NorthArlington101 Posted April 1, 2018 Share Posted April 1, 2018 Tracking the last unicorn... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted April 1, 2018 Share Posted April 1, 2018 Looks like the GFS is on its own for this magical winged horse. Didn’t see anything else that looked as promising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDM Posted April 1, 2018 Share Posted April 1, 2018 Posted 29 minutes ago 1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said: Thats typical with the GEFS members for whatever reason. The herd mentality. A couple runs from now when the op has a "new" solution for next weekend, there likely wont be any members with snow down south. No doubt the herd mentality is a factor in the solutions ( tropical season was proof of that) but herd or no herd the model " thinks " it could snow down there and actually it's been showing that possibility for several runs ..it's just this latest ensemble run that really added more hits. I personally believe the big hits down there are extreme long shots but reading thru my Ludlum books ..the south has gotten accumulating snow in April several times in the last couple hundred years and it will happen again. With the reference in bold to several hundred years, wonder how many of those individual events correlate to some of the occasional global spikes induced by volcanic activity. For instance 1816, the oft quoted "year without a summer" caused by the eruption of Tambora in 1815. No intent at all to open the global climate can of worms (the least of my intentions). Just curious about the correlations that maybe help explain some of the rarer events, like the concept of sn in the south in April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted April 1, 2018 Share Posted April 1, 2018 if that unicorn is a thunderstorm, then i'm in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted April 1, 2018 Share Posted April 1, 2018 24 hour snow-depth change for next weekend on the 12Z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted April 1, 2018 Share Posted April 1, 2018 CMC is even better than the GFS. stormtrack is further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted April 1, 2018 Share Posted April 1, 2018 2 minutes ago, Amped said: CMC is even better than the GFS. stormtrack is further south. Only have it to 84. You have it out further I take it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted April 1, 2018 Share Posted April 1, 2018 Just now, BristowWx said: Only have it to 84. You have it out further I take it SLP maps for usa out to 216 on TT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted April 1, 2018 Share Posted April 1, 2018 Man, GFS is close to something real good for us. First it was too far south with the heaviest snow, and now it's much stronger and pushes further north and flips us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted April 1, 2018 Share Posted April 1, 2018 CMC looks pretty darn good from what I can see...Amped was on point. 540 stays south. Interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted April 1, 2018 Share Posted April 1, 2018 Not sure of the temps, but the CMC has what looks to be a more favorable track. Interesting how it had nothing last night and now has a decent storm like the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted April 1, 2018 Share Posted April 1, 2018 4 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Not sure of the temps, but the CMC has what looks to be a more favorable track. Interesting how it had nothing last night and now has a decent storm like the GFS 850s look good but anymore amped and north and well you know. It’s keeping my interest for now. GFS was a big jump north...or maybe just more amped up. Euro should be of interest. I like the 1030 on the CMC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted April 1, 2018 Share Posted April 1, 2018 Don't know why the GFS amplifies so much only to take a closed H5 low due east off Ocean City. Maybe it's the time of year, or maybe the GFS is crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted April 1, 2018 Share Posted April 1, 2018 CMC is a very nice thump for almost everyone. Very nice indeed. Wish we could freez this run and fast forward the calendar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted April 1, 2018 Share Posted April 1, 2018 7 minutes ago, Amped said: Don't know why the GFS amplifies so much only to take a closed H5 low due east off Ocean City. Maybe it's the time of year, or maybe the GFS is crazy. The other way around seems more likely. The high is so strong, much less amplification takes place than what the GFS is showing. Smashing it's way into a massive 1026 mb high, doesn't make a ton of sense to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted April 1, 2018 Share Posted April 1, 2018 2 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: The other way around seems more likely. The high is so strong, much less amplification takes place than what the GFS is showing. Smashing it's way into a massive 1026 mb high, doesn't make a ton of sense to me. We need the Goldilocks scenario. 1026 is not that amazing if the low is sub 995. Above 1000 and it may scoot south. Enthused for sure. Long time however for things to go wrong. This really is the Hail Mary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted April 1, 2018 Share Posted April 1, 2018 6 minutes ago, BristowWx said: We need the Goldilocks scenario. 1026 is not that amazing if the low is sub 995. Above 1000 and it may scoot south. Enthused for sure. Long time however for things to go wrong. This really is the Hail Mary. Yeah, I think I may be more interested in this than I should be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted April 1, 2018 Share Posted April 1, 2018 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Yeah, I think I may be more interested in this than I should be. Tough not to be. As depicted on the CMC I would think it’s a historic April event. That’s why it’s hard to take it seriously. Yet the ops are not wildly different at this point and the cold looks legit so that part of the equation might be solid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted April 1, 2018 Share Posted April 1, 2018 Surface looks good as well on CMC. I am getting way too excited for a CMC run op at day 7....doing a mental down shift right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted April 1, 2018 Share Posted April 1, 2018 Just for fun, the CMC clown map... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted April 1, 2018 Share Posted April 1, 2018 22 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: The other way around seems more likely. The high is so strong, much less amplification takes place than what the GFS is showing. Smashing it's way into a massive 1026 mb high, doesn't make a ton of sense to me. There is no northern stream to yank anything north. Just a rapidly modifying arctic airmass and rising heights offshore preventing the rapid coastal tranfer that a weak wave in a progressive flow would favor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted April 1, 2018 Share Posted April 1, 2018 I'm glad we spent so much time talking about the drought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted April 1, 2018 Share Posted April 1, 2018 For the sake of the sub-forum's collective sanity, the Euro better not be a big hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted April 1, 2018 Share Posted April 1, 2018 3 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: For the sake of the sub-forum's collective sanity, the Euro better not be a big hit. It won't be. I didn't give it the name Dr. No for nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted April 1, 2018 Share Posted April 1, 2018 10 minutes ago, stormtracker said: It won't be. I didn't give it the name Dr. No for nothing. Well the year, has it been Dr. Oh Yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted April 1, 2018 Share Posted April 1, 2018 37 minutes ago, Interstate said: Well the year, has it been Dr. Oh Yes I’m gonna go with “Euro says what storm” for 800 Alex..just for fun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted April 1, 2018 Share Posted April 1, 2018 52 minutes ago, stormtracker said: It won't be. I didn't give it the name Dr. No for nothing. 24 hours from the money panels but looks way better this run vs last night. Boundary is further south and pressing as the system is coming at us from the west. We will see but it looks close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted April 1, 2018 Share Posted April 1, 2018 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: 24 hours from the money panels but looks way better this run vs last night. Boundary is further south and pressing as the system is coming at us from the west. We will see but it looks close. Yeah, from what I can see on TT, it does look promising. WE'll see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted April 1, 2018 Share Posted April 1, 2018 Just now, psuhoffman said: 24 hours from the money panels but looks way better this run vs last night. Boundary is further south and pressing as the system is coming at us from the west. We will see but it looks close. Oh boy. Bring it home psu...bring it home. Your analysis is only second to yoda. He is the Jedi master of pbp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted April 1, 2018 Share Posted April 1, 2018 It doesn't look like the massive hit the cmc was but it's definitely a major improvement over last run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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