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Napril Fools? Pattern and Model Discussion . . .

HimoorWx

By HimoorWx,
in New England

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

There may be some undue expectations as to what the evolution of spring and warmth should be by/as of April 9. 

You know ... in 2005 or 2006 we had a snow storm with blowing snow off roofs around this late in the year ...may have been a week earlier. But, having biting annoyance in spring is not so unheard off when expanding one's attention beyond just the last 5 years - not saying that's any one person in particular, but... as humans it's hard not to be conditioned by recent experiences, and I think we've averaged more decent Aprils than the normal bag of crapitude we tote at this time of year.  When peering back at 100 Aprils and more... mmm  

Granted .. April is running some 4 to 6 negative at the four major climatology sites down here in SNE proper, but, we're not even 10 days in the books yet and anyone that would base a whole season on 10 days of departures around this latitude and longitude really isn't lucid and shouldn't be involved. 

By the way folks, the MEX has KBED 72 and 71 Sat and Sun respectively..  Not sure, but I think that MOS product is based upon the GFSX - ... check that, but, MOS would certainly not be portraying numbers like that, at this time of year in particular, if there were a BD rollin' through NYC at the time. Particularly also in that the machine guidance is heavily sloped toward climo at five and six days out..  So, as unrealistic as it may be that two days back to back are 10 to 13 F over climate at D 5/6 (therefore, the signal in whatever the source is probably even higher than that) in April, at least there's hope :)  Until there are large scale structural changes in the circulation medium over SE Canada (such as was hinted yesterday ..) that stick, the odds are against those numbers. 

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wxeyeNH

wxeyeNH

Posted
Posted

I post this almost every year around this time. 

April 6/7 1982.  Noreaster moves up coast on April 6th.  Blizzard Warnings for Boston.  14" falls on the 6th.  Temps start in the upper 20's and as snow begins late morning temps fall all afternoon with heavy snow and blowing snow.  By evening its in the low 20's.   Logan records 19F on the morning of the l 7th with flurries and blowing snow all day.  High according to my records was in the low 20's.  By April 8th under sunshine temps warm to the upper 30's.   Very impressive mid-winter type storm for so late in the season.

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, weathafella said:

As depicted your location wouldn’t help.  Of course not surprisingly GFS backed off.

Many a spring day I haved watch Fenway fans all bundled up, while I sip Jamieson and cokes on the deck in my shorts, looking NE at a cloud bank that never comes. Euro say yep bundle up Boston

index.png

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, weathafella said:

As depicted your location wouldn’t help.  Of course not surprisingly GFS backed off.

If only we could all live in the spring mecca immune from BDFs known as the CT/RI border.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, ma blizzard said:

Is there any precedent for icing this late in the year? 

Not that I can recall from anything personally or in the records. There's been some icing in the first few days of April, but this would be like 4/15-16.

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dryslot

dryslot

Posted
Posted
34 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Many a spring day I haved watch Fenway fans all bundled up, while I sip Jamieson and cokes on the deck in my shorts, looking NE at a cloud bank that never comes. Euro say yep bundle up Boston

index.png

That will be me on Saturday.

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, dryslot said:

That will be me on Saturday.

Probably a beautiful day with an afternoon seabreeze, happens all the time. When I was growing up we would be in the 50s at the beach and all these inland folks would come flocking down because it was 80 inland. Spring is best at the lakes mid summer the beach

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dryslot

dryslot

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

Probably a beautiful day with an afternoon seabreeze, happens all the time. When I was growing up we would be in the 50s at the beach and all these inland folks would come flocking down because it was 80 inland. Spring is best at the lakes mid summer the beach

Staying in Burlington MA, Leave the hotel in high 70's get to the Fen in low 50's, Perfect!

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

There's been icing in Aprils before... I think it takes some pretty special circumstances to get that to happen... namely one such is an easy mark - needs to happen at night.  If that is matched, I don't see why it can't glaze above the ground.. much in the way marginal temperatures will fail to stick snow to the streets even at night at this time of year, due to the fact that concrete/asphalt materials retain heat very proficiently ... A 31.5 F light ZR probably does not manufacture much issue on roads ...save perhaps steel-girded overpasses.  

For morbid fascination...and bragging rights, how could anyone not want to witness an ice storm after a 75 F afternoon. That's like November 20th out in southern Iowa type climo there... and in April .. like not in Iowa..  wow what a cluster f this spring is...particularly in the models. For some of y'all newbies you should go google Blue Norther'  ...man, we have our a whiplash BD events of notable lore, but some of the truly most spectacular short duration changes can happen out there in the Plains... I've heard of 80 F down to 19 ...in side of a 1/2 hour in extreme cases. 

So... yeah, still 5 and 6 days out ..plenty of time for that to correct.  Recall, just yesterday, the models backed off the cold wedging and blocking up N ... so there's some questionable stability in that look over next weekend.  

It's an ironic correction necessity in my mind...  If the blocking is correctly handled, the Saturday warmth may likely fail anyway.. .and the models are wrong about the warmth intrusion clear to Manchester NH prior to the BD...  I hate to say, the CMC not having the boundary that far N to begin with is probably a better fit for this argument ...to mention climate too.  IF (though fleeting is the chance) the blocking is wrong and something more normalized like yesterday's run return, then we can entertain a warmer complexion ...but even then, a shallower BD is probably in the cards at least down to Rt 2 in Mass.  It's hard to arc a warm boundary up through the eastern Lakes region without the eastern end slumping back SW

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weathafella

weathafella

Posted
Posted
19 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

wow that must have felt great for those runners

It actually did for those who made it through the heat!  Anything over 60 is trouble potentially but 30s/40s and wet is awful.  I remember running one with hot training conds all winter and spring in Southern California 1988.  I nearly croaked in the middle of a 17 miler with temperatures 90+ by 9am.  Race day was easy-chilly and windy.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said:

Many a spring day I haved watch Fenway fans all bundled up, while I sip Jamieson and cokes on the deck in my shorts, looking NE at a cloud bank that never comes. Euro say yep bundle up Boston

index.png

I can't see up here but that looks terrible.

Thats a 40 degree gradient from RUT to CEF.  Ugh.  

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted
14 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

There's been icing in Aprils before... I think it takes some pretty special circumstances to get that to happen... namely one such is an easy mark - needs to happen at night.  If that is matched, I don't see why it can't glaze above the ground.. much in the way marginal temperatures will fail to stick snow to the streets even at night at this time of year, due to the fact that concrete/asphalt materials retain heat very proficiently ... A 31.5 F light ZR probably does not manufacture much issue on roads ...save perhaps steel-girded overpasses.  

For morbid fascination...and bragging rights, how could anyone not want to witness an ice storm after a 75 F afternoon. That's like November 20th out in southern Iowa type climo there... and in April .. like not in Iowa..  wow what a cluster f this spring is...particularly in the models. For some of y'all newbies you should go google Blue Norther'  ...man, we have our a whiplash BD events of notable lore, but some of the truly most spectacular short duration changes can happen out there in the Plains... I've heard of 80 F down to 19 ...in side of a 1/2 hour in extreme cases. 

Big April ice storm in 2003 around this time of the month... we had over a half inch of ice in the ALB area and lost power, all happening during the day too.  I think some spots approached an inch of ice. GFL-RUT latitude had 12-24" snow.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Big April ice storm in 2003 around this time of the month... we had over a half inch of ice in the ALB area and lost power, all happening during the day too.  I think some spots approached an inch of ice. GFL-RUT latitude had 12-24" snow.

The 2003 ice storm was pretty crazy, but it was the first week of April, like Apr 3-5th...so something in the 4/15-4/16 range would be pretty unprecedented for non-mountainous elevations. There was a pretty big one around 4/10 in 2013 I recall out in the plains, but that is a little easier to achieve out there than our region.

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beavis1729

beavis1729

Posted
Posted

Poking in from the Midwest...this pattern is definitely anomalous.

Michigan may have set their all-time April low temp record by 7 degrees (unofficially -24 at Stambaugh COOP on 4/8/18).  If it holds, it would be a departure of nearly -50. Places in the Upper Peninsula still have 3 feet of snow cover. 

DLH and INL are up to 165 consecutive days with at least a Trace of snow cover...and the streak should continue for at least 5 more days.

Makes you wonder what it would have been like had the SSW event occurred 4-6 weeks earlier...

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tamarack

tamarack

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Big April ice storm in 2003 around this time of the month... we had over a half inch of ice in the ALB area and lost power, all happening during the day too.  I think some spots approached an inch of ice. GFL-RUT latitude had 12-24" snow.

I suspect it was in the 4-6 period - we had highs of 29/24/34 those days, with SN- able to accumulate through the daytime on the 5th.  From then on the month was mainly 50s and 60s except for a couple dry cold days 17th-18th.

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