OceanStWx Posted April 14, 2018 Share Posted April 14, 2018 3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Where’s the door now? Pike? I think the true door is farther north still. Temps are still rising in southern NH, but starting to drop in western ME and northern NH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted April 14, 2018 Share Posted April 14, 2018 5 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: I think the true door is farther north still. Temps are still rising in southern NH, but starting to drop in western ME and northern NH. Iowa's getting smoked KAEL 08:35NE 26 G 70 Thunderstorm Light Snow and WindyOVC0153027 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted April 14, 2018 Share Posted April 14, 2018 2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Iowa's getting smoked Always fun to see the +? (heavy unknown precip) show up on AWIPS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted April 14, 2018 Share Posted April 14, 2018 21 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: How's your morning, beautiful here awt Out on the porch in 70F in N NJ. Drive back into the freezing weather tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted April 14, 2018 Share Posted April 14, 2018 Front passed through here about 45 minutes ago. Temp has fallen about 5F in the past hour. Dark skies, brisk north wind down to 37.8F. Those models show the stripe of snow just north of me. Only got up to 52F here yesterday... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted April 14, 2018 Share Posted April 14, 2018 Enjoyed a long walk with the pooch. My property is snow free as of today. I can’t recall if I lost all piles in the Feb torch but we had some yesterday. Peepers peeping, things greening up. In a few hours it will be just a dream Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted April 14, 2018 Share Posted April 14, 2018 Perhaps the nicest day of the year so far on tap here. But man do I feel for the marathoners Monday. Yowch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted April 14, 2018 Share Posted April 14, 2018 19 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Out on the porch in 70F in N NJ. Drive back into the freezing weather tomorrow. Nice dude. Amazing blizzard out in the Midwest, someday I want to experience one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted April 14, 2018 Share Posted April 14, 2018 40 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: I think the true door is farther north still. Temps are still rising in southern NH, but starting to drop in western ME and northern NH. It's been a "double boundary event" in now-cast since yesterday, yeah. In fact, the two may coalesce ..and the one that's presently aligning through CT/RI then goes from stationary to angrily cutting SSW later on. Though the model resolution doesn't really show that discretely in the various products, there was a "hesitation" hinted that aligned through SNE, a behavior in the charts that lasted at least through 18z... I think we're in that sort of 'neutral zone' between. It would not surprise me if the light to almost calm winds get an subtle flag wobbling acceleration as the vestigial northern boundary passes through here over the next four to five hours. Something like that ... when that pulse catches up with the stationary boundary it becomes a boundary with pretty blue arrow on it... B pressure is nearly stationary here ... probably in wait. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted April 14, 2018 Share Posted April 14, 2018 I think the models are finally starting to pick up on the warm layer a bit more. 12z early NAM and 3KM WRF both showing more sleet now finally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted April 14, 2018 Share Posted April 14, 2018 There is full sun over The County and Quebec and temps are falling in mid April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted April 14, 2018 Share Posted April 14, 2018 46 minutes ago, powderfreak said: I think the models are finally starting to pick up on the warm layer a bit more. 12z early NAM and 3KM WRF both showing more sleet now finally. GFS crushes you. I think that warm layer washes out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted April 14, 2018 Share Posted April 14, 2018 Expect a I am surprised post by PF Sunday night. Total crush job Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted April 14, 2018 Share Posted April 14, 2018 5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Expect a I am surprised post by PF Sunday night. Total crush job If the GFS is right... I'll be surprised by anything above 3-5". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted April 14, 2018 Share Posted April 14, 2018 5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Expect a I am surprised post by PF Sunday night. Total crush job I'm not sold. The cold is impressive, but more often than not the NAM wins on the thermal profiles. The GFS can be overly optimistic on the cold aloft and warmth at the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted April 14, 2018 Share Posted April 14, 2018 Man EWR 78, ABE 81 Must be nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted April 14, 2018 Share Posted April 14, 2018 2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Man EWR 78, ABE 81 Must be nice. Yes it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted April 14, 2018 Share Posted April 14, 2018 17 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: I'm not sold. The cold is impressive, but more often than not the NAM wins on the thermal profiles. The GFS can be overly optimistic on the cold aloft and warmth at the surface. Yeah that's where I'm at. 2" of IP on April 15th would still be interesting if it has to be this cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted April 14, 2018 Share Posted April 14, 2018 2 hours ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Enjoyed a long walk with the pooch. My property is snow free as of today. I can’t recall if I lost all piles in the Feb torch but we had some yesterday. Peepers peeping, things greening up. In a few hours it will be just a dream Went up wawa and Saw bit of snow in woods( yesterday). Some ice on trails above 1800' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted April 14, 2018 Share Posted April 14, 2018 59f inTyngsboro. warmer than we thought and guidance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 14, 2018 Share Posted April 14, 2018 Man we lucked out and grabbed a few extra hours of warmth today. Outside absolutely naping right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted April 14, 2018 Share Posted April 14, 2018 7 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Yeah that's where I'm at. 2" of IP on April 15th would still be interesting if it has to be this cold. Raob 850 temps this morning showed that both the GFS and NAM were too cold across CYMW and at CAR. I think maybe more importantly ALB was +10 already, and the GFS was a full 4 degrees too cold, while the NAM was closer at +9. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted April 14, 2018 Share Posted April 14, 2018 1 hour ago, powderfreak said: I think the models are finally starting to pick up on the warm layer a bit more. 12z early NAM and 3KM WRF both showing more sleet now finally. ... and overall... I mean the NAM down this way is still horrible ...miserable... all that, but not "quite" as horrible as previous edginess - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted April 14, 2018 Share Posted April 14, 2018 Not sure if the front slipped through here....51.4* off of 52.5* 10 minutes ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted April 14, 2018 Share Posted April 14, 2018 65 here 49 Boston glad we don't live there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted April 14, 2018 Share Posted April 14, 2018 1 hour ago, OceanStWx said: I'm not sold. The cold is impressive, but more often than not the NAM wins on the thermal profiles. The GFS can be overly optimistic on the cold aloft and warmth at the surface. Time for a IPA bet? 4 pack of your choice Stake gets 8 plus by Monday night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted April 14, 2018 Share Posted April 14, 2018 NAM tries to spare the runners some... This run shows pre warm frontal conduction moderating the temps toward 40 by dawn in Boston ... Proooobably a bit delayed in the interior (duh) but even down S near Hopkington/Rt 135 ... they may make the 40 and be rising by race start looking at these numbers. It should be 50 everywhere along the Pike by noon although drilling rain for everyone isn't a huge bargain... It's going to be miserable but the quota of threat to health and safety seems reducing a little in this model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted April 14, 2018 Share Posted April 14, 2018 Sunny and 68F here. Looks like the cold front is at the VT/MA line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted April 14, 2018 Share Posted April 14, 2018 7 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Time for a IPA bet? 4 pack of your choice Stake gets 8 plus by Monday night I'm tempted to take it because it gives me a chance to get some good CT stuff. Ha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted April 14, 2018 Share Posted April 14, 2018 I actually like the mountains' chances better once the profile mixes out a bit later Monday in the warm conveyor. If that can turn into a pure elevation snowfall event (i.e. no warm layer aloft) then I could see some decent accumulations. I just have a hard time seeing the profile remaining favorable enough overnight into early tomorrow for appreciable accumulations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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