NorthArlington101 Posted March 30, 2018 Share Posted March 30, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 30, 2018 Share Posted March 30, 2018 18z GFS is in good agreement with its 12z run. Snow is confined to the NW of the cities for the most part up towards the Mason Dixon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MountainGeek Posted March 30, 2018 Share Posted March 30, 2018 45 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said: Think Boxing Day. I love how the Euro manages to shut-out MBY. Don't look at the 18Z GFS for Sun/Mon then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 31, 2018 Share Posted March 31, 2018 I’m not sure how I feel about both the euro and gfs showing 4" for my backyard for Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted March 31, 2018 Share Posted March 31, 2018 Nam twins are pretty juicy and snowy for northern third. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted March 31, 2018 Share Posted March 31, 2018 Just posting this to show the lift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mordecai Posted March 31, 2018 Share Posted March 31, 2018 00z GFS nice thump for maryland & NW areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MountainGeek Posted March 31, 2018 Share Posted March 31, 2018 3 hours ago, mappy said: I’m not sure how I feel about both the euro and gfs showing 4" for my backyard for Monday The 3K NAM isn't concerned with your feelings......6"+ for you. Ferrier cuts that in half to 3" or so. Not a bad appetizer for the April HECS next weekend. ETA: CMC on the bandwagon as well. Overall the event seems to be juicing up notably over previous runs; not seeing any obvious signs of a north trend yet -- something to keep a close eye on as PSU mentioned earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 31, 2018 Share Posted March 31, 2018 00z CMC likes N VA into MD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 31, 2018 Share Posted March 31, 2018 00z UKIE is wet... going to have to wait for the meteograms though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kleimax Posted March 31, 2018 Share Posted March 31, 2018 Don’t think any of this will stick honestly but I hope it does Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 31, 2018 Share Posted March 31, 2018 Looks like there will be a fairly compact area of heavy snow with this event.. Nice jet streak and 700 mb fronto forcing set up over N MD into southern and E PA, and NJ. This is where the strong lift should be able to quickly overcome the warm temps and allow snow to fall hard enough to stick. And its occurring at night so no sun angle issues. Probably around 1-2" with maybe 3 in a few spots. Congrats Showme, PSU and Mappy- they get to pad their snow totals. Instant meltage once its stops Monday morning lol. The rest of us to the south of that area will see mostly rain/snow tv with temps likely bottoming out at around 35-36 during the event. Maybe a slushy coating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 31, 2018 Share Posted March 31, 2018 2 hours ago, C.A.P.E. said: Looks like there will be a fairly compact area of heavy snow with this event.. Nice jet streak and 700 mb fronto forcing set up over N MD into southern and E PA, and NJ. This is where the strong lift should be able to quickly overcome the warm temps and allow snow to fall hard enough to stick. And its occurring at night so no sun angle issues. Probably around 1-2" with maybe 3 in a few spots. Congrats Showme, PSU and Mappy- they get to pad their snow totals. Instant meltage once its stops Monday morning lol. The rest of us to the south of that area will see mostly rain/snow tv with temps likely bottoming out at around 35-36 during the event. Maybe a slushy coating. If it’s going to snow I might as well embrace it. I’m still 4" shy from climo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 31, 2018 Share Posted March 31, 2018 Yay? Cutting these totals in half seems reasonable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted March 31, 2018 Share Posted March 31, 2018 Thump! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 31, 2018 Share Posted March 31, 2018 Thoughts really haven't changed from the last few days in regards to Sun night/Mon morning system. Think any possible impact from this system will be confined to north and west of Baltimore mainly around the PA/MD line and the higher elevations. Could see Baltimore eek out a slushy coating, with DC at best scoring white rain for a time. The general temp profile for the cities from 800 mb on down to the surface leading into the storm is rough to say the least. And even in the meat of the storm 925-950 mb to the surface is torching. At this point the GFS is the warm outlier with the other models for the most part coming in colder. If we see verification more so towards the GFS snowfall would be minimal with it probably being a struggle to even attain an inch or two of slushy accumulations around the PA line. The colder solutions on the other hand and we are probably talking 3-4 inches in the favored locations. At this point I would probably lean towards the colder solutions as the mesos for the most part favor that. Today's and tonight's meso runs (will be keeping an eye on the 3K NAM in particular) will be very telling as they get within a reasonable time range for their use when it comes to the temp profiles and their evolution leading into and during the storm. I will point out that elevation could have a huge impact on accumulations. It could be a case where PSU with his 1000 ft+ elevation scores 4-6 inch totals and those 500 ft lower are lucky to get an inch or two. That extra 500 ft of warmth off the surface for the snow to fall through could definitely make or break many. Started to do up a little something from the 06Z runs to show the issues involved with the temps at different levels of the atmosphere but found I ran out of time. Visiting family in western PA so time is somewhat limited. I hope to find some time after the 12Z runs to throw a little something up for the novices so they can understand the intricacies involved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted March 31, 2018 Share Posted March 31, 2018 looks like a 3-6am arrival of precip, so we have that in our favor as we'll need as much time after sunset to cool down as possible. still looks like around 0.5". actually looks like a decent quick hitter for the northern tier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 31, 2018 Share Posted March 31, 2018 10 hours ago, MountainGeek said: The 3K NAM isn't concerned with your feelings......6"+ for you. Ferrier cuts that in half to 3" or so. Not a bad appetizer for the April HECS next weekend. ETA: CMC on the bandwagon as well. Overall the event seems to be juicing up notably over previous runs; not seeing any obvious signs of a north trend yet -- something to keep a close eye on as PSU mentioned earlier. I see it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted March 31, 2018 Share Posted March 31, 2018 16 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I see it Yep, waving it bye-bye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MountainGeek Posted March 31, 2018 Share Posted March 31, 2018 20 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I see it Yup was just going to mention that -- looks like with the latest runs just about everything started going significantly north. PSU's crystal ball FTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 31, 2018 Share Posted March 31, 2018 12 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Euro still looked fine to me for up here ...we'll see if it bumps north like the nams. Still 40 hours or so out and that's really stretching the 3k s range still . I think 0z tonight will probably tell the tale . We will see. Nam shifted the axis from central MD to northern PA in 4 runs. That fits with typical late trends with these and usually continues to game time. I always want to be north of the axis 48 hours out with west to east frontal waves. But maybe this will be the 1/10 that breaks the mold. Also I'm not saying we won't get any snow up here. But I'm leaning a minor 1-3" event on the southern edge as places north of us get the 4-8" axis. And it wouldn't shock me if even that shifted north of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted March 31, 2018 Share Posted March 31, 2018 Props to the ICON, it's been locked in to the correct solution since 0z Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 31, 2018 Share Posted March 31, 2018 Rgem shifted north too. It's better then the nam for the pa border area but one more nudge north like the last run and we will be out of it too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted March 31, 2018 Share Posted March 31, 2018 I'm about 4 miles from the pa border and I'm not feeling good about this one. This seems more like a central pa or northern pa jackpot. Hopefully I'm wrong and wake up to 4 inches of fresh snow Monday morning but being on the southern edge already is problematic. Still 48 hours to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 31, 2018 Share Posted March 31, 2018 2 minutes ago, Chris78 said: I'm about 4 miles from the pa border and I'm not feeling good about this one. This seems more like a central pa or northern pa jackpot. Hopefully I'm wrong and wake up to 4 inches of fresh snow Monday morning but being on the southern edge already is problematic. Still 48 hours to go. I’m feeling good for you for this. I am intrigued by next weekend. I probably shouldn’t be but with some hits to my south I am feeling more than meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 31, 2018 Share Posted March 31, 2018 Well, I kinda screwed the other thread up. Tried to move some posts from the Mid/Long range thread into the original April 2 thread and ended up merging instead. (So if you had a post in the old April 2 snowstorm thread, look for it there). Anyway here is the new, new April 2 thread. Discuss. (The storm, not my screw up). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted March 31, 2018 Share Posted March 31, 2018 To that - I say what event? DC proper is in my ballpark at this time. It's nice to lookout for the Philly crew tho (No, am I having doubts)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted March 31, 2018 Share Posted March 31, 2018 It's feeling like this event won't accumulate much. It might snow some big flakes, but short time and barely a dusting. These late spring heavy precip bursts with borderline temps, or moving into warm air depending on evaporative cooling don't do it in such a lite scenario Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted March 31, 2018 Share Posted March 31, 2018 I fly out to La Crosse Wisconsin Monday morning looks like snow there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted March 31, 2018 Share Posted March 31, 2018 RGEM ensemble looks better for the far northern tier, pretty much in line with the other guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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