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April Mid/Long Range & Disco


NorthArlington101

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19 minutes ago, 87storms said:

saturday looked a bit progressive on the 6z gfs and next week looks a bit north'ish.  would be cool if one of those trends in our favor.  saturday might be easier here imo.  next week kinda has that miller B'ish look where we need the coastal to form in the right spot.  better upside, though.

Miller B is a bad word around here good sir (especially this year)...wash your mouth out with snow soap!!! Lol

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5 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Miller B is a bad word around here good sir (especially this year)...wash your mouth out with snow soap!!! Lol

saturday has a hot little wave sliding to the south.  looks like an overrunning event.  those are easier.  next week, at least on the 6z, looked like it could trend north (though that was a quick glance).  i think we need to be all in for saturday and roll the dice with that one.  i agree with stormtracker that every day makes it more difficult here in april.

 

 

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i have absolutely no expectations as far as stickage.  if it snows in april, that's a win.  wanting stickage is something worth complaining about in dec/jan/feb, not april lol.  i fully expect daytime snow and puddles, and that's fine.  that's when you go for a hike along a trail/woods to get the better effect.

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1 minute ago, gstern1994 said:

My daughter is playing a softball doubleheader in Ashburn, VA on Saturday 8:30am-1:30ish. Could we be snowed out?

Probably too early to pin down timing (and track, for that matter!)...could change a bit as the week goes on. I'd say check back in here late Thursday or Friday and it may be clearer

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6 minutes ago, Wonderdog said:

We're getting closer to the event and the models are not backing down, yet. All we need now is for the storm to turn up the coast on Sat. night. This would be a crazy ending to this POS winter. lol

That first storm isnt a turn up the coast kind of thing. It's not phasing or amplifying really. It has very little buckling at h5. It's an open wave. The precip is mostly baroclinicity induced with perhaps some enhancement from a jet streak or ribbon. The system 2 days later is something that could bomb like that. 

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12 minutes ago, Wonderdog said:

We're getting closer to the event and the models are not backing down, yet. All we need now is for the storm to turn up the coast on Sat. night. This would be a crazy ending to this POS winter. lol

It looks pretty good now actually.  The second more amped storm two days later would probably not end well for many of us as it looks now.  I saw the CMC but I think our money should be on Saturday for what could be a snow tv binge watch. 

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1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

That first storm isnt a turn up the coast kind of thing. It's not phasing or amplifying really. It has very little buckling at h5. It's an open wave. The precip is mostly baroclinicity induced with perhaps some enhancement from a jet streak or ribbon. The system 2 days later is something that could bomb like that. 

Couple of days ago I thought there was a possibility and that the models were hinting at it. Not so much now. Just not getting enough separation between it and the lead low running through the lakes Friday. Speaking of the day Friday system in the lakes that may end up being a sneaky little surprise for those up around the Mason Dixon, possibly even closer into the cities. If the precip gets in early enough with some decent rates I would not be surprised to see some minor accumulations (mulch covering-inch) especially in the favored locals. 

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2 minutes ago, H2O said:

psssssst.  Hey, guys, its no longer winter.  I legit feel like this snow(if it actually does happen) shouldn't even count in the 17-18 Winter totals.  

18-19?  I'm good with that.  I actually don't think it will be all that measurable but who knows. 

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1 minute ago, Ji said:

if anything...this late tracking means that next winter is just around the corner more so than other winters

if anything... it makes those fools who said we were tracking spring either look like idiots or geniuses

technically right and hilariously wrong

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