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April 2 Snow Event


NorthArlington101

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24 minutes ago, nj2va said:

NWS Pitt in their forecaster’s discussion held off on a watch as they don’t think the mountains will see widespread 6”.  WSW currently for the far western ridges of LWX zone for 6” or more.  

Looks good for the highlands near Canaan and Oakland. Heading out?

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5 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Looks good for the highlands near Canaan and Oakland. Heading out?

Yeah, we’re here for Easter until Monday.  Pitt is forecasting 3-5” here but similar to LWX, when they’re low, we usually do better.  I think 5-8” out here — Canaan/John should be the winner.  

I’m watching the game on the deck with a Hendricks martini...crazy it’ll snow in like 30 hours.

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32 minutes ago, Fozz said:

I was getting a little excited at first, but it looks like it's shifting north, so not much of a chance anymore.

I can't really get myself worked up about it either since whatever falls will be vaporized by the April sun within hours.

This is a non event outside of the far northern tier of MD into PA. That has been clear for days. Today really turned it for me. Was outside all day doing stuff. Was glorious. I really don't even care at all about late next week at this point. 

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1 minute ago, nj2va said:

Yeah, we’re here for Easter until Monday.  Pitt is forecasting 3-5” here but similar to LWX, when they’re low, we usually do better.  I think 5-8” out here — Canaan/John should be the winner.  

I’m watching the game on the deck with a Hendricks martini...crazy it’ll snow in like 30 hours.

Nice!

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6 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Looks good for the highlands near Canaan and Oakland. Heading out?

Heading back from western PA Monday morning right on the tail of the storm. Hoping the farther north solutions don't verify otherwise could be dealing with some serious travel issues especially in the higher elevations. 

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4 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

This is a non event outside of the far northern tier of MD into PA. That has been clear for days. Today really turned it for me. Was outside all day doing stuff. Was glorious. I really don't even care at all about late next week at this point. 

Would never turn down snow but yeah, some of the warmer temps we have seen lately really have my mind shifting towards camping season and other outdoor activities.

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For any success (slushy coating) around the cities we are absolutely relying on rates to overcome. 12z RGEM showed a situation where the storm is amped enough to probably flip everyone to snow for awhile.

The 12z ARW and ARW2 also showed an interesting scenario, much further south, seems like a low pops off the southern Delmarva.

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38 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Quite a heavy thump depicted by the 3k.  That's got to be 1 to 1.5" hour rates for a couple hours.  Shouldnt have much problem accumulating..esp at night for the northern tier. 

nam3km_ref_frzn_neus_39.png

Something to watch out for with these waves, there is often a duel max. The one you really want is the northern max that's associated with the jet dynamics. That is always underdone yet becomes the heavier snow band in the end. The southern max is associated with deeper moisture with the baroclinicity along the boundary.  But ratios will be low there. We saw this play out in Feb and we got stuck between the two bands. That one was worse then usual but that duel max is common. Right now the guidance gets us with the southern max. I would prefer the northern one of course but I won't complain about 2-4" in April. But how that banding will set up is just coming into range. Have to see how that looks come tomorrow. 

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4 hours ago, losetoa6 said:

Quite a heavy thump depicted by the 3k.  That's got to be 1 to 1.5" hour rates for a couple hours.  Shouldnt have much problem accumulating..esp at night for the northern tier. 

nam3km_ref_frzn_neus_39.png

The nams have the split I was worried about and put us right in the screwzone like in February. But the other guidance isn't showing that. The nams caught onto that first last time. Hopefully other guidance doesn't start moving that way tomorrow. But I've seen that gap between bands a lot with these waves. 

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Looking over the precip max on the latest runs and we see the Euro and the NAM's running farthest north with the max running through southern PA through our region. NAM's at this point or the only models that suggest a possibility of a duel precip max (per PSU's mention yesterday). 12K NAM with a weaker secondary running through central MD. 3K is hinting at the possibility of a secondary through central MD. GFS is the southern outlier on precip max with it running through central MD. CMC and the RGEM are the compromise solution with the max centered roughly on the PA/MD line.

As far as the strip of snowfall max. all the models are centering that on the Mason Dixon line up through southern/central PA. Euro and NAMs are the farthest north through southern/central PA while the rest like more towards the state line. GFS is the least aggressive with snowfall totals and a quick glance suggests that is due to it being a warm outlier. 

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this can be a rainer for all i care.  looks like a quick hitter/fringe temps, so i don't think that we're really missing much in the city.  i'd rather keep the bike trails dry (or not snow covered) at this point.  i'm ready to move on and hope for better opportunities next season.

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