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Napril Fools? Pattern and Model Discussion . . .

HimoorWx

By HimoorWx,
in New England

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, tamarack said:

The Climod site currently shows 100 and 97 for ACK, but that's still less difference 2nd/3rd than any other coastal location in the region.  BOS has 102/89, and since their low for 8/2 was a modest 83, I can believe their 89 came at 12:01 AM.  PVD had 104/93.  Farther north, PWM had 103/84, and I'm quite confident that was a cheap high there.  Farther inland/south things were closer:  ORH 96/90, BDL 101/97.  Still leaves me scratching my head about that 97 (or 98) on 8/3.

I looked at the hourly obs....and it looks like ACK hit 97F at 11am on 8/3 before the front came through.

METAR KACK 031300Z 35006KT 5SM DZ BKN150 31/23 A2986 RMK SLP115 T03110228

METAR KACK 031400Z 02008KT 7SM SCT150 33/21 A2986 RMK SLP115 T03330211

METAR KACK 031500Z 16010KT 7SM BKN150 36/22 A2987 RMK SLP119 T03610217

METAR KACK 031600Z 17008KT 4SM FGDZ OVC/// BKN120 27/21 A2988 RMK F BNK SE-SW VSBY FH7 SLP122 8/1/2 T02720211

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dendrite

dendrite

Posted
Posted
14 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I looked at the hourly obs....and it looks like ACK hit 97F at 11am on 8/3 before the front came through.

METAR KACK 031300Z 35006KT 5SM DZ BKN150 31/23 A2986 RMK SLP115 T03110228

METAR KACK 031400Z 02008KT 7SM SCT150 33/21 A2986 RMK SLP115 T03330211

METAR KACK 031500Z 16010KT 7SM BKN150 36/22 A2987 RMK SLP119 T03610217

METAR KACK 031600Z 17008KT 4SM FGDZ OVC/// BKN120 27/21 A2988 RMK F BNK SE-SW VSBY FH7 SLP122 8/1/2 T02720211

Maybe. Could be a manual ob error as well. Instead of 97 maybe it should’ve been 87 (31C/22C)? There was a lot of that back then. The wind was already out of the south in that ob at 10kt. 

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, tamarack said:

I guarantee that's also the case for any place in New England below 1,000 feet and 45 north, except in extraordinary instances.  When the Farmington co-op had 36.1" in April 2007, breaking their old April mark by 12.1" (with 125 years record), the LE from that snow was less than 40% of the month's total precip.  (One of those extraordinary months was April 1975.  They had 20.0" with 2.03" LE in the 3-5 blizzard, then only 0.57" precip - no more snow - for the rest of the month, so 78% was snow.  That's the formula - one big event then dry.)


I believe ACK reached 100 on hot Saturday 1975.

Which may be even more outlandish than the 101 at BHB, 30' asl.  We'd been picking blueberries that morning in Gouldsboro, maybe 10 miles NE of BHB, and it was so blazingly hot that I joked that we could sprinkle sugar and make jam right in the field.  We then drove to Acadia, and went swimming in Otter Cove, the one and only time (in my experience) that Maine saltwater actually felt warm.

Assuming you mean in deference to Aprils ... However, you're bold statement is obviously going to be more true on April 30 and but less so on April 1.  I mean the frequency of snow ... April's kind of downward hockey stick curve, end to end.

That said, the idea of correct expectation as a function of climate wasn't in question, although it's not a bad thing to point that out.     

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tamarack

tamarack

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I looked at the hourly obs....and it looks like ACK hit 97F at 11am on 8/3 before the front came through.

METAR KACK 031300Z 35006KT 5SM DZ BKN150 31/23 A2986 RMK SLP115 T03110228

METAR KACK 031400Z 02008KT 7SM SCT150 33/21 A2986 RMK SLP115 T03330211

METAR KACK 031500Z 16010KT 7SM BKN150 36/22 A2987 RMK SLP119 T03610217

METAR KACK 031600Z 17008KT 4SM FGDZ OVC/// BKN120 27/21 A2988 RMK F BNK SE-SW VSBY FH7 SLP122 8/1/2 T02720211

Great stuff - track the bd!  Late forenoon at ACK, evening at BDL (had 0.40" precip on the 3rd, presumably after notching their 97), probably wee hours of 8/4 at NYC, and not until a day later (as a garden variety cf) in SNJ.
As an aside, that's the most welcome bd in my memory.  We had no AC at our rather ramshackle and sweltering BGR apartment and the evening forecast on 8/2 for the next day was a high of 100.  Waking up to a cloudy, sprinkley 70 was wonderful.

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RUNNAWAYICEBERG

RUNNAWAYICEBERG

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

 I have had the woodstove going almost every night in April!    Cheaper than oil.

Yup. mine heats up the entire first floor, practically, and it rises enough upstairs in the master to not have to burn oil at all. Dont want to burn wood in mid April though...thought my current stack will last next winter, not anymore.

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tamarack

tamarack

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Assuming you mean in deference to Aprils ... However, you're bold statement is obviously going to be more true on April 30 and but less so on April 1.  I mean the frequency of snow ... April's kind of downward hockey stick curve, end to end.

That said, the idea of correct expectation as a function of climate wasn't in question, although it's not a bad thing to point that out.     

My thinking was for the whole of April.  Even the Maine foothills rarely have more April total LE as frozen than as liquid.  CAR might be a different story.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

Yeah this thing thru 40 hours...  basically beyond 60 hours we don't really return to the same depth and submersion of 850 mb temperatures right out to the end of the run.  

Today actually ended pretty damn nice...  54 here with lightening winds and some decent sky-lights for sun once and again... that's spring-like 

 

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dendrite

dendrite

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

the other thing on that is that the wind was S at 10 kts over the previous hour when it rose from 33 to 36 C ...  seems less likely but who knows -

Yeah that was my point in the previous post. Temps stayed cooler after the windshift to the south.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted
14 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Will Tips spring ever come?

I'm not sure why you keep labeling me with that distinction, as though I made some brash wild prediction that 'UP winters over' and we've turned the page ... ?

I never did any such thing or took any such tact - nadda dude.   I do recall merely bringing up what signals there were, for those that actually appreciated winter ending and look forward to spring. And, I always qualified by saying trend was against, too. 

Those were my threads regarding the snow chance in March up through early April...I started them... replete with plenty of winter arguments.   You are not just out of line, you are flat wrong.   

 

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I'm not sure why you keep labeling me with that distinction, as though I made some brash wild prediction that 'UP winters over' and we've turned the page ... ?

I never did any such thing or took any such tact - nadda dude.   I do recall merely bringing up what signals there were, for those that actually appreciated winter ending and look forward to spring. And, I always qualified by saying trend was against, too. 

Those were my threads regarding the snow chance in March up through early April...I started them... replete with plenty of winter arguments.   You are not just out of line, you are flat wrong.   

 

Lol chill, Tan that nape, hit the vaper, take a chill pill there Mr Freud

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