinking 'This weather sucks, maybe I should move'.

F ) DC crowd is thinking 'Why couldn't we have seen this amount of precip when it was cold?'

G ) Jeb is Jebwalking/dancing in the deluge.

H ) Drought guy (Stormy?) is trying to decide if he should lay low or whether he should start harping on the coming DEATH, DOOM, DESTRUCTION from the coming flooding rains.

 

GFStotprecip.gif.a5e5e2f09868dad1ce02872e9011793b.gif

 

Below we have the CMC total rainfall amounts that come no where near the GFS amounts. The CMC setup is nowhere near as favorable as it doesn't see a secondary low develop, jet setup is far less favorable and most of the lift we are seeing is coming from the push of colder air.

Some points of interest on the map.

A ) Showme has already left the campground from his very enjoyable rain free weekend getaway so at this point he still doesn't care if it rains or not.

B ) Showme's dogs still have their priorities in order and could care less if it rains or not as long as they get fed.

C ) ViceRegent is still busy multitasking as he is warning us how this is a sign of the coming DEATH, DOOM, DESTRUCTION from Global Warming as he is also talking to his contractor about the 100 ft stilts he will have his house placed on to keep it above the coming sea level rises.

D ) PSU is worried that he will get fringed from the north.

E ) Interstate is still thinking 'This weather sucks, maybe I should move'.

F ) DC crowd is shifting gears from reminding us about the DC snow-hole to now it being the the DC rain-hole.

G ) Jeb is Jebwalking/dancing in the showers.

H ) Drought guy (Stormy?) is busily getting his DEATH, DOOM, DESTRUCTION FROM DROUGHT thread finalized for posting.

CMCtotprecip.gif.032181a0f4ebef3fbc9073aa808ee57d.gif

 

 

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28 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Overnight GFS was pretty aggressive with showing a potential deluge from a squall line running through the region Sun night/Mon morning. Euro is in good agreement with the GFS whereas the CMC just doesn't hit on all cylinders with the potential.

...

But EastCoast NPZ is debbing, so you must not know what you're talking about. :deadhorse:

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1 hour ago, mattie g said:

But EastCoast NPZ is debbing, so you must not know what you're talking about. :deadhorse:

I wasn't debbing this event, although I am now-officially, I was actually referring to the past 10 days or so since that uber-wet precip map was posted prior to that upcoming weekend "snow storm" of which I have received 0 precip.

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