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April Mid/Long Range & Disco


NorthArlington101

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6 minutes ago, Jandurin said:

if anything... it makes those fools who said we were tracking spring either look like idiots or geniuses

technically right and hilariously wrong

Yeah. Tracking spring in spring. What idiots. Note to self - make sure next time it is crazy warm for a spell in December to make fun of people for wanting to track winter in winter.

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41 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Couple of days ago I thought there was a possibility and that the models were hinting at it. Not so much now. Just not getting enough separation between it and the lead low running through the lakes Friday. Speaking of the day Friday system in the lakes that may end up being a sneaky little surprise for those up around the Mason Dixon, possibly even closer into the cities. If the precip gets in early enough with some decent rates I would not be surprised to see some minor accumulations (mulch covering-inch) especially in the favored locals. 

It had a shot when the wave was slower and thus had more room to amplify plus it was pulling in what is now the next systems upper level support. As it sped up its become simply a baroclinic open wave. But that's fine those can be pretty awesome especially late in the season when the boundary will be juiced and loaded. Look what the last boundary wave did with barely any significant system to our north. These can be nice thump events and there is no transfer and dryslot issues. Just need a flush hit. 

The next one has amplification potential but that's a bridge too far to worry about yet. 

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13 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

EURO is a good hit.

Got room to come north too.

Good because it's gonna. 

Assuming this remains a west to east boundary wave and doesn't trend weaker wherever it is depicted 48 hours out it will adjust north some. That's like a 80% frequency thing. 

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4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Good because it's gonna. 

Assuming this remains a west to east boundary wave and doesn't trend weaker wherever it is depicted 48 hours out it will adjust north some. That's like a 80% frequency thing. 

I been telling y'all not to worry about suppression. You watch, before this is over you will be concerned with being on the southern edge, while the rest of us are looking at rain or snow tv.

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1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

temps are upper 20s... guess its possible

850s are fairly chilly too... -7

Thats the best news with this earlier onset.  Now I know that it's still April and it will struggle relatively speaking.  Couldn't ask for much better.  Where is everyone?!  Good 12z suite all around for Saturday.

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10 minutes ago, Philadelphia Snow said:

You probually are happy your fringed so far considering how the last event trended north last minute. Imo going by seasonal trend your in a good spot.

Yea it's perfect where it is. I was kidding. If the guidance looks like the gfs/euro now come Thursday/Friday I will be excited. 

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