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Napril Fools? Pattern and Model Discussion . . .

HimoorWx

By HimoorWx,
in New England

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SouthCoastMA

SouthCoastMA

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

#misconceptionsAboutCapeSnow

What some don't take into account are the storms that graze or hammer just the Cape, while it's partly cloudy in CT. To them it's 'if a tree falls in the woods'

No one is saying its a snow mecca..well maybe James..but we give him a pass

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

What some don't take into account are the storms that graze or hammer just the Cape, while it's partly cloudy in CT. To them it's 'if a tree falls in the woods'

No one is saying its a snow mecca..well maybe James..but we give him a pass

 I’m telling you, the days after the January 2005 Blizzard was something I have yet to ever see.  I was in Osterville working for a builder, and it was jaw-dropping. To see snow to second-story windows of schools and back hose with forklifts removing cars off the road was something I won’t forget. 

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Sugarloaf1989

Sugarloaf1989

Posted
Posted
20 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

SNE is so varied....everybody can argue this stuff till the cows come home.  Like PowderFriek said a while back....Everywhere in SNE can do Big Storms well at any given time.  Every place...the shore, inland, West and East, the Cape, the hills, everyone gets a shot at something BIG at some point.  SNE does big storms well like he said.  

Certain valley folks around here may disagree with that statement.

 

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CT Rain

CT Rain

Posted
Posted
14 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I'm an empirical evidence kind of guy...everyone has a biased view of their own backyard. So the empirical evidence is an easy way to reduce the bias. We can't completely remove it since we don't have reliable data for every point in SNE. The empirical evidence though does show that the Cape gets more snow on average than the coast of SW CT. North of the merritt inland a bit? Different story...that area seems to average comfortable in the mid to high 30s (and getting into the low 40s once in the DXR to the hills around Waterbury),. I've been parsing coop data for 15+ years now and even trying to reconstruct bad data, so I've looked at snowfall in SNE probably more than anyone...so I feel pretty comfortable making that general statement.

BDR is also an interesting case. The airport was an absolutely dreadful location for snow - just killed time and time again sticking out into Long Island Sound. Now that they moved the snowfall measurements to the coop observer inland their snowfall totals have increased dramatically and definitely more representative. 

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

What some don't take into account are the storms that graze or hammer just the Cape, while it's partly cloudy in CT. To them it's 'if a tree falls in the woods'

No one is saying its a snow mecca..well maybe James..but we give him a pass

Storms like 12/21/10 and 1/28/08 are classic examples...or even the Mar 2014 blizzard.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, CT Rain said:

Friday does look a bit warmer than Monday. I'm willing to bet a lot of roads are generally OK Friday AM given that we'll be ~32F as opposed to 29/30F as modeled right now. Any thoughts on that?

I could see issues interior MA friday morning...might still be in upper 20s there and the snow burst looks moderate to heavy. Further south the BL def gets warmer, so prob less road issues.

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CT Rain

CT Rain

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

I could see issues interior MA friday morning...might still be in upper 20s there and the snow burst looks moderate to heavy. Further south the BL def gets warmer, so prob less road issues.

Somewhat timing dependent too. How much can we get in here prior to 15z or so?

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CT Rain

CT Rain

Posted
Posted
18 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah no Bruce Willis on that look....as I said before, I wish I could believe it. Maybe we'll see the real models bump north too.

The EPS was pretty bullish/north with Saturday. Had ~50 probs of >6" of snow almost up to I-84. 

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, CT Rain said:

Somewhat timing dependent too. How much can we get in here prior to 15z or so?

Yeah def...if it doesn't really come down until midday, then that will reduce the impact. But if ts already steady snow by 8-9am, then that could be an issue.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
Just now, CT Rain said:

The EPS was pretty bullish/north with Saturday. Had ~50 probs of >6" of snow almost up to I-84. 

Yeah noticed the EPS did look ok...hopefully that is a good sign. I just hate events where we struggle to get good midlevel inflow from the east or southeast....but this one could still do that.

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backedgeapproaching

backedgeapproaching

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, tamarack said:

Depends on one's definition of great.  Norfolk, at 1340' in the NW hills, averages 91", which is 1-2" more than Farmington in the Maine foothills.  In 1955-56 Norfolk had 178", which would be #3 all time at CAR.  In 2/61 their snowpack reached 55".  That all floats my boat for "great".
(And I think those NW hills get more than the NE primarily because they're several hundred feet higher)

My earlier guess for the current storm - half an inch of sleety mush - turned out to be wildly optimistic.  At 7 AM I'd had 0.06" of 33° RA with a few mangled flakes at the start.  Friday now seems to be starving for qpf, Saturday a whiff (though if the grandkids in SNJ get another 3-5" to play in, that's a win), and while Tues-Wed looks good at this distance, by then my avg max is 50 so it's shoveling sand against the tide.  (Though I've got an important forest research meeting in Orono Wednesday, so maybe we will get the snow from that one.   ;)  :weenie:)

Didn't realize they averaged that much there.  But you can see the change to favoring eastern areas, they haven't had a 100" season in 20 years (96-97) Seems like a long stretch to not get to 100" for a place that averages 90". They did get to 100" this year.

They cleaned up in the '50/'60/'70s.  But there recent per decade average is decently lower from the those glory years. The past 30 years its closer to 75-77" it seems like looking at the COOP data.

 

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, backedgeapproaching said:

Didn't realize they averaged that much there.  But you can see the change to favoring eastern areas, they haven't had a 100" season in 20 years (96-97) Seems like a long stretch to not get to 100" for a place that averages 90". They did get to 100" this year.

They cleaned up in the '50/'60/'70s.  But there recent per decade average is decently lower from the those glory years. The past 30 years its closer to 75-77" it seems like looking at the COOP data.

 

I'm not sure how homogeneous the Norfolk data is...it seems they went through a step change in the late 1990s/early 2000s. There's a whole bunch of missing data during that time, and then the data comes back around 2003-2004 and the snow totals are much lower after that. That tells me there is a new observer who doesn't measure religiously like the previous one...or perhaps even a new site where the snowfall is measured (but still close enough to the old one that the coop didn't have to start over).....so I'm kind of skeptical of comparing the newer Norfolk data to the older pre-1999 data.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

Two synoptic schools with these recent NAM runs, re Saturday potential ... well three, but we'll discount the sucking factor for a moment

1 ... the NAM often does this beyond 48 hours with these ANA looks...  I am not sure off the bat what other guidance is or is not in support, but this does smack a bit like that which I have seen on the NAM countless times in the past...  

2 ... though that looks like ANA, it may actually be flat waves closed off ..pearled along the boundary, if perhaps below the standard PP intervals so hidden (so to speak).  Also, there is that convention that ANA is sometimes akin to spread "within the model run itself" as though it were having trouble committing to more "kink" ... metaphor more than anything else.  But it does offer some plausibility that it could spin up more coherently in future runs.  The Euro did have something scooting by.  

 

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JKEisMan

JKEisMan

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I'm not sure how homogeneous the Norfolk data is...it seems they went through a step change in the late 1990s/early 2000s. There's a whole bunch of missing data during that time, and then the data comes back around 2003-2004 and the snow totals are much lower after that. That tells me there is a new observer who doesn't measure religiously like the previous one...or perhaps even a new site where the snowfall is measured (but still close enough to the old one that the coop didn't have to start over).....so I'm kind of skeptical of comparing the newer Norfolk data to the older pre-1999 data.

Interesting read and related info: http://www.greatmountainforest.org/workingforest/weather/history.php

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