Napril Fools? Pattern and Model Discussion . . .

[CoastalWx]

7 minutes ago, Sugarloaf1989 said:

Snowing down to lake level at Mirror Lake NY:

 

Glad we aren’t there.

[Sugarloaf1989]

8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Glad we aren’t there.

Sad I'm not.

[Typhoon Tip]

19 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Glad we aren’t there.

Muah hahaha ... not me -

I love the juxtaposition inside of a week thing... 

Although, it reminds me of a personal muse recently: I can remember when we were ...well, "I" - I think I may be considerably older than you - were kids and someone might say, "...It was just so-and-so a month ago..."  It had meaning. 

Now?  Perhaps part of climate change should be the expectation for short duration chaotic weather variance ...Which yeah, it's in all the present day scientific scripture so probably so.  But, having it snowing on Sunday and 80 on Wednesday, within a stone's throw of sea-level mind us, hearkens back to those earlier days of life where there was perception of more climate stability, and how the sentiment of change was worthy of conservation - it's old hat now..

Back when I was a kid ... oh man does that sound old to say it that way... but, getting snow two weeks ahead of a spring heat spell was considered pretty unusual.  Now, it seems like every year it's grapply cat paw instability rawness to a 100 four days flat. Heh, not that much but you get what I mean... In this case, Herkimer NY is snowing and may be 79 in two days..probably 82 on Wednesday -

You know... digressing further: It also relates to this odd frequency of higher and higher snow total storms?  I mean, we've had this discussion before, how we collectively suffered a dearth of snows > 4" in the 1980s ... But I'm not so sure that is purely a function of a local time-scale climate bias alone.  It seems that way all over the world. Some mountain in Italy had like 120" overnight snow storm recently for example, and apparently nothing like that had ever been observed?  Check that and don't make a liar out of me   but ... imagine waking up and having the only daylight be dim, blue-tinted glow coming through your secondary story windows?  Ha ha... Open the front door and it's a just a gray white interior fascia of an iceberg.  Avalanche of the gods..  Better yet, your bedroom is on the first floor, so you sleep into 11am and wake up and it's pitch dark out side the window. That'd be a head scratcher

[wxmanmitch]

2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Mitch will have snow tonight and tomorrow. He can have it.

3-km NAM pumping out close to a foot here with upwards of 17" at 3K. If even 1/3 of those totals verified that would be impressive. Heck, I think even AQW and PSF could get a bit white later tonight.

Currently 35° F with light rain and catpaws mixed in.

In other news, some Boy Scouts had to be rescued off the AT last night just to my west. Apparently they weren't prepared for the sudden change in weather we had around 5-6 PM when it went from 60° F and dry to 40° F and heavy rain in under an hour. I thought the scout motto was to "Be Prepared" as the weather can change in the nick of time in these parts. Glad they're all okay though.  

[Typhoon Tip]

the 12z NAM goes from about 44 at Logan at 2 am on Tuesday, to 74 or so by mid and late afternoon....  That's going by what the profile/sounding balanced against synoptics suggest at either end of that range. And, the difference across that time-span is amazing - really looks like winter to late spring compressed inside of one day.

[powderfreak]

P-type radar showing blue in Mitch's neighborhood of SVT.  

Adirondacks are over to snow with SLK ASOS down to <1 mile vis.

KSLK 291513Z AUTO 00000KT 3/4SM -SN BR VV008 01/01 A2986 RMK AO2 P0003 T00060006

[powderfreak]

31 minutes ago, wxmanmitch said:

3-km NAM pumping out close to a foot here with upwards of 17" at 3K. If even 1/3 of those totals verified that would be impressive. Heck, I think even AQW and PSF could get a bit white later tonight.

Currently 35° F with light rain and catpaws mixed in.

In other news, some Boy Scouts had to be rescued off the AT last night just to my west. Apparently they weren't prepared for the sudden change in weather we had around 5-6 PM when it went from 60° F and dry to 40° F and heavy rain in under an hour. I thought the scout motto was to "Be Prepared" as the weather can change in the nick of time in these parts. Glad they're all okay though.  

Your area looks better than further north in VT as the core of the cold undercuts the ULL.  

Theres going to be a decent bit of precip but I think up this way the snow level stays above 2,500ft.  Probably just a frosted tips type set up where the summits glisten in 6" of snow above the brown valley.

[Damage In Tolland]

All 4 units installed up and in.

Get em in folks 

[Typhoon Tip]

We may not be around to witness those numbers if the recent MJO guidance is correct...

... Tidal forces have caused an incoming asteroid to split in two... each one is between 5 and 7 miles in diameter, and traveling at close to 45 km per second. A total impact kinetic yield of multiple undecillion megatons.  One's calculated trajectory ground zeros an impact 60 miles ENE of Moscow, while the other is ~ 45 miles SW of Washington D.C.. 

Presently ... there is a clandestine operation to gather up top intelligence officials, some noteworthy societal modals, a few billionaires ...and a preselected/tested stock pile of genetically superior Humans from all different races. They'll entomb in self-contained underground massive scaled eco-complex capable of sustaining them for twenty years while the rest of the 99.9999999999999 of the planet either vaporizes in the rock-vapor heat pulse, or ..wonder sightless through the smoldering aftermath of the apocalypse only to wither and die as a last sacrament to a failed belief of a chosen ideology and species conceit... 

 

 

[CoastalWx]

2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Muah hahaha ... not me -

I love the juxtaposition inside of a week thing... 

Although, it reminds me of a personal muse recently: I can remember when we were ...well, "I" - I think I may be considerably older than you - were kids and someone might say, "...It was just so-and-so a month ago..."  It had meaning. 

Now?  Perhaps part of climate change should be the expectation for short duration chaotic weather variance ...Which yeah, it's in all the present day scientific scripture so probably so.  But, having it snowing on Sunday and 80 on Wednesday, within a stone's throw of sea-level mind us, hearkens back to those earlier days of life where there was perception of more climate stability, and how the sentiment of change was worthy of conservation - it's old hat now..

Back when I was a kid ... oh man does that sound old to say it that way... but, getting snow two weeks ahead of a spring heat spell was considered pretty unusual.  Now, it seems like every year it's grapply cat paw instability rawness to a 100 four days flat. Heh, not that much but you get what I mean... In this case, Herkimer NY is snowing and may be 79 in two days..probably 82 on Wednesday -

You know... digressing further: It also relates to this odd frequency of higher and higher snow total storms?  I mean, we've had this discussion before, how we collectively suffered a dearth of snows > 4" in the 1980s ... But I'm not so sure that is purely a function of a local time-scale climate bias alone.  It seems that way all over the world. Some mountain in Italy had like 120" overnight snow storm recently for example, and apparently nothing like that had ever been observed?  Check that and don't make a liar out of me   but ... imagine waking up and having the only daylight be dim, blue-tinted glow coming through your secondary story windows?  Ha ha... Open the front door and it's a just a gray white interior fascia of an iceberg.  Avalanche of the gods..  Better yet, your bedroom is on the first floor, so you sleep into 11am and wake up and it's pitch dark out side the window. That'd be a head scratcher

Oh I agree that the change would be epic,  but I’m ready for nice weather. I’m completely ready for warm season. Never thought I’d say that, but I’m looking forward  to 80s. Even today has me aggravated. 

[weathafella]

Can’t wait for 95/70.

[powderfreak]

17 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Oh I agree that the change would be epic,  but I’m ready for nice weather. I’m completely ready for warm season. Never thought I’d say that, but I’m looking forward  to 80s. Even today has me aggravated. 

Today is pissing me off too, ha.  Just walked the dog for an hour in steady rain and low-40s temps.  About as miserable as it gets while it snows at the summits.  

Bring on the 70s to 80F that's forecast this week.

I can't believe I'm still paying for heat in the daytime right now.  Just want windows open.

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

Very +NAO April 22-May 10. Since 2005, this seems to be a signal for hotter Summer's vs more normal Summer's. Fiirst image is -NAO in this time period, second image is +NAO. fwiw

 

First image is 2 La Nina's, 2 Neutral's so.. 

[Typhoon Tip]

56 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Can’t wait for 95/70.

Heh... ooo k -

I can wait for that... for a long long long time.  But no need to rehash the opine about heat - just say ... interesting synoptic meteorology to follow; not so much to swallow

I think part of Scott's sentiment, not to put words in his mouth, has to do with the fact that we just got seriously and utterly ass violated by an excessively cold month of April and no snow (really appreciably enough) to show for it...  And, those two things can be mutually exclusive.  For example, 2006 wasn't this cold but we ended up with an order of magnitude more snow for the month... Not that snow is the be-all. But.. I admit it offers entertainment to an otherwise piece of schit waste of time period of the calendar year.

Anyway, it's just been abrasive to the nerves and nothing else, being whacked by unrelenting chill. I mean ... look around - it's snuffed out life.  And I really believe there's a kind of collective counter desire to clean house of it and just seek something else. 

95/70 ...even if you were just being euphemistic is a HI of a 104 though .. hah.  My guess?  Tolerance for that would wane in about three days ... not 30 worth of cold April.

[Typhoon Tip]

44 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Today is pissing me off too, ha.  Just walked the dog for an hour in steady rain and low-40s temps.  About as miserable as it gets while it snows at the summits.  

Bring on the 70s to 80F that's forecast this week.

I can't believe I'm still paying for heat in the daytime right now.  Just want windows open.

I can't wait to see NASA's monthly press release for the state of the climate ... where they color -code the global temperature anomaly/means.   The scale and dimension of negatives over New England may just go deeper than black -

More importantly, I bet it paints the world as some 5th warmest April in history, too -   ... I've commiserated for some, while celebrated for others, this remarkable propensity for southeast Canada and NE U.S. to always be within sniffing distance ...if not in, one of the few relative off-set cool pools during the last 15 years of this GW scare.  Its really quite remarkable.  We've had above normal .. it's not always. But ... some 60 or 70 % of those 180 months or something.

[Typhoon Tip]

Looks like the longer range tries to prevent summer until 2019 too -     

[OceanStWx]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Oh I agree that the change would be epic,  but I’m ready for nice weather. I’m completely ready for warm season. Never thought I’d say that, but I’m looking forward  to 80s. Even today has me aggravated. 

 

1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

Today is pissing me off too, ha.  Just walked the dog for an hour in steady rain and low-40s temps.  About as miserable as it gets while it snows at the summits.  

Bring on the 70s to 80F that's forecast this week.

I can't believe I'm still paying for heat in the daytime right now.  Just want windows open.

Meh, I'll be changing diapers in my own wheel of 'rhea so May weather might as well follow suit. 

Give me some CoC days in July and August when I might be able to leave the house again. 

[CoastalWx]

1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

Today is pissing me off too, ha.  Just walked the dog for an hour in steady rain and low-40s temps.  About as miserable as it gets while it snows at the summits.  

Bring on the 70s to 80F that's forecast this week.

I can't believe I'm still paying for heat in the daytime right now.  Just want windows open.

It was raining and 49 earlier. Now sun is out and it’s in the 50s.  Amazing what sun can do. 

[powderfreak]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It was raining and 49 earlier. Now sun is out and it’s in the 50s.  Amazing what sun can do. 

Yeah this time of year its crazy.

Lovely day in the Adirondacks, lol.  The Saranac Lake and Lake Placid area seeing some steady snowfall all day.

LOL at these daytime obs at SLK on April 29th:

[moneypitmike]

48 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Looks like the longer range tries to prevent summer until 2019 too -     

It's good some have installed.

[weathafella]

56 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Looks like the longer range tries to prevent summer until 2019 too -     

I just looked at GEFS-I didn’t get the impression that it strayed too far from normal.

[Typhoon Tip]

3 minutes ago, weathafella said:

I just looked at GEFS-I didn’t get the impression that it strayed too far from normal.

I wasn't being passionate... heh. 

Although, I am wondering if we sag back into the schits post the warm up this week.  The 12z Euro seems to leave the scene sensibly at or even above by a little, but that canvas PNAP structure has me wondering if that dictates a summer where the thickness plumes always peel off and shunt S as we get later on. 

We're all tapping feet at this point... with some few exceptional weird outliers. Ha.  But ...it's been a tough road to hoe through this April this year, with a lot of miserable negative departures that offered no redemption on sensible weather... more like forced indoor imprisonment ..unrelenting.  That doesn't lend to having much patience.  And, it's tough to remember that it's still early.. By the end of this week, May will be - so far - about 20 above normal.  Haha. 

[mreaves]

Temp dropped to 38 on the car thermo and saw some bold, gloppy raindrops up by exit 5 on I89 here n VT

[Typhoon Tip]

3 minutes ago, mreaves said:

Temp dropped to 38 on the car thermo and saw some bold, gloppy raindrops up by exit 5 on I89 here n VT

Yeah it's probably a topic for Chris or PF but ..wouldn't shock me if there's summit whitening this evening and over night.

[Damage In Tolland]

9 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I wasn't being passionate... heh. 

Although, I am wondering if we sag back into the schits post the warm up this week.  The 12z Euro seems to leave the scene sensibly at or even above by a little, but that canvas PNAP structure has me wondering if that dictates a summer where the thickness plumes always peel off and shunt S as we get later on. 

We're all tapping feet at this point... with some few exceptional weird outliers. Ha.  But ...it's been a tough road to hoe through this April this year, with a lot of miserable negative departures that offered no redemption on sensible weather... more like forced indoor imprisonment ..unrelenting.  That doesn't lend to having much patience.  And, it's tough to remember that it's still early.. By the end of this week, May will be - so far - about 20 above normal.  Haha. 

Rest room?

[ineedsnow]

Day 10 Euro sub tropical storm incoming?

[Typhoon Tip]

3 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

Day 10 Euro sub tropical storm incoming?

   I wondered about that...  It looks odd... There is actually a key-in to mid level support for extra tropical development ...albeit weak, then all the sudden there's a disproportionately strong low tucked into the Del Marv embedded in a thickness bulb connected to the Bahamas. 

But yeah no it's not likely to even exist there on the next cycle.

[Go Kart Mozart]

33 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I wasn't being passionate... heh. 

Although, I am wondering if we sag back into the schits post the warm up this week.  The 12z Euro seems to leave the scene sensibly at or even above by a little, but that canvas PNAP structure has me wondering if that dictates a summer where the thickness plumes always peel off and shunt S as we get later on. 

We're all tapping feet at this point... with some few exceptional weird outliers. Ha.  But ...it's been a tough road to hoe through this April this year, with a lot of miserable negative departures that offered no redemption on sensible weather... more like forced indoor imprisonment ..unrelenting.  That doesn't lend to having much patience.  And, it's tough to remember that it's still early.. By the end of this week, May will be - so far - about 20 above normal.  Haha. 

row

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Well snowing all day @ 1600' saranac lake

means snow levels will probably be well below summit level in greens by now. 2k?

 

Washington has been pounding heavy snow all day even with the temps aloft much milder in Ne nh than greens

[OceanStWx]

Tracking pea size hail in NE MA. Ah, all is right with the world again.