April 2 Snow Event

[Fozz]

I'm not feeling it. Probably going to get 35 degree rain. Next.

[Maestrobjwa]

Oh sure...NOW We get a north trend...lol Can't get one when we need it, and when we don't want it we get one! Not that I was banking on this or anything, but it's just a continuous poke in the eye that makes ya wish this screwjob of a winter would actually quit (unless it has one last hail mary next weekend, lol)

[87storms]

1 hour ago, Fozz said:

I'm not feeling it. Probably going to get 35 degree rain. Next.

maybe a rain to mix/snow/slush.  yea i'll pass.  next weekend seems more interesting.

[WVclimo]

Skies have cleared here and the temp has dropped 3 degrees in the last hour.  Down to 47.  It feels so strange to see the sky still light at 8:30 p.m. while anticipating snow to fall in a few hours.

[RevWarReenactor]

1 hour ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Oh sure...NOW We get a north trend...lol Can't get one when we need it, and when we don't want it we get one! Not that I was banking on this or anything, but it's just a continuous poke in the eye that makes ya wish this screwjob of a winter would actually quit (unless it has one last hail mary next weekend, lol)

Yeah, its like.

Dear Winter, we could have used this in January and February. Now you are not welcome here. Go away.

[psuhoffman]

2 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Oh sure...NOW We get a north trend...lol Can't get one when we need it, and when we don't want it we get one! Not that I was banking on this or anything, but it's just a continuous poke in the eye that makes ya wish this screwjob of a winter would actually quit (unless it has one last hail mary next weekend, lol)

Aren't you in Baltimore?  Which just had 4-6" depending on where in town you are.  Which is within an inch or two of their median winter?  

[psuhoffman]

Trends not good even up here. Hrrr is bleeding north every run. Yes I know it sucks but it usually trends towards reality not away from it and you all told me not to worry when I was bothered that the hrrr was shifting the ccb way east a few weeks ago between the 18z and 0z runs.  Of course 0z runs confirmed. I get the same feeling that 0z runs will shift north as well and the 4"+ totals will be north of the PA line not along the northern tier of Maryland like the gfs and euro had it. My guess is 1-3" right along pa border.  The 4-8" area likely is central PA. 

[psuhoffman]

I wonder how many more times some will "die on the euro hill" before they realize its not what it used to be, even at 12-24 hours. 

[87storms]

10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Aren't you in Baltimore?  Which just had 4-6" depending on where in town you are.  Which is within an inch or two of their median winter?  

this winter was pretty weak sauce here.  it snowed good for about 4 hours that last storm.  it was nice, but once it got going the good stuff was just about over.  by numbers, i'm sure we got close to average or something, but we didn't get a single legit snowstorm from start to finish this winter...nor did we get one last winter.  you might be right in regards to sacrificing a short commute to live where it snows

[Chris78]

It's still 44 degrees here in Smithsburg.  4 miles from the pa border. Not expecting much from this. LWX has been cutting back totals all day. 

[87storms]

12 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

It's still 44 degrees here in Smithsburg.  4 miles from the pa border. Not expecting much from this. LWX has been cutting back totals all day. 

lol, yea it's about 50 here with a dewpoint around 35.  if i see a snowflake i'm calling that a win.

[Chris78]

1 minute ago, 87storms said:

lol, yea it's about 50 here with a dewpoint around 35.  if i see a snowflake i'm calling that a win.

The 3k nam is almost a shut out south of the pa border...lol

[Chris78]

8 hours ago, Ellinwood said:

Pretty meh south of 40N, IMO. Surface wet-bulbs of 34-35 degrees won't cut it unless there's really good rates for a few hours.

This map looks spot on. Nice!

[Maestrobjwa]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

Aren't you in Baltimore?  Which just had 4-6" depending on where in town you are.  Which is within an inch or two of their median winter?  

We got 4.5 or so in the city...my benchmark was 5 so technically still no warning event IMBY since 2016! Yeah, we were about median snowfall...but it was a frustrating median, lol

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

Looks good

https://radar.weather.gov/Conus/centgrtlakes_loop.php

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said:

We got 4.5 or so in the city...my benchmark was 5 so technically still no warning event IMBY since 2016! Yeah, we were about median snowfall...but it was a frustrating median, lol

Baltimore has a LOT of winters without a warning event. I agree that a typical winter in Baltimore sucks. That's why I drive an hour to live somewhere that gets about double the snow. But climo is what climo is. When people act like a winter that ended up pretty close to a typical normal snowfall year was awful and some punishment by god it makes me wonder. If a winter with snowfall in the teens and a high storm of 4.5" (btw most of the city reported 5-6" I thought) is awful then that means 50-60% of your winters are awful because that's about how many are like that or worse. I reserve an F or awful for that 10-20% of worst years. Last year qualified. This year was just a typical winter in the end. And if some places get a freak snow next weekend it could end up an above normal snowfall winter in most places. 

[Cobalt]

Baltimore has a LOT of winters without a warning event. I agree that a typical winter in Baltimore sucks. That's why I drive an hour to live somewhere that gets about double the snow. But climo is what climo is. When people act like a winter that ended up pretty close to a typical normal snowfall year was awful and some punishment by god it makes me wonder. If a winter with snowfall in the teens and a high storm of 4.5" (btw most of the city reported 5-6" I thought) is awful then that means 50-60% of your winters are awful because that's about how many are like that or worse. I reserve an F or awful for that 10-20% of worst years. Last year qualified. This year was just a typical winter in the end. And if some places get a freak snow next weekend it could end up an above normal snowfall winter in most places. 

Someone posted the odds of a warning event each year at the airports, and it was something like 75% at IAD, 50% at BWI & 33% at DCA (at least from what I remember)


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[psuhoffman]

27 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

The 3k nam is almost a shut out south of the pa border...lol

Color me not shocked the 0z is coming in north! This adjustment is a 90% of the time thing. Plus people sheet on the hrrr but from what I've seen it's fine for trends. Yes it's awful at range but typically it starts trending towards reality around hour 10 in. So it can pick up on trends between runs if as you get closer run after run it's going one way. Every time I've seen that the hrrr was on to something. Please don't take this to mean the hrrr output is good and should be used as the basis of a forecast and at range outside 10 hours it's garbage. But if the storm is 6 hours away and the hrrr is trending north or dryer every run between runs typically that's a real trend and the next run confirms it. 

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, Cobalt said:

Someone posted the odds of a warning event each year at the airports, and it was something like 75% at IAD, 50% at BWI & 33% at DCA (at least from what I remember)


.

Yea it's pretty low along 95. Too low for the amount of whining that goes on when we get a year without a 5"+ event. If climo is only getting one of those 50% of the time (or less)  it's not some travesty when we go a year or even 2 without one. 

[psuhoffman]

19 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said:

Looks good

https://radar.weather.gov/Conus/centgrtlakes_loop.php

For rain?

[Cobalt]

Yea it's pretty low along 95. Too low for the amount of whining that goes on when we get a year without a 5"+ event. If climo is only getting one of those 50% of the time (or less)  it's not some travesty when we go a year or even 2 without one. 

Yup, which makes me content with 4.2" being my biggest storm of the year. I know my climo. In most storms we get more than DCA, but less than IAD. When D.C. Rains, we rain. I'm certainly not fully out of UHI hell, and elevation is little help (271 feet). Multiple reason as to why I'll most likely move West and/or North when I'm older.


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[Chris78]

4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Color me not shocked the 0z is coming in north! This adjustment is a 90% of the time thing. Plus people sheet on the hrrr but from what I've seen it's fine for trends. Yes it's awful at range but typically it starts trending towards reality around hour 10 in. So it can pick up on trends between runs if as you get closer run after run it's going one way. Every time I've seen that the hrrr was on to something. Please don't take this to mean the hrrr output is good and should be used as the basis of a forecast and at range outside 10 hours it's garbage. But if the storm is 6 hours away and the hrrr is trending north or dryer every run between runs typically that's a real trend and the next run confirms it. 

This looks like a central pa jackpot.im expecting very little lol. These west to East moving storms seem to trend north in the final 48 hours. Way to many times I've had the rug pulled out when we are on the southern edge of the good stuff. 

Now next weekend has my attention . Models have it much colder prior to the storm.

[showmethesnow]

3 hours ago, losetoa6 said:

Just looked out the window and have moderate snow falling . .just started recently it appears...Looks like a very light coating on mulch 

Visiting family in western Pa and have about 3 inches with light snow still falling. Everything is coated in snow here and expect that when the sun does start rising it will be quite a scene. Will be heading on home around 9 am. My wife likes taking pics so I might take rt 30 instead of the turnpike. 30 takes you across southern PA through the laurel highlands so hopefully my wife might luck into some spectacular pics. 

eta: Actually went out and measured and we picked up 5 1/2 inches on the jeep.

[RevWarReenactor]

They said 1-3

We got rain.

What a shocker.

[mappy]

Been a sleet snow mix here since I got up.


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[CAPE]

48 minutes ago, Mdecoy said:

They said 1-3

We got rain.

What a shocker.

You call yourself a weather hobbyist? Maybe pay attention to more than the point and click over your yard.

From Mount Holly AFD early this morning-

In the urban corridor, snow totals are a big question mark. With the northward trend in the 00Z model output (agreeing with the past several rounds of hi-res guidance), the Philly area looks to be right on the borderline between virtually no snow and perhaps an inch or two of accumulation on grassy surfaces.

And updated recently-

As alluded to in the previous discussion, any snow/sleet accumulations in the southern tier of the advisory area look minor at best. Trimmed Cecil/New Castle/Salem Counties with this update, and may trim portions of the Philadelphia metropolitan area eastward to southeast Burlington County in the next hour or two if trends continue.

 

[WxUSAF]

Not even 0.1” if rain. Didn’t GFS have us all getting 0.75” of liquid?

[smokeybandit]

I wasn't expecting any snow, but I was expecting some rain.  Got about 5 minutes of moderate rain, then it was over.

[Stormpc]

I got .03 in of rain. Not even close to the driest model run. No contest.  

[CAPE]

31 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Not even 0.1” if rain. Didn’t GFS have us all getting 0.75” of liquid?

0z GFS was quite a bit drier than previous runs- had generally 0.2 -0.4 for I-95 points S and E. The NAMs were much drier than that. Looked like the heavy stuff was clearly going to be in southern/central PA as of last night.