jbenedet Posted April 13, 2018 Share Posted April 13, 2018 Geeze, what a look on the 12z EPS. Still would be predominately frozen subforum wide at 12z Monday with SLP over DC and 1041 mb hp 300 miles north of Caribou ME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolMike Posted April 13, 2018 Share Posted April 13, 2018 18z Nam comming in warmer than 12z for central VT on North. I'm hoping for decent snow storm for the Killington to Stowe corridor - even though I can't ski right now with a newborn at home. Its like rooting for the old home team even though you can't watch any of the games. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted April 13, 2018 Share Posted April 13, 2018 3 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: Agreed on the difficulty of measuring...it should probably just be the max accumulation on the surface. In the 2008 ice storm, we had unusually high winds for an icing event. So the ice actually became deformed at times...the below picture I took shows the phenomenon...you can certainly tell which direction the wind was blowing: Reminiscent pic, though I have to go back an extra 10 years. One of the 2 weirdest sights I encountered in that 1998 event was something similar. (The 2nd was a utility pole with a major curve due to a side-road line extending from it - pole soon was in 3 pieces.) A long length of phone cable had 4-5" icecicles lined up like soldiers, not uncommon in ice storms, but pole breakage had caused the cable to twist about 70 degrees so additional growth produced "hockey sticks." By the time we saw it, another twist had created high-sticking. (And I never snapped a pic during that storm - booooo.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted April 13, 2018 Share Posted April 13, 2018 2 hours ago, ariof said: Uhm Boston 2015, 45˚, headwind, rain. 3:00:07, 3000th overall Boston 2016, 70˚, headwind, sunny. 3:03:05, 1800th overall I just don't think this is true. Also, data. I for one am excited about it not being 70˚ on Monday. (Sorry this is getting banter-y. the EC looks downright frigid.) Boston got 0.61" on race day in 2015. from this distance, it looks like they might get 2-3 times that much Monday, with the heaviest coming with runners on the course. Might make a difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted April 13, 2018 Share Posted April 13, 2018 2 hours ago, Ginx snewx said: Those H7 temps are similar to the NAM. My hunch is that 750-800 is +2 to +3C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted April 13, 2018 Share Posted April 13, 2018 Take a look at 3k Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted April 13, 2018 Share Posted April 13, 2018 Plym St weenie CAD model not letting me down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted April 13, 2018 Share Posted April 13, 2018 2 minutes ago, dendrite said: Plym St weenie CAD model not letting me down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted April 13, 2018 Share Posted April 13, 2018 3 minutes ago, ma blizzard said: You know you have a good wedgie when 900mb temps are colder than 500mb in spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted April 13, 2018 Share Posted April 13, 2018 That's some storm in the Midwest with a wide area of blizzard warnings and tornado watches basically right next door to each other. Some of those forecast zones have a blizzard warning and severe thunderstorm watch issued for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 13, 2018 Share Posted April 13, 2018 5 minutes ago, snowman21 said: That's some storm in the Midwest with a wide area of blizzard warnings and tornado watches basically right next door to each other. Some of those forecast zones have a blizzard warning and severe thunderstorm watch issued for them. There was a cell in Minnesota earlier that produced a lot of hail and a wind gust near 80 mph... with temps in the mid 30s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted April 13, 2018 Share Posted April 13, 2018 Thread the needle on the 18z 3km NAM. Thread the needle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted April 13, 2018 Share Posted April 13, 2018 RGEM on board too... would be fun to end the season with even 3-6" of snow and sleet on April 14-15. Oh how we pray this has a clue. 2" of QPF on Mansfield this weekend... with these temps, yikes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 13, 2018 Share Posted April 13, 2018 Pretty much have to forecast icestorm interior elevated SNE Sunday night based on all guidance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted April 14, 2018 Share Posted April 14, 2018 1 hour ago, powderfreak said: RGEM on board too... would be fun to end the season with even 3-6" of snow and sleet on April 14-15. Oh how we pray this has a clue. 2" of QPF on Mansfield this weekend... with these temps, yikes. Crush Job incoming. 89 N Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted April 14, 2018 Share Posted April 14, 2018 3 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Crush Job incoming. 89 N My thoughts are I'm not buying the bigger snow idea (warning criteria) because I think there's going to be a stout mid-level warm layer. Low level cold is no concern, the 925mb temps are frigid in the midst of it. But it's the 750-800mb level that's worrisome. I could see a lot more sleet being realized than the p-type products have. The moisture seems like it'll be there, though. No QPF issues on any model. Enough QPF that we should accumulate sleet up to a couple inches even if it never goes to snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrianW Posted April 14, 2018 Share Posted April 14, 2018 Quote [Record cold Likely Sunday] Latest data suggests that record cold high temperatures are likely on Sunday. Many areas may struggle to get much higher than the middle 30s! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scoob40 Posted April 14, 2018 Share Posted April 14, 2018 41 minutes ago, BrianW said: [Record cold Likely Sunday] Latest data suggests that record cold high temperatures are likely on Sunday. Many areas may struggle to get much higher than the middle 30s! Might there be a couple of Dendrite's patented cheap midnight high's in Hartford and possibly ORH spoiling the party ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted April 14, 2018 Share Posted April 14, 2018 Think a plains blizzard with 70 mph just got added to the bucket list. I know Legro has experienced one, anyone else? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted April 14, 2018 Share Posted April 14, 2018 24 minutes ago, scoob40 said: Might there be a couple of Dendrite's patented cheap midnight high's in Hartford and possibly ORH spoiling the party ? WU has it at 41F here at midnight on Saturday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted April 14, 2018 Share Posted April 14, 2018 3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Think a plains blizzard with 70 mph just got added to the bucket list. I know Legro has experienced one, anyone else? I have skiing in Colorado in the 80's, but I don't remember exactly when it was. We got caught in an April blizzard trying to fly home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ariof Posted April 14, 2018 Share Posted April 14, 2018 13 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Think a plains blizzard with 70 mph just got added to the bucket list. I know Legro has experienced one, anyone else? I drove across Nebraska in a blizzard once. 30 mph for 6 hours, no plows, lots of cars in ditches. Can't remember how windy it was but it certainly wasn't calm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted April 14, 2018 Share Posted April 14, 2018 2 hours ago, powderfreak said: My thoughts are I'm not buying the bigger snow idea (warning criteria) because I think there's going to be a stout mid-level warm layer. Low level cold is no concern, the 925mb temps are frigid in the midst of it. But it's the 750-800mb level that's worrisome. I could see a lot more sleet being realized than the p-type products have. The moisture seems like it'll be there, though. No QPF issues on any model. Enough QPF that we should accumulate sleet up to a couple inches even if it never goes to snow. I'm in the same boat. But I wonder what kind of precip do I/ you experience. Seems unique with this ribbon of over-running precip and where exactly it sets up. Looks like the warm layer is around 750. Let's say it warms up to 33 but only for a 1000' vertical does that mean sleet, or re-frozen mangled flakes? Either way it's going to be frozen when it hits 3500', right? How's it going to ski? Looking to chase between here (Waterville) and Jay Peak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted April 14, 2018 Share Posted April 14, 2018 Precipitation changed to light snow above 2,500ft per the grooming team around 4am and now at 6am we've got a mix of -SNPL down here at the office. Temps plummeting, now down to 32F at 1,500ft and 27F at 3,600ft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 14, 2018 Share Posted April 14, 2018 Seems like ORH hills will be below 32, but guidance is still questionable in lower el of ern MA it seems. I wonder of it's precip dependent. Precip would wetbulb it down to below 32. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted April 14, 2018 Share Posted April 14, 2018 9 hours ago, scoob40 said: Might there be a couple of Dendrite's patented cheap midnight high's in Hartford and possibly ORH spoiling the party ? Highs will def be midnight but I'm not sure they will be warm enough to ruin the party. Pretty much all guidance has 30s by midnight but a delay of 3-4 hours could cost the records I suppose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted April 14, 2018 Share Posted April 14, 2018 CON record is 36° in 1893. Seeya. Latest subfreezing high is 30° on 4/12/1874. Latest max in the 20s is 4/9/1997 and 4/9/1974. All are doable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 14, 2018 Share Posted April 14, 2018 May 12? Were they using Kevin's thermometer? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted April 14, 2018 Share Posted April 14, 2018 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: May 12? Were they using Kevin's thermometer? lol...fixed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted April 14, 2018 Share Posted April 14, 2018 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: May 12? Were they using Kevin's thermometer? They prob used a ginxy Dead Sea scroll thermometer. "Ice floes on thy banks of Centre Harbor" so they said it didn't get above freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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