Ginx snewx Posted March 31, 2018 Author Share Posted March 31, 2018 54 minutes ago, CT Rain said: GFS went south quite a bit Hi res RGEM went nutZ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 31, 2018 Share Posted March 31, 2018 11 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Hi res RGEM went nutZ Sure did. Definitely an outlier though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 31, 2018 Share Posted March 31, 2018 11 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Hi res RGEM went nutZ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted March 31, 2018 Share Posted March 31, 2018 Looks like the typical end of season CT-RI-SEMA special to me. Congrats on 2-4”+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted March 31, 2018 Share Posted March 31, 2018 Yeah... the gfs is ugly. 18z NAM and gfs we’re both worse. See what 00z brings. Not buying the amped mesos at this stage with the disaster performance in the last storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 31, 2018 Share Posted March 31, 2018 11 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Yeah... the gfs is ugly. 18z NAM and gfs we’re both worse. See what 00z brings. Not buying the amped mesos at this stage with the disaster performance in the last storm It’s an interesting question actually how much to factor in the performance on the last event. Mesos are still out of their range so maybe tomorrow 12z on will have more reliable guidance? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted April 1, 2018 Share Posted April 1, 2018 3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Right...which is 3" to the pike. So, you are thinking greater than 3" to the pike. Hope you are right, but I will sell hard. NAM would likely support more than 3 to the pike...that's what he is saying. Not that it will happen. You're gonna want to juice the amounts on the northern edge on a NAM type solution or even euro. If this comes in a little flatter then yeah, it's prob under 3". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted April 1, 2018 Share Posted April 1, 2018 8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: NAM would likely support more than 3 to the pike...that's what he is saying. Not that it will happen. You're gonna want to juice the amounts on the northern edge on a NAM type solution or even euro. If this comes in a little flatter then yeah, it's prob under 3". I'll sell on 3" up to Boston on the Euro. We'll see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted April 1, 2018 Share Posted April 1, 2018 21z SREFS are juicy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted April 1, 2018 Share Posted April 1, 2018 12 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: 21z SREFS are juicy U just beat me to posting this! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted April 1, 2018 Share Posted April 1, 2018 21 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: NAM would likely support more than 3 to the pike...that's what he is saying. Not that it will happen. You're gonna want to juice the amounts on the northern edge on a NAM type solution or even euro. If this comes in a little flatter then yeah, it's prob under 3". Will How much room to bump North Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted April 1, 2018 Share Posted April 1, 2018 We smoke cirrus here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted April 1, 2018 Share Posted April 1, 2018 8 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: We smoke cirrus here Meh, some slop on the grass that vaporizes as soon as it stops falling here isn't thrilling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted April 1, 2018 Share Posted April 1, 2018 00z NAM looks a hair less dynamic than 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted April 1, 2018 Share Posted April 1, 2018 56 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: We smoke the hydroponic here, anyone got cheeto's Wrong thread Dave Still room for a 30-50 Mile bump Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted April 1, 2018 Share Posted April 1, 2018 Gfs is a scraper at best. CMC is south of 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted April 1, 2018 Share Posted April 1, 2018 RGEM is meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted April 1, 2018 Share Posted April 1, 2018 1 hour ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Wrong thread Dave Still room for a 30-50 Mile bump Yea, good luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted April 1, 2018 Share Posted April 1, 2018 2 hours ago, HoarfrostHubb said: We smoke cirrus here Yeah, this will probably have a pretty sharp northern edge. Dry air below 800 mb is no bueno in April for any accumulating snow. It really is around the pike based on the NAM depiction that the RH gets deep enough to support some sustained heavier rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted April 1, 2018 Share Posted April 1, 2018 Hi res RGEM is weaker and south too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted April 1, 2018 Share Posted April 1, 2018 We Roy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted April 1, 2018 Share Posted April 1, 2018 Give it to 12z tomorrow. Im definitely not interested in trying to polish a turd this late in the season though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted April 1, 2018 Share Posted April 1, 2018 49 minutes ago, weathafella said: We Roy? Euro is south...like everything else. 1" just south of Boston. The unstoppable trend has stopped. Different system from 3/21, same result. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted April 1, 2018 Share Posted April 1, 2018 We'll see if 12z bumps back north. Otherwise it will mostly just be a CT/RI deal and prob only 1-3 there. Vortmax is less defined on the 00z suite which is the key to this thing...you want a nice consolidated vortmax. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted April 1, 2018 Share Posted April 1, 2018 Pretty much all guidance spitting out 2-3" down this way. At least it will be gone in less than a day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 1, 2018 Share Posted April 1, 2018 Guidance wasn’t the most favorable last night. Congrats BDR to James. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 1, 2018 Share Posted April 1, 2018 I’ll take 2-4” on the grass in Napril 2nd any year. Then some severe on Wednesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted April 1, 2018 Share Posted April 1, 2018 7 hours ago, OceanStWx said: Yeah, this will probably have a pretty sharp northern edge. Dry air below 800 mb is no bueno in April for any accumulating snow. It really is around the pike based on the NAM depiction that the RH gets deep enough to support some sustained heavier rates. Good luck to those folks s of pike Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted April 1, 2018 Share Posted April 1, 2018 And it won’t be much here either...I’d rather it just stay away at this point...joke! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted April 1, 2018 Share Posted April 1, 2018 8 hours ago, OceanStWx said: Yeah, this will probably have a pretty sharp northern edge. Dry air below 800 mb is no bueno in April for any accumulating snow. It really is around the pike based on the NAM depiction that the RH gets deep enough to support some sustained heavier rates. I'd agree with this statement if it were not for fact that this system is running up through a relative confluence in the east and is in the process of dampening as the short range models catch up with and correct for the erstwhile (probably) over conserved evolution of prior runs. It may not look like a confluence/structure ...but it's there. That deeper amplitude arriving into the midriff lat/lons just a day and half later is already imposing a negating wave-space on this thing as it's pallid mechanics to begin with are then forced through a negative feedback in the large scope. That is unfortunately ... a form of confluence. The result is weak q-vector forcing rippling over a diffused thickness medium (i.e., weakened baroclinicity blah blah) as you say, associated with April... Next thing you know, not only is it being absorbed into the background low RH/hygroscopic sponge as you say... the rad presentation would thus probably be shredded in nature. Could be a virga deal with flurries and sprinkles (yes liquid) more so than anything else. I'll tell yeah... I can't count how many times at this time of year, any kind of snow -related look ended up normalizing at near terms ... verifying as cirrus plumes with splashes of sun and some altostratus patches. It's just the mechanics for getting the job done are set higher up the scale - so to speak - necessary to offset said normalization factor. But, it is still a marginal sounding, and..it is not so late that say ... a significant if poorly (or not) modeled reason for decent fall rates were to take place, ...said shreds fill in a bit and you get your steady light snow event... on grass and car-tops (most likely). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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