Easter April Fools Snow (Apr. 1-2) (Central MO/IL/IN/OH)--Plus Space Station Crash Landing talk

[Hoosier]

I think the busts can be explained like this.  The models did not do a great job depicting the enhanced band on the northern end.  There were some models suggesting it late in the game (a few runs of the HRRR/RAP and the 18z NAM for example) but even those were generally still a little too far south with placement.  Also, it was pretty much a 6-8 hour snowfall (at most) and not a drawn out snow which left less time for forecast adjustments.  That being said, I think there was still enough time to make an in game adjustment to the advisories as trends played out in real time. 

[Tim from Springfield (IL)]

ILX event synopsis here: https://www.weather.gov/ilx/01apr18-snow

The big winner was Greenview (NE Menard County) with 7.7".  7 inches in Mason County (Havana's total was upped to 7" plus a similar amount in nearby Easton).

Lincoln-area totals ranged from 4.7" to 5.8."

Also some unbreakable April low records, barring another bizarre event: At least four reports of below-zero lows in central Illinois.  Paxton was the "winner" at -2.  Also -1 at Macomb, Avon, and the ILX office in Lincoln.  Meanwhile, "only" 12 at Champaign, 14 at PIA, and 16 at SPI.

 

[Met1985]

Looks like we are going to get some snow here in Central Wisconsin.  They are calling for 7 to 11 inches with locally higher amounts.

[Chicago Storm]

Nice narrow axis of 5-8” totals where that main f-gen band set up across N. MO/C. IL/C. IN/C. OH.

Guidance overall did indeed do a terrible job. Not only with amounts, but with placement. Even the morning of the event as it was ongoing in MO, they still didn’t have a clue on how far north and strong that f-gen band would be.


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