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Napril Fools? Pattern and Model Discussion . . .

HimoorWx

By HimoorWx,
in New England

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

But where Easton is...he has beaten both those sights handily lately it seems...again the new averages may be different for SW CT shore..no?

I don't know exactly where he lives or what his totals are the past decade or 15 years...I'm talking the coast of SW CT...not some hilly area north of the merritt. I think most would be surprised how well the Cape has done in the past 15 years...they have two seasons near or over 100 inches of snow.

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Posted
Posted
18 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

But where Easton is...he has beaten both those sights handily lately it seems...again the new averages may be different for SW CT shore..no?

I grew up in Easton and it is 'on the coast' .... kind of. It is in the 'North of the Parkway' zone though that usually notates where the coastal forecasts end and the inland forecast begins. Altitude is also a factor there. I grew up across the street from Fairfield - by the golf course - and went to high school in Redding. I remember one day that I woke up to rain and a bit of white rain mixing in so I got ready for school seeing nothing but wet ground. I get in the car - go up 58 into Redding and when I get to the CT. Golf Club it is all snow and there was like 8 inches. I continue on to Barlow just another mile or two up the hill and there is like a foot on the ground and it's a blizzard and I almost got stuck.

In that storm north parts of Easton wound up with almost a foot while down by my house we got a coating. Altitude in SW CT is pretty variable - Stamford itself could be considered to have a 'coastal' forecast as well as an 'inland' forecast.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yep, its coming....ORH had 17 consecutive years of no below average snow seasons between 1955-1956 ad 1971-1972.....then even though the rest of the 1970s weren't that bad, starting in 1978-1979 it was a 13 year run of beast-in-the-shed mode while Cape Cod was getting 20" snowstorms every 3 years and the mid-atlantic did pretty well.

This is assuming 'variable typology' within a stable climate, however.   

I mean I don't refute the numbers - they are what they are.  And, ...I agree: the concept of vacillating back and forth in smaller time-scale climate modes within 'normalcy' is certainly clad.   

But we should be asking along the way ... what is normal variation, when normal its self is changing?  

I recall reading papers in the early 1990s when at UML, how early climate modeling predicted that N/A would experience cooling (plausibly) do to the tendency for the Pacific heat content to force NE Pacific ridging - I wasn't even aware of the EPO domain space back then, and in fact, I haven't even researched when that particular teleconnector's spatial layout and statistical correlations all came into focus.  But ... sufficed it is to say, we have been seeing an abundance of -EPO's in the last five years in particular of this scare mongering ..heh.

Obviously that's an eye-roller for most... because they'll tend to knee jerk react with that age-old mantra over the EPO going through decadal oscillatory behavior in its own rite ...of course. I wouldn't be dumb enough to argue that, either.  However, I cannot help but recapitulate NASA's 60 some-odd months or more worth of global temperature monitoring persistently feature a relative negative node resulting either over or near-by our region of the hemisphere ... some 80+% of those months.  That has also persisted during both ENSO warm and cool phases - sort of backing us into the conclusion that whatever is causing that, be it noise or symptomatic, the ENSO isn't really the cause.  So that does open the question into other causality ... GW and those papers leap to mind. 

So taken for what it is worth, ... climate variability its self is also in a state of flux and that logically would skew the expectation a bit.  

 

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Yea but we have to hear your guys b*tch and moan for a decade before you get a top flight season.....no one can stand that type of keyboard abuse.

Those guys haven’t said a word. Meanwhile whineminster and the dragon crew cry about a 100 season being meh.

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JC-CT

JC-CT

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

It’s right there really. You’re at the canal. 

The key is that there is land separating it from the Atlantic for a good 10-15 miles on an east or NE wind. Once you get just a little bit further out past the canal, it's all ocean breeze all the time.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, JC-CT said:

What map? Are you saying the coastal front isn't the most frequent about 15-25 miles inland?

Ginx was talking about banding. I took as saying he implied a climo spot for banding in coastals. The deformation banding also depends on orientation and structure of mid level lows, but just MSLP placement.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

East Wareham isn't really Cape Cod though

It's on buzzards bay just west of the bridge...it's a good estimate for the upper cape. The average won't be more than an inch or so difference for towns like Falmouth, Bourne and sandwich.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

The key is that there is land separating it from the Atlantic for a good 10-15 miles on an east or NE wind. Once you get just a little bit further out past the canal, it's all ocean breeze all the time.

The land does not modify ocean air really. He’s maybe 10 miles if that. The reason why people talk about inland getting more snow is because they are usually on the cold side of any coastal front. 

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WinterWolf

WinterWolf

Posted
Posted

SNE is so varied....everybody can argue this stuff till the cows come home.  Like PowderFriek said a while back....Everywhere in SNE can do Big Storms well at any given time.  Every place...the shore, inland, West and East, the Cape, the hills, everyone gets a shot at something BIG at some point.  SNE does big storms well like he said.  

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JC-CT

JC-CT

Posted
Posted
Just now, CoastalWx said:

The land does not modify ocean air really. He’s maybe 10 miles. The reason why people talk about inland getting more snow is because they are usually on the cold side of any coastal front. 

Doesn't that imply a climatologically favored spot for the coastal front? You are confusing me lol

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
Just now, JC-CT said:

Doesn't that imply a climatologically favored spot for the coastal front? You are confusing me lol

But a coastal front is different from deformation banding. I need to see what Steve meant. A coastal front results in low level enhancement to snow or even rain. The deformation banding is a function of forcing near the mid levels where the DGZ is usually located. I think you could argue that there is a relative climo spot for these. The typical rt 128 in MA down to near or NW of PVD into ern CT. But this is very generic and also various with every storm. So that is even tough to debate.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
Just now, WinterWolf said:

SNE is so varied....everybody can argue this stuff till the cows come home.  Like PowderFriek said a while back....Everywhere in SNE can do Big Storms well at any given time.  Every place...the shore, inland, West and East, the Cape, the hills, everyone gets a shot at something BIG at some point.  SNE does big storms well like he said.  

I'm an empirical evidence kind of guy...everyone has a biased view of their own backyard. So the empirical evidence is an easy way to reduce the bias. We can't completely remove it since we don't have reliable data for every point in SNE. The empirical evidence though does show that the Cape gets more snow on average than the coast of SW CT. North of the merritt inland a bit? Different story...that area seems to average comfortable in the mid to high 30s (and getting into the low 40s once in the DXR to the hills around Waterbury),. I've been parsing coop data for 15+ years now and even trying to reconstruct bad data, so I've looked at snowfall in SNE probably more than anyone...so I feel pretty comfortable making that general statement.

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SouthCoastMA

SouthCoastMA

Posted
Posted
Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said:

I would rather hang myself from Tobin than wait a decade for a big cape season. Enduring rainers while everyone else snows does something to a man and its not pretty.

It makes you stronger. Adds grit

Plus it's not like we haven't had decent seasons in between. Look at my sig

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