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Napril Fools? Pattern and Model Discussion . . .

HimoorWx

By HimoorWx,
in New England

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

NAM still is chilly Saturday. 

Bruce Willis caution flag for going torch on Saturday....You can see that ugly front ripping through overnight Friday night into early Saturday. Hopefully it doesn't, but we've seen it so many times before when the Euro and GFS are trying to have us in banana hammocks and then they cave once inside 36-48 hours.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

well... in any case... after scanning over the bevy of operational model types out there, there's semblance there of (finally) capitulating to the ensuing warm season. 

The CMC has a smattering of days where CAA is only back to +1 C and rebounds higher ... and as Scott has pointed out few times, 0 C doesn't mean chilly at the surface at this time of year with big ole sol eye balling the hemisphere like the emitter of a microwave oven...  Meanwhile, D9 on the Euro actually has a really interesting look there in the M/A.. It actually has a bit of a SW heat release there...D8 shows 20 C or hotter stuff ejecting out of the SW through west TX and this air plume gets pinched off an sails quickly east and passes near the VA Capes the next day. 

regardless of verification scores, that's not happening in the same sort of scenarios/causes for recent belated seasonal change so I'd say it's a step in the direction that the people reading this that frequent/hobby this social media really and truly want to see happen: no snow and heat.   

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Bruce Willis caution flag for going torch on Saturday....You can see that ugly front ripping through overnight Friday night into early Saturday. Hopefully it doesn't, but we've seen it so many times before when the Euro and GFS are trying to have us in banana hammocks and then they cave once inside 36-48 hours.

I know it's the NAM...but given climo and its ability to sniff these out, I don't think the solution is a stretch at all. At the most, I'm thinking probably not much more than late morning warmth before we go back the other way. 

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

well... in any case... after scanning over the bevy of operational model types out there, there's semblance there of (finally) capitulating to the ensuing warm season. 

The CMC has a smattering of days where CAA is only back to +1 C and rebounds higher ... and as Scott has pointed out few times, 0 C doesn't mean chilly at the surface at this time of year with big ole sol eye balling the hemisphere like the emitter of a microwave oven...  Meanwhile, D9 on the Euro actually has a really interesting look there in the M/A.. It actually has a bit of a SW heat release there...D8 shows 20 C or hotter stuff ejecting out of the SW through west TX and this air plume gets pinched off an sails quickly east and passes near the VA Capes the next day. 

regardless of verification scores, that's not happening in the same sort of scenarios/causes for recent belated seasonal change so I'd say it's a step in the direction that the people reading this that frequent/hobby this social media really and truly want to see happen: no snow and heat.   

Sun is a great thing this time of year. You can push 60 with 540 thicknesses easily.  However, we are seeing a tendency to have higher heights over the Davis Straits. Not the most exciting for warmth lol. The EPS and GEFS both show this. Also, seems like we are seeing some sort of Oceanic Kelvin wave hustle in warm waters pass the dateline. If that is the case, Nina may be on life support.

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
Posted
On 4/9/2018 at 6:31 AM, Damage In Tolland said:

Although I guess I couid see Sat am warm quickly. But we know how these work . What looks like a few days ends up less. Suddenly 1 NAM run ends things much earlier and everyone hoping for 77-82 ends up losing screen doors and looking at flags pinned NE to SW

Here it is from days ago..AWT

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

Yeah, the higher resolution models might have a better handle on the BL stuff with that boundary on Saturday... they may not.

The best way to bust the cold appeal (which I'm not even sure a lot of users really want despite their protestations...) would be to have the larger scale not handled well, and have the higher pressure pattern back off some over N and NE New England...

Otherwise, as I also mentioned a bit ago, if higher pressure oozes around the geographical dam of the Berks/Greens/Whites, and slips into D.E.M it's GOING TO ROLL SW. It always always does and is physically instructed to do so because of counter flow and conduit venting phenomenon that happens on the lee side of the mountain range.   So, prevent the high from bending around the topography and/or do so less therein, thus preventing it from stacking higher PP over the coastal plain NE of us... that's pretty much the only way to stop it. 

I am not sure the global models actually 'model' that sort of land to air endemic property of interaction that we have here.  That's why these global tools often slip warm boundaries up to CON and just allow them to set there sometimes. The Euro is supposedly a finer meshed model so ...it did back off slightly last night...  But it's precarious at best.  

I'd say almost to the point of being regardless what the models say ... if +PP ends up N/NE of Logan on Saturday, said air mass is destined for the Delmarva by Sunday morning. 

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Sun is a great thing this time of year. You can push 60 with 540 thicknesses easily.  However, we are seeing a tendency to have higher heights over the Davis Straits. Not the most exciting for warmth lol. The EPS and GEFS both show this. Also, seems like we are seeing some sort of Oceanic Kelvin wave hustle in warm waters pass the dateline. If that is the case, Nina may be on life support.

OH yeah... the models may be doing one thing... but, if the NAO/blocking tendencies over all don't cooperate, we could go ahead a steal half of summer and give it back to what though ? 

I mean, if folks that loathe summer (privately) want that, than at least someone would be happy in this mess.  Ha. 

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mreaves

mreaves

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Hats off to you guys for hanging in there; eyes peeled to the cobalt blue glass window waiting intently to see whether it will be 63 of 51F.

Time for sports.

To be fair though that 12° difference is pretty big and I would much rather have the 63°

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Hats off to you guys for hanging in there; eyes peeled to the cobalt blue glass window waiting intently to see whether it will be 63 of 51F.

Time for sports.

Yeah...well, people engage in this "sport" for different reasons ...whatever their agenda may be. There is going to be a variety when opening a forum up to the hoi polloi. 

I wouldn't spite anyone for 'why' they are here - though I used to stupidly try...

But seeing as you offered the sarcasm ... it is till useful to point out that there might just be a contingent of users that are interested in actual Meteorology, a virtue that is probably lost much of the time in here with this particular quorum of return users seeking climate refuge if not a support group - haha. 

Just kidding, but it may be hard for some to connect with Meteorology. It is not about whether one gets their rocks off watching something they sought for, or whatever it is that fills whatever need they have.  As a scientific discipline, there is a quantum scale physical drive just like ...well, everything in reality. Regardless of "weather" one is examining Quasars many light years away, or butterfly wing flaps in a garden in China ... those that engage for the purpose of understanding the world around them, they probably don't share the same opinion that monitoring those aspects are only trivial and/or less important.  

I think if folks just understood that there are those of that ilk among the users, they probably wouldn't feel the necessity to chide, or really care to acknowledge and would just speed bump over those posts and ignore them. 

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
Posted
32 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yeah...well, people engage in this "sport" for different reasons ...whatever their agenda may be. There is going to be a variety when opening a forum up to the hoi polloi. 

I wouldn't spite anyone for 'why' they are here - though I used to stupidly try...

But seeing as you offered the sarcasm ... it is till useful to point out that there might just be a contingent of users that are interested in actual Meteorology, a virtue that is probably lost much of the time in here with this particular quorum of return users seeking climate refuge if not a support group - haha. 

Just kidding, but it may be hard for some to connect with Meteorology. It is not about whether one gets their rocks off watching something they sought for, or whatever it is that fills whatever need they have.  As a scientific discipline, there is a quantum scale physical drive just like ...well, everything in reality. Regardless of "weather" one is examining Quasars many light years away, or butterfly wing flaps in a garden in China ... those that engage for the purpose of understanding the world around them, they probably don't share the same opinion that monitoring those aspects are only trivial and/or less important.  

I think if folks just understood that there are those of that ilk among the users, they probably wouldn't feel the necessity to chide, or really care to acknowledge and would just speed bump over those posts and ignore them. 

No argument....just being sarcastic, as you noted.

I need a break bc I'm so intensely engaged from October through March.

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ma blizzard

ma blizzard

Posted
Posted

EURO was a tic warmer Sunday than the 0z run .. also takes longer for the front to come thru Sat afternoon which makes 2 consecutive runs trending in this direction. 

Don't think I'm buying the delayed bdcf passage, especially east of ORH to PVD. Kinda bummed the magnitude of the low lvl cold air push isn't at strong as the older EURO runs, but was to be expected. Prob a good reason there has never been a legit icing event this late in the season in SNE afaik. 

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Sn0waddict

Sn0waddict

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, ma blizzard said:

EURO was a tic warmer Sunday than the 0z run .. also takes longer for the front to come thru Sat afternoon which makes 2 consecutive runs trending in this direction. 

Don't think I'm buying the delayed bdcf passage, especially east of ORH to PVD. Kinda bummed the magnitude of the low lvl cold air push isn't at strong as the older EURO runs, but was to be expected. Prob a good reason there has never been a legit icing event this late in the season in SNE afaik. 

On Sunday the CMC has SW CT comfortably in the 60s to near 70 while the icon has temps in the mid-upper 30s lol Both seem like extreme outliers, but even a compromise (kinda like what the euro is showing) wouldn’t be terrible. 

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah bring back those snowy SNE winters of ol'.... oh wait :lol:.

Does it really matter at this point?  <sarcasm>

I'd say it was a decent winter region wide this year. Feb sucked overall, but I think as a whole, the region did well. The Cape kind of got porked a bit. I suppose BTV area was only a bit above. 

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weathafella

weathafella

Posted
Posted
51 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I'd say it was a decent winter region wide this year. Feb sucked overall, but I think as a whole, the region did well. The Cape kind of got porked a bit. I suppose BTV area was only a bit above. 

Fuk the cape-just fukkem 

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

I'd say it was a decent winter region wide this year. Feb sucked overall, but I think as a whole, the region did well. The Cape kind of got porked a bit. I suppose BTV area was only a bit above. 

It was nice to have December back as a real winter month in the interior...I ran the table with snow cover for the month after Dec 9th save very briefly before the 12/23 ice storm when it got down to patchy cover...but we then get on a front end thump of an inch before the ice encased it all.

 

I was all set with the banana hammock December of recent years (Dec 2016 actually wasn't bad, but more frustrating than anything...could've been so much better)

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
20 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

It was nice to have December back as a real winter month in the interior...I ran the table with snow cover for the month after Dec 9th save very briefly before the 12/23 ice storm when it got down to patchy cover...but we then get on a front end thump of an inch before the ice encased it all.

 

I was all set with the banana hammock December of recent years (Dec 2016 actually wasn't bad, but more frustrating than anything...could've been so much better)

Was a bit tougher here pack wise with 2" OTG during that epic cold spell prior to Jan 4. But March wise nice to have snow OTG for a large portion of that month. 

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

I'd say it was a decent winter region wide this year. Feb sucked overall, but I think as a whole, the region did well. The Cape kind of got porked a bit. I suppose BTV area was only a bit above. 

Oh yeah I wasn't really looking at it from that angle, just that the highest above normal was probably in SNE and it's funny, with only like 4-5 below normal snow winters for a bunch of SNE since like 2000... it would have to take one awful looking winter pattern to actually forecast below normal snowfall going forward.

Just when you think about it, probably lean snowier in a seasonal outlook when in doubt.  

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