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Napril Fools? Pattern and Model Discussion . . .

HimoorWx

By HimoorWx,
in New England

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted
52 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

the drop in averages will come when the DC climate reaches you... which is decades away

...There is the 'threshold' hypothesis,' too.  Which basically amounts to crossing some physical limit in nature where the domain space under observation suddenly 'leaps' more deeply into the new paradigm.

That idea is not without precedence ..therefore, has merit.  The climate 'band' could inch north, perhaps giving a faux impression of rate of change; then, suddenly over a single intra decadal time span NYC is washing in sweat like Washington DC like ... crap, when the f did that happen. 

One can draft up sci-fi concepts where various environmental physical processes compensate for stresses on the given system. Which for a time ...masks and/or damps the significance of those stresses, until rather abruptly ...the compensators fail..  'Boing ..ng' said changes surge when those masking influences collapse. 

I mean I realize I'm preaching to the quire and you were probably being tongue-in-cheekiness there.. But, one such offset isn't even really a systemic compensator, too.  Solar! 

The average Gaussian strength during solar maxes has been dropping since the 1980s.  It may be part of the 300 year cycle, too, that is supposedly super-imposing in time with both the 11 and 22-year periodicity. I dunno ..solar's not my expertise. I do think the super-position of the AMO and PDO curves nearly lining up perfectly with the solar curve as being pretty darn telling nonetheless. 

Supposedly the sun's mag field strength was also notably less during the Maunder Minimum... That makes for a fantastic question should history be a learn-able tool,  as in, how a Maunder min climate signal would co-exist with an AGW rampaging and apparently on a curve that's accelerating.

It's almost like a race to get off the tracks to avoid the train of environmental collapse... we're like on t-minus circa six decades and then times up. Sun comes back to glory with no other compensators in play and forget DCA at BOS... it'll be up there in western NF... And, hopefully, as a specia technological genome we will have advanced the body of knowledge to include untangling Quantum entanglement, such that travel faster than the speed of light no longer has to rely upon ...rather, be limited by, conventional Einsteinian mathematical definitions of the Cosmos.    

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dendrite

dendrite

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, Hazey said:

Nice warm up next weekend on the 12z euro. Probably 60’s at least verbatim. Back door be damned.

 

Cool shot after though.

Looks like at least 1 BD day in there when that sfc high noses on in. It's a much warmer look at H85, but that's a tight gradient over NNE.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted
10 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Looks like at least 1 BD day in there when that sfc high noses on in. It's a much warmer look at H85, but that's a tight gradient over NNE.

Yeah...the Euro's trended warmer over all, since last night.  This run rather uncharacteristically for April, suspends the BD around PSM on Friday...allowing that day to surge into the upper 70s given that look.

I mean, +12 to +14C with at least 50 % ceiling contamination assuming... If the front hangs up there against the odds...and the skies are > 70% we make the 80s with that mixed look down this way.  Where you are ...heh, you're on the N side... But again, I think the trend may be telling...

The ridge in the east is much more robust looking over all and frankly, the NAO being positive does allow for corrections N.  We'll see.

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forkyfork

forkyfork

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yeah...the Euro's trended warmer over all, since last night.  This run rather uncharacteristically for April, suspends the BD around PSM on Friday...allowing that day to surge into the upper 70s given that look.

I mean, +12 to +14C with at least 50 % ceiling contamination assuming... If the front hangs up there against the odds...and the skies are > 70% we make the 80s with that mixed look down this way.  Where you are ...heh, you're on the N side... But again, I think the trend may be telling...

The ridge in the east is much more robust looking over all and frankly, the NAO being positive does allow for corrections N.  We'll see.

the euro has a bias with intense SE canadian upper lows. you've noticed it before

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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18 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

As much as you’d like today’s run to verify.. it’s Napril, NAO is going neg, it’s SNE, and these always are modeled every spring to stay north and then a NAM run suddenly has the door down to C NJ one run . You know where this is going unfortunately 

Oh, nobody's casting any illusions as to what's "likely" to happen over next weekend re the position of any BD front in f'um April my friend.

And yes...I admit... I'd like that to verify,.. .in fact, I'd like the ridge to get even more robust and go summer on their asses...  That said, I posted a warning my self last page about the models attempting to beguile us into thinking the warm front won't have to pay any taxes - believe me!  the cinema of the Euro look is kept in check. 

And Forky's right though - the Euro does have a depth bias over SE Canada that as far as I can tell has not been corrected for ...but it's a factor/bias that probably slips the attention of a lot of users in this particular social media because frankly .. in the winter that services the desires and probably thus lesser critically noticed.  

The irony is...it could be wrong, and we could still BD... It's April - you know...  April is like the last laugh of old man winter that's written the bastard son out of the will as it's dying -

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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In any case ... it's a day ...day and halfer then that BD brings the reality hammer.  If you guys wanna see a pretty extraordinary 18 hour model evolution...go take a look at the BD on that ICON model ... that's pretty spectacular attempt at resolution of the BD phenomenon for this kind of lead time range.  Amazing really... the model goes so far as to show the pressure discontinuity more than merely figuratively like a lower troposphere tsunamis wave flooding in from the NE. 

I suppose it is possible ...that trends would continue and continue to back off on that.  We'll see where it goes but again again and again ...climo doesn't like warm sectors winning with Lakes cutters in mid April - that's like a no brainer. The key is going to be filling the mid and u/a trough over SE Canada... if that persists the backside confluence simply won't allow warm to penetrate much NE of PHL without getting crushed back SW...

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MJO812

MJO812

Posted
Posted
10 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Tuesday looks like carbon copy of this past Friday . Snow breaks out in the early morning and moves east. Stays mainly snow inland and can drop 1-2” ish on grassy surfaces 

If only we had a phase

Could have been a big one

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