April 2 Snow Event

[RevWarReenactor]

1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said:

You call yourself a weather hobbyist? Maybe pay attention to more than the point and click over your yard.

From Mount Holly AFD early this morning-

In the urban corridor, snow totals are a big question mark. With the northward trend in the 00Z model output (agreeing with the past several rounds of hi-res guidance), the Philly area looks to be right on the borderline between virtually no snow and perhaps an inch or two of accumulation on grassy surfaces.

And updated recently-

As alluded to in the previous discussion, any snow/sleet accumulations in the southern tier of the advisory area look minor at best. Trimmed Cecil/New Castle/Salem Counties with this update, and may trim portions of the Philadelphia metropolitan area eastward to southeast Burlington County in the next hour or two if trends continue.

 

Ok, but that is still a blown forecast.

 a nowcast update by looking out the window/temps and radar doesn't absolve them of yesterday at noon saying "Inch per hour, heavy rates, roads could be covered, morning commute will be impacted by winter weather"

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, Mdecoy said:

Ok, but that is still a blown forecast.

 a nowcast update by looking out the window/temps and radar doesn't absolve them of yesterday at noon saying "Inch per hour, heavy rates, roads could be covered, morning commute will be impacted by winter weather"

Mount Holly has a large and diverse area for which to provide a forecast. Clearly the emphasis of those headlines were for the elevated areas NW of Philly. Did you even look at a single model yesterday? Every one had your area marginal at best for frozen. 

There are great resources on this very forum- including knowledgeable mets who are willing to share. Elinwood made at least one great post yesterday with his snow map. He was 100% correct. Wet bulbing in the mid 30s wont get it done, even at night, without some insane rates. I constantly say this, but dynamical cooling doesn't work nearly as often as it is talked about. Evaporation is a much more efficient cooling mechanism than melting.

[Fozz]

9 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

We got 4.5 or so in the city...my benchmark was 5 so technically still no warning event IMBY since 2016! Yeah, we were about median snowfall...but it was a frustrating median, lol

I consider 4.5” a warning event, but just barely. The reason for that is it rounds to 5, and when LWX forecasts 3-6” of snow (in which 4.5” is in the middle), they issue a warning.

[Jandurin]

Every moment he wastes thinking is a moment he could've been complaining instead. He's got his priorities.

[Eskimo Joe]

Nada at gome in Reisterstown.  Picked up 0.17" liquid...temp was 41 when I woke up at 4:30.

[WVclimo]

Had a few hours of moderate to heavy rain that ended as some wet snow .  0.58” total.  Car tops and some mulched areas had a coating.

[CAPE]

22 minutes ago, Jandurin said:

Every moment he wastes thinking is a moment he could've been complaining instead. He's got his priorities.

Considering his location is N DE, he really should be crapping up the threads in the Philly subforum instead of here.

[EastCoast NPZ]

Not a flake.  Nothing but rain throughout.  The last gasp was a thin line of wind-blown rain that woke me up around 5 AM.  .33" total. 

Our spring snow events are just as terrible as the ones in winter.

[RevWarReenactor]

45 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Mount Holly has a large and diverse area for which to provide a forecast. Clearly the emphasis of those headlines were for the elevated areas NW of Philly. Did you even look at a single model yesterday? Every one had your area marginal at best for frozen. 

There are great resources on this very forum- including knowledgeable mets who are willing to share. Elinwood made at least one great post yesterday with his snow map. He was 100% correct. Wet bulbing in the mid 30s wont get it done, even at night, without some insane rates. I constantly say this, but dynamical cooling doesn't work nearly as often as it is talked about. Evaporation is a much more efficient cooling mechanism than melting.

I agree with this. I didn't think anything of this event by last night.

However the NWS did have my specific backyard in the 1-3 inch area.

I guess I don't get the rush to absolve them of blame. Are you an employee there? A blown forecast is a blown forecast. That's all. When I screw up at my job, I get called on it too.

[Ji]

Not even 0.1” if rain. Didn’t GFS have us all getting 0.75” of liquid?

I feel like the long range modeling is better than the short range. We are still having alot of busts. Where is the precip??

[CAPE]

11 minutes ago, Mdecoy said:

I agree with this. I didn't think anything of this event by last night.

However the NWS did have my specific backyard in the 1-3 inch area.

I guess I don't get the rush to absolve them of blame. Are you an employee there? A blown forecast is a blown forecast. That's all. When I screw up at my job, I get called on it too.

No. I pay attention. I think they do an excellent job for the most part. Do you realize forecasting snow amounts in marginal situations is never easy? Of course you don't. You just want to piss and moan when it doesn't work out.

Perhaps TWC has a discussion forum that would be a better fit for you. Maybe you can participate in the winter storm naming process for the upcoming winter!

[MN Transplant]

1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

Not even 0.1” if rain. Didn’t GFS have us all getting 0.75” of liquid?

0.05” here.  Dipped below 40 by the slimmest of margins.

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, Mdecoy said:

Ok, but that is still a blown forecast.

 a nowcast update by looking out the window/temps and radar doesn't absolve them of yesterday at noon saying "Inch per hour, heavy rates, roads could be covered, morning commute will be impacted by winter weather"

You were never supposed to get squat. The text your citing was meant for their NW zones. They threw in your area as a "worst case scenario" just in case because being ready for snow and not getting it is less harmful then having people caught off guard. That's how they skew. But if you looked at any guidance or read their discussions yesterday or in the evening BEFORE the storm (not a nowcast) then you would have known that. I even knew my area was likely not getting much by the time I went to bed last night.  Up here it was a minor bust but even I'm not upset at nws. 

If you expected a lot of snow the bust is yours. Stop blaming others for your own mistakes. Everyone else on here could have told you yesterday that you weren't getting accumulating snow. So if you couldn't figure that out it's your issue. 

But that's not what this is really about. You just want an excuse to biotch again. It's what you do. If it snowed you would either be absent or complaining about how it's wasted in April and is melting by noon or how it was 2" instead of 5" or some other crap. You're a dark cloud all the time.  Your only happy the 2/10 years where we get a historic epic winter like 2010 and 2014. Every other year you complain non stop all the time and it's what you want to do. 

Guess what you are above your median snowfall this year. This has actually been a snowier then normal winter where you are.  And I don't care if you don't like HOW it snowed. If it didn't come the way you like. At the right time or right amounts. Where do you think you live that you can be that picky about how it snows?  You have more snow this year then your location gets in about 60% of winters.  It's April. STFU already. 

[Fozz]

I'm definitely above my median this year (and close to average) so I can't call it a bad season. 

[psuhoffman]

24 minutes ago, Ji said:

2 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

Not even 0.1” if rain. Didn’t GFS have us all getting 0.75” of liquid?

I feel like the long range modeling is better than the short range. We are still having alot of busts. Where is the precip??

Seriously we're others not expecting the north shift at the last minute?  As soon as the high res guidance started hinting at it 24 hours ago this was a done deal to me. I don't care that "the euro looks great" these things shift north at the last minute EVERY time. I seriously can remember over a dozen similar waves and not one that didn't shift north the last minute. Sometimes that north shift was a good thing for me. Most of the time it screwed me over. But it's been constant. Why wouldn't you expect it regardless of what some numbers from a computer say?  NWP is meant to be guidance not a forecast. I never expected 4-8" even when the euro and gfs were showing that for me yesterday because I knew from experience that the axis would end up 25-50 miles north of NWP.  If not more. Believing NWP 100% is bad forecasting and not the fault of the guidance.  

[osfan24]

2 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

Not even 0.1” if rain. Didn’t GFS have us all getting 0.75” of liquid?

Yeah that was my takeaway. GFS had .75-1 inch of liquid through Central MD and I got a few showers. Feel bad for our northern friends. They looked good for at least a couple inches and this thing just shifted way north. Pretty crazy how north it ended up.

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

The "snow depth changing" maps on NOAA site for models is such an awesome tool. It nailed this and many other winterstorms this year. Always biases low. NAM had continuously shown no major snowfall up through southern PA, and GFS too 

[psuhoffman]

32 minutes ago, Mdecoy said:

I agree with this. I didn't think anything of this event by last night.

However the NWS did have my specific backyard in the 1-3 inch area.

I guess I don't get the rush to absolve them of blame. Are you an employee there? A blown forecast is a blown forecast. That's all. When I screw up at my job, I get called on it too.

It was obvious from their discussion they didn't expect you to get any snow. But they hedge liberal on the fringes so as not to let people get caught off guard if a surprise happens. 

Maybe that's the wrong approach. I would prefer they go with "the most likely" outcome and not hedge unless it's truly a life threatening issue or better yet issue a probability based forecast but too many people are too stupid to understand that so they are stuck in a tough position. 

You are just being rediculous. You were only ever forecasted to get an inch. Stop the 1-3 nonsense. You were near the southern edge of the 1-3 and if you looked at the amount map not the range one it said 1" in your area. So stop skewing it. At worst they only missed by 1". Your whining because they were off 1"??? Ugh 

[CAPE]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

It was obvious from their discussion they didn't expect you to get any snow. But they hedge liberal on the fringes so as not to let people get caught off guard if a surprise happens. 

Maybe that's the wrong approach. I would prefer they go with "the most likely" outcome and not hedge unless it's truly a life threatening issue or better yet issue a probability based forecast but too many people are too stupid to understand that so they are stuck in a tough position. 

You are just being rediculous. You were only ever forecasted to get an inch. Stop the 1-3 nonsense. You were near the southern edge of the 1-3 and if you looked at the amount map not the range one it said 1" in your area. So stop skewing it. At worst they only missed by 1". Your whining because they were off 1"??? Ugh 

All he does is shiit up threads. He needs to go post in his designated subforum. I honestly cannot recall one substantive post here from him.

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

Atlantic Tropical SE ridge shows itself again in the nowtime. This has been an interesting feature, summertime SE flow seems to be hitting storms giving the appearance of 30N at 40N

https://radar.weather.gov/Conus/northeast.php

[87storms]

woke up at 645, checked the radar.  thought i had it on future radar for a sec because the storm was already over here.  i think the nam 3k was the most accurate as far as showing how quickly the system could be in/out.  last i checked it had it as primarily a 3-8am event (estimated).  

also, the fact that it was 50 degrees out at midnight for a system expected in 3-4 hours in april without a strong high was probably not the best setup for the cities.

[87storms]

3 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said:

Atlantic Tropical SE ridge shows itself again in the nowtime. This has been an interesting feature, summertime SE flow seems to be hitting storms giving the appearance of 30N at 40N

https://radar.weather.gov/Conus/northeast.php

this is an interesting feature too...looks like a little contrail of showers/storms...

https://radar.weather.gov/Conus/centgrtlakes_loop.php

[North Balti Zen]

You know, folks, it's okay to let Masetro and others feel disappointed in how the winter has played out for whatever area they are in without lecturing them constantly about how they are wrong to feel the way they feel. Not everyone has the ability to live in the very bestest snow locations in the mid-atlantic. And the need to tell others how to feel gets weird in these threads. If Maestro is disappointed with how this winter played out, he (she - Masestro, apologies, don't want to get your gender wrong) gets to be. And he's not wrong, no matter how much you lecture him. He gets to feel what he wants to feel. And the ground truth in Balt City of how he feels isn't off, no matter how much you try and tell him the crap sandwich is really prime rib.

[psuhoffman]

16 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

Yeah that was my takeaway. GFS had .75-1 inch of liquid through Central MD and I got a few showers. Feel bad for our northern friends. They looked good for at least a couple inches and this thing just shifted way north. Pretty crazy how north it ended up.

Not really.  Forget all the historical references I could bring up. Let's only use the last 2 years. We had 2 similar west to east baroclinic waves. Last February we were all celebrating our 3-6" on the euro along 95 about 24-36 hours out. Up here all guidance had 4-8 or even 5-10" 24 hours out. I ended up with barely anything and the 4-8" area ended up north of Harrisburg PA. 

This February we had another similar wave. This one was tricky because there was a split (something that happens often) in the precip. But from 24-48 hours out 95 up to my area was supposed to be the northern precip band with the best Qpf. The southern wave with the wet snow burst was supposed to be down in central VA and southern MD. That ended up near D.C. to Baltimore and I ended up in the hole and the real legit snow band ended up across central PA into northern NJ. 

This storm seems to have made the same adjustment every other of this storm type has made. Others can whine about how NWP can't get it right but I simply would rather note the consistent bias and correct for it with common sense. 

[mappy]

24 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Woke up at 3:40 am with temp at 35 and moderate snow and by 430 temp dropped to 33 but precip changed to a mix . Ended up with .60" qpf and .50" of  slush accumulation.  I never fully bought into the 3-6" that models were painting but even yesterday with mesos shifting  north  I still expected 1-3". Qpf was still sufficient.  The mid and upper levels just didn't cooperate it seems  . The whole system just bumped north just enough to put the M/ D line on the wrong side of the clean column. All in all it was fun to track an April event . 

yeah was pouring sleet when i woke up, then mixed back and forth. id call it a trace at least. quite the slushy mess on the car when i left, ground was covered but it wasn't measurable. oh well. 

[RevWarReenactor]

23 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

It was obvious from their discussion they didn't expect you to get any snow. But they hedge liberal on the fringes so as not to let people get caught off guard if a surprise happens. 

Maybe that's the wrong approach. I would prefer they go with "the most likely" outcome and not hedge unless it's truly a life threatening issue or better yet issue a probability based forecast but too many people are too stupid to understand that so they are stuck in a tough position. 

You are just being rediculous. You were only ever forecasted to get an inch. Stop the 1-3 nonsense. You were near the southern edge of the 1-3 and if you looked at the amount map not the range one it said 1" in your area. So stop skewing it. At worst they only missed by 1". Your whining because they were off 1"??? Ugh 

This is simply not true.

We were under a winter weather advisory, New Castle County. Where I reside. The txt forecast definitely said 1 to 3, also the zone forecast listed 2 inches for me, and in Maryland in Harford county for Bel Air, they listed 2-3, also under a WWA. Neither area saw so much as a flake. This was not "worst case" or anything of that nature. This was their forecast.

This is fact, and its a shame I didn't save any of it.

Also the txt mentioned, Monday morning commute impact, possible accumulation on the roads, one inch per hour with higher rates, was for my area. To their credit they did mention more up near the PA border, of course my house is only 8 miles from PA. Signs on I-95 yesterday read "winter storm tomorrow morning, be prepared" Millions of people see these.

 

It was a blown forecast.

I don't get why you have to get so offended over that. I am just stating a fact.

 

 

Separate issue: I will agree that discarding the NWS and reading here would have been a more accurate depiction of events, and it was.

 

 

 

[87storms]

i haven't found the forecasts to be very good at all in general the last week or so.  maybe it's the time of year, but there were a couple days last week where the forecast indicated rain and one day it ended up being sunny out.  there's a lot of talk about winter busts, but they happen all year round on smaller scales (clouds vs sun, light rain vs just clouds).  and yesterday was definitely nicer than expected.  damn near perfect weather imo.

[North Balti Zen]

Just now, wxtrix said:

there’s a whole thread dedicated to whining. it’s really tiresome to keep finding in the discussion threads.

And the policing of what people don't think is appropriate is even more tiring. And so it goes. Maesto makes a comment and then gets lectured for a page by folks. I submit that is itself crap and tiring.

[psuhoffman]

23 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

You know, folks, it's okay to let Masetro and others feel disappointed in how the winter has played out for whatever area they are in without lecturing them constantly about how they are wrong to feel the way they feel. Not everyone has the ability to live in the very bestest snow locations in the mid-atlantic. And the need to tell others how to feel gets weird in these threads. If Maestro is disappointed with how this winter played out, he (she - Masestro, apologies, don't want to get your gender wrong) gets to be. And he's not wrong, no matter how much you lecture him. He gets to feel what he wants to feel. And the ground truth in Balt City of how he feels isn't off, no matter how much you try and tell him the crap sandwich is really prime rib.

Nothing you said is wrong...and I understand and respect where you are coming from.  Let me offer my point of view also though, not to change your mind (don't even want too) but just to explain where I am coming from when I push back.  So a few counter points (again not trying to fight I don't mind your post at all just want to explain my POV).

1.  I don't have a problem with Mastro at all...I did push back on his one post but in general he/she isn't one of the ones that sh!ts up the threads all winter long.  But some do.  There is a difference between doing what you do or Mastro and commenting SOMETIMES about frustrations and doing it everyday almost over and over and over all winter long in 70% of winters.  So there is kind of an "enough is enough" thing there to me.  I didn't bother with it in December, or January...by February it started to get annoying, by March I was done, and now its April and still hearing some poeple say the same things over and over again about the crappy winter just gets to the point of UGH.  Just my opinion on that.

2.  I am NOT trying to change anyone's mind about what they should think is a good winter, or what is acceptable, or what to root for...or anything.  That is all personal preference.  BUT I have noticed certain trends from specific posters over the many years together here and on other boards and I do think some must be lacking some basic climo perspective when they crap all over 70-80 percent of winters...even ones where we end up around or ABOVE normal.  I also keep pushing the median versus the mean since median around here is much closer to NORMAL and what we should expect then that mean number which is skewed by those 20% outlier years like 2010 and 2014 and does not represent a typical winter here.  Just trying to offer perspective to what we can expect and what normal actually is because some people seem to expect 20-25" and a warning criteria snowfall EVERY winter and historical data indicates that is a top 30% winter NOT a normal one.  A normal winter around in Baltimore is like 15" and a top storm of 3-6".  In other words...THIS YEAR lol.  

If people think that sucks that is fine.  Guess what I AGREE WITH THEM.  I also think that sucks...that's why I commute a ridiculous distance everyday to live somewhere that sucks less.  But expecting climo to change because someone doesn't like it seems a bit off to me.  I just want to make sure we are grounded in reality here.  Some don't seem to be.  Their expectations are out of line with climo here.  And the problem is then we have to hear them complain almost EVERY winter because reality will almost never live up to their expectations.  

This is not location specific.  CAPE doesn't live somewhere with better snow climo then Baltimore but you don't hear him complaining everyday about snow because he has a solid grasp of what to expect around here.  I know what to expect in my area.  Randy knows what to expect in DC.  Doesn't mean we are happy with results when a year isn't great, we all hope for the next 2010 or 2014 EVERY year...but once it becomes apparent that its not going to happen we don't make 200 posts about how awful it is that this isn't one of those years.  

3.  They do have the right to complain.  I don't want to stop them.  Yea I said STFU but that was more for emphasis, I dont care if Mdecoy actually stops posting or not.  But if he has the right to complain 25 times a day about it, don't I also have the right to complain about him complaining about it and push back with snowfall facts to argue he is being silly?  So I don't wish to stop them from feeling any way they want, but if they have the right to post how they feel about it then I feel I have the right to post how I feel about it also...  If they can complain so can I.  

I really hope you don't take this as me taking opposition to you.  You're point is noted and I dont have any problem with you giving your position.  Just thought I would explain mine.  Again everyone is entitled to their POV on this imo...I just feel I have the right to state my POV also.  

[Fozz]

Shockingly (lol) this has been a very impressive storm for the 40N crowd. Several of my friends in the NYC metro have 5-7" of snow. Northern NJ is the new Jay Peak.