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Napril Fools? Pattern and Model Discussion . . .

HimoorWx

By HimoorWx,
in New England

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted
33 minutes ago, dendrite said:

People will start pissing and moaning after 2020 when we regress and the new 30yr normals come in with sky high averages. We'll probably end up with 75% of the seasons below normal over the next 20 years just because of the run we've been on.

I've always wondered why "30 years" was determined as some how more significant than 50...  70 or 90 or 100.  I've never really researched 'the history' of NCEP/NOAA in terms of how or why they made that determination, or if even that time span/interval may just be arbitrarily in deference to working with a number set that's 'easy' to work with. Every year we deal with this 'spring begins on March 1' Meteorological distinction, which for our particular region of the planet ..heh, right -

Either way, as you intimated nicely ... if a region succeeds 30 years of bias, that may not parlay very well into the next 30 years, particularly if the background longer term 'real' climate signal starts behaving. Or, much to the possible chagrin of the snow-geese, the opposite takes place thus arithmetically the 60-year lines up with the 300-year average (sort of what you're getting at).  Can you imagine the vitriol the local codependent emotional winter basket cases ...when 30 years of 120 % has to get compared with a new paradigm of only 80% ?   Ho man... that'd seem like half snow forever..

I think, though, that the 30-year means are not islands in time.  I'm preeety sure that they are then compared to one another in local temporal groups... These 2ndary means may in fact then expand to include multiples of 30 ... 90 or 180 and so forth.  I have a vague memory of discussing this with the gang up at UML during undergrad days. I may not have that entirely right but sometimes vague memories are nothing more than a sensible thought one has in passing that's been imprinted in the fabric of veracious theoretics - haha.  

The thing is, there does seem on the surface like there must be some kind of 'intelligent' limitation, in the scientific sensibility, to using very long lengths of time though. I mean, what is the return rate on climate alterable events?  Not only that, some climate altering events are not going to extend their aftermath across 30 year spectra, and may only effectively modulate things even at less than 10 year intervals.  Do we want a magnificent 10-year spike in a given parameter to pull a 100 year mean drastically? 

Early in the 1990s, Mount Pinatubo sent upwards of 17 megaton of sulfur dioxide (significant irradiance inhibitor/aerosol), and a greater than negligible Global cooling was registered in discrete Global temperature statistics for a three to five years afterward. But by 2000 (in theory..) the effects of that eruption had been phased out.  Contrasting, a Maunder Minimum was (I think?) 100 years long and so yeah...you kind of want that one represented.  So there is a bit of time relativity in play ...one that relates to the pragmatics of the statistical usage here.  Interesting.   

 

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

I admit to a bit of obsessing over the question of, 'where is the warmth.'  That focus is occurring in me because I am profoundly ad nauseam out of patience over this boundless cold that is not doing anything other then retarding green-up, as well .. preventing even the early season types of outdoor activities (and I just know there are those minds among us that are secretly coveting moral victory because the very thought of warmth and mirth of summer gives them pause, if not anxiety... )

Although .. hm, I must admit to a deviant sort of pleasure in watching MLB teams along the 40th parallel pull of full-length games in "February" ... 

When I looked over the 00z Euro and noted that it came half way back to the prior warm balm over the eastern conus (those solutions that it abruptly sans about 3.5 day's worth of cycles ago), I was thus very pleased, if perhaps a bit prone to being suckered in...? Upon realizing the latter, not gonna let it happen. 

Here is what's likely to take place this week. The models will engineer reasons to defy climate and beguile us ... then, the BD will swoosh all the way down to the Va Capes, and lop 40 F off the temperature potential of the 850mb ... waiting to do so when the greatest number of intents and purposes are fully on board for a joyful warm up. Which by the way, that front could cleave under the troposphere some hundreds of miles at < than 3,000 foot of elevation... So, whatever these models are attempting to lie about that position, IF there is an kind of arm of high pressure extended to eastern Ontario, while there is even a weak low pressure scooting east of the lower Maritimes ... that front WILL butt bang your weekend plans.  It just not even debatable... yet the models will attempt to fool us all week long.  Anything otherwise is about as likely as the entire judicial sensibility of the human species suddenly disappearing the night before rendoring an observation over Hitler.  

I just believe, in this remarkably protracted tendency to blocking that really is still prevalent in all guidance across the mid/extended ranges ... it would have to take an anomaly against the tapestry of the opposing anomaly ... and that's getting a little less than iffy -

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MJO812

MJO812

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

The BOS average is something like 47 inches right now since 1991...but not sure how the ncdc smoothing will affect it. It's not actually a 30 year arithmetic mean they list. They smooth it out a little and not sure exactly how. 

NYC is also averaging around 30 inches now.

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, dendrite said:

People will start pissing and moaning after 2020 when we regress and the new 30yr normals come in with sky high averages. We'll probably end up with 75% of the seasons below normal over the next 20 years just because of the run we've been on.

Wonder if I will be alive when you guys regression to the mean finally comes to fruition, science minds are always the last to accept change. 

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dendrite

dendrite

Posted
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9 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Tru dat, just got out of the ER. Sciatica,  could not walk. Seems 3 days of logging was a tad too much but it's done. Now to put a new lawn in when I heal, sucks 

Gotta know your limits, but I’d rather be like you than not using it and losing it. 

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MJO812

MJO812

Posted
Posted
30 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Tru dat, just got out of the ER. Sciatica,  could not walk. Seems 3 days of logging was a tad too much but it's done. Now to put a new lawn in when I heal, sucks 

My mom has Sciatica

I had to call the ambulance for her last year because she couldn't get up from the couch. She was in alot of pain.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Lol ,you ok, been pretty sardonic and miserable.  You seem extremely weather dependent mood wise.

Me? I’ve been level headed with everything and It’s  been going the way I thought. Hey I love winter weather, but gotta know when to hold and fold. We fold. Sure maybe a renegade event could happen, but I think it’s time to move on. Been fun. 

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