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April 2nd SNE stats padder no foolin, obs and discussion


Ginx snewx

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17 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm pretty bad with late season events....def. weakness. Only hit on the March 13 blizzard and the March 7-8 paste bomb.

I think with April events, it's most of being in the sweet spot. You won't do much with vis above 1-2SM.  It's still early to see who gets the goods so I hold back a bit more until tomorrow like Will said. But, this looks like one of those events that will have a WSW-ENE ribbon of fun where that fronto sets up.

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1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

No surprise to see folks jumping on board.

snowy Monday to severe storms Wednesday to a season ending Tree toppler pastejob next weekend.

Then suddenly it’s summer mid month on

That event seems to be losing a little steam, but lots of time left.

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1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

No surprise to see folks jumping on board.

snowy Monday to severe storms Wednesday to a season ending Tree toppler pastejob next weekend.

Then suddenly it’s summer mid month on

I'm not jumping on board for a major event.

I still don't see one on the map.

Some snow, as anticipated.

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23 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

What makes you think it continues? 

What makes you think it doesn’t?   The wave has been more robust run to run pretty consistently.   The euro isn’t jumping but it’s doing what the rest of the suite has been doing.  I don’t think the last event has any relationship-entirely different system.

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I'd like to see one more little sharper tick. Buckle that shortwave just a bit more and I would be pretty bullish for solid advisory to perhaps even low end warning for a good chunk of CT/MA/RI...so we will see what it looks like by tomorrow. If it doesn't move another inch then I think more than about 3-4" would be very tough and it would prob be confined to a narrower stripe in CT/RI. 

Sharpening the S/w doesn't just bring the qpf further north, it also makes the dynamics stronger so your ceiling gets higher in the max zone. 

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29 minutes ago, weathafella said:

What makes you think it doesn’t?   The wave has been more robust run to run pretty consistently.   The euro isn’t jumping but it’s doing what the rest of the suite has been doing.  I don’t think the last event has any relationship-entirely different system.

All trends end at some point.

Period.

Previous trends have no relationship with future trends. Entirely different data.

Buyer beware.

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12 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I'd like to see one more little sharper tick. Buckle that shortwave just a bit more and I would be pretty bullish for solid advisory to perhaps even low end warning for a good chunk of CT/MA/RI...so we will see what it looks like by tomorrow. If it doesn't move another inch then I think more than about 3-4" would be very tough and it would prob be confined to a narrower stripe in CT/RI. 

Sharpening the S/w doesn't just bring the qpf further north, it also makes the dynamics stronger so your ceiling gets higher in the max zone. 

Agree.

I'm not saying it won't, or can't keep trending, but we have also seen these stop on a dime, too.

That is a pretty nasty vortex in Canada, so this has a northward limit.

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1 hour ago, Cold Miser said:

Examples?

“It's like 50 something degrees out. 
Good Lord.  Remember that "big snowstorm" you predicted a few weeks ago twice? We didn't get crap because it's too warm out.  Same thing here.  I wish I could scare the population and screw up on my job as much as weather people and have no repercussions.”

 

typical crap

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19 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

“It's like 50 something degrees out. 
Good Lord.  Remember that "big snowstorm" you predicted a few weeks ago twice? We didn't get crap because it's too warm out.  Same thing here.  I wish I could scare the population and screw up on my job as much as weather people and have no repercussions.”

 

typical crap

The wonderful comments on my Facebook page!

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