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Napril Fools? Pattern and Model Discussion . . .

HimoorWx

By HimoorWx,
in New England

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Meh. Dry air FTL. 

You mentioned this yesterday (I think) in the context of 'helping the icing/sleet is the fact that low dps re feeding in'  ... perhaps we should have taken that a step further.

In a sense ... it makes sense, because this high was so inordinately subsuming in the guidance; in fact, related to that ... I had been mentioning all week that it technically is not a BD front, not for our latitude anyway. 

It was a "N-door" front ... just a way to describe a boundary that settles S in general. But, BDs have certain hallmark synoptic evolution that give rise to them, only some of which were present in this overall scenario leading to, but more of which were not.  

In any case, the front 'cleaned house' entirely below the mid levels ... too prodigiously to saturate the low levels because of the dry air you noted coming from the scale and degree of that high pressure that is/was NW of the region (clue 1, not a BD).  As a result, too much mass of dry air to overcome for piddling spit mechanics, and they'll probably (and should) stay the Advisory layout ... but not so much for today... More so for the leading edge of the main baroclinic action as it presses into the region later tonight.  In that window it could be dicey ...even on the roads given to the amount of time we are spending < 0 C at the surface sucking the heat out of the streets - not sure it will be long enough to completely exhaust those materials of stows and thus making them prone to icing ... but we'll see.

It's just basically your typical April antics of ruining people's weekends that makes this part of the world such a gem at this time of year... perhaps, on steroids.  

One thing that's interesting to me is the winds...  We probably stay protected in the interior but should that SE-easter nature to the wind fields really scour out the southern and eastern zones early Monday, that's a factor in this thing that's gotten pretty much no attention in my observation.  

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

You mentioned this yesterday (I think) in the context of 'helping the icing/sleet is the fact that low dps re feeding in'  ... perhaps we should have taken that a step further.

In a sense ... it makes sense, because this high was so inordinately subsuming in the guidance; in fact, related to that ... I had been mentioning all week that it technically is not a BD front, not for our latitude anyway. 

It was a "N-door" front ... just a way to describe a boundary that settles S in general. But, BDs have certain hallmark synoptic evolution that give rise to them, only some of which were present in this overall scenario leading to, but more of which were not.  

In any case, the front 'cleaned house' entirely below the mid levels ... too prodigiously to saturate the low levels because of the dry air you noted coming from the scale and degree of that high pressure that is/was NW of the region (clue 1, not a BD).  As a result, too much mass of dry air to overcome for piddling spit mechanics, and they'll probably (and should) stay the Advisory layout ... but not so much for today... More so for the leading edge of the main baroclinic action as it presses into the region later tonight.  In that window it could be dicey ...even on the roads given to the amount of time we are spending < 0 C at the surface sucking the heat out of the streets - not sure it will be long enough to completely exhaust those materials of stows and thus making them prone to icing ... but we'll see.

It's just basically your typical April antics of ruining people's weekends that makes this part of the world such a gem at this time of year... perhaps, on steroids.  

One thing that's interesting to me is the winds...  We probably stay protected in the interior but should that SE-easter nature to the wind fields really scour out the southern and eastern zones early Monday, that's a factor in this thing that's gotten pretty much no attention in my observation.  

Yeah the synoptic lift is just into SNH so for awhile I think it’s just bands of this SG or FZDZ you can see wafting in on radar. I’m wondering if we get a good glaze tonight from NE CT through KBED-NBT points NW etc. 

Havent looked at tomorrow other than I think we are pretty much wedged 95 corridor NW until very end. 

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted
28 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Euro guidance interesting for Thursday. 

sorry to bomb you with replies, but I agree...

Could be a sneaky April '87 redux there - perhaps not so much as an analog (haven't even checked).. but it could be a cold rain/cat paw flipper to a burst of blue with that evolution ...

Folks, that would be also interesting because although the Euro is alone in this thinking (at this time) the model then still tries to pop the region into a deeper spring look ... by Saturday.  It has height rising dramatically from Friday afternoon through Saturday, dawn, which would imply DVM and a drying column.  850s are right around 0 C, which, this deeply post the equinox is easily supporting mid 60s if the damn wind can stay off shore and the RH fields don't offer self destructive pancaking ...  Both look plausible in those specifics. 

It may not be much for spring enthusiasts.. but it's the best thing there is to offer from the otherwise rank choices in the schit buffet being served by other guidance.    

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moneypitmike

moneypitmike

Posted
Posted

A real miss on the timing of the advisory as it went in effect yesterday evening.  Few folks outside of MA (and probably a bunch inside Mass) won't have precipitation until way late in the day or early evening. 

Contemplated canceling portions of the Winter Weather Advisory.
A complication will be the arrival of precipitation later this
afternoon, where sleet and or freezing rain would be possible.
Rather than dropping the advisory, only to maybe put it back in
place later, will wait it out a bit longer. The longer we
remain precipitation free, the less likely we would see wintry
precipitation, particularly across the coastal plain of RI and
SE MA.

 

27.2/18

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Just had some SG here.

Looks like some level stuff is starting to show up on radar blowing in from ocean over coastal MA. Given 900mb temps near -10C, def not surprising if there's some snow grains or even a few flakes if a steadier burst comes down. 

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
23 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Looks like some level stuff is starting to show up on radar blowing in from ocean over coastal MA. Given 900mb temps near -10C, def not surprising if there's some snow grains or even a few flakes if a steadier burst comes down. 

Yeah impressive. The city cam (I think it’s like 400’?) is iced over lol. 

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