CoastalWx Posted April 28, 2018 Share Posted April 28, 2018 The oaks a starting to get a little swol in the bud. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted April 28, 2018 Share Posted April 28, 2018 today just really turned out topico - what is this, top 10? 70 here, with open azure skies with small puffies scooting passed ... Negligible wind. Low humidity. Sun baking the ground... I was imagining a scenario where the trees just up and skipped it this year... Like, crossing a threshold where it's just not worth it and there is no green up in the trees - good thing nothing like that's every happened. I wonder how late the foliage was in the 'year without a summer' - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted April 28, 2018 Share Posted April 28, 2018 BD does get down to almost PWM on the 12z GGEM before washing out. I still think mid way through that three day warm up ... couldn't hurt to at least keep an eye on that feature. Right now the models engineering means to hold it back ... It's probably okay - a bit of a rare set up that makes the BD lower probability this time. Like, 9 times out of 10, you see this sort of flat ridge warm up to BUF you'll end up with carving back SW in the BL.. but the flow up N of the boarder may just stay laminar enough to prevent BD mechanics from evolving. ANOMALOUSLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAJOR STORY DURING MUCH OF THE PERIOD AS SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT RISES TAKE SHAPE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. THIS SHOULD BE PARTICULARLY NOTED OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY AS HIGHS SOAR INTO THE 80S ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC ON WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY...POTENTIALLY INTO FRIDAY. THIS WOULD SUGGEST DEPARTURES FROM AVERAGE ON THE ORDER OF 10 TO 15 DEGREES WITH EVEN SOME RECORDS POSSIBLY OVERNIGHT FROM THE MILD CONDITIONS. ON FRIDAY MORNING...FORECAST LOWS IN THE 60S ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC COULD LEAD TO SUCH DAILY RECORDS BEING BROKEN. I like how NCEP stops short of including "... NEW ENGLAND..." in this excerpt from their mid/ext. range discussion. Can't say I blame them... They get the point across this way, and when if it fails N of NYC ...heh, they 'NEVER SAID IT WOULD' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted April 28, 2018 Share Posted April 28, 2018 2 hours ago, Hazey said: When the Napril thread transitions into the treepril thread, we yawn, we bud, we leaf. Each year the end of April become brush fire talk, treepril, or tales of winters of yore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 28, 2018 Share Posted April 28, 2018 What a naper today. Low 70’s. Tomorrow and Mon gonna blow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted April 28, 2018 Share Posted April 28, 2018 3 hours ago, CoastalWx said: The oaks a starting to get a little swol in the bud. Time to start documenting these things at the new house. "April 26th, thy first acer rubrum buds appeared on the homestead." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted April 28, 2018 Share Posted April 28, 2018 20 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: What a naper today. Low 70’s. Tomorrow and Mon gonna blow Hopefully the worst of the cold shots Monday for the season. Unfortunately probably not but after Monday we spring Tuesday and we summer Wednesday for the rest of the work week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted April 28, 2018 Share Posted April 28, 2018 21 minutes ago, weathafella said: Hopefully the worst of the cold shots Monday for the season. Unfortunately probably not but after Monday we spring Tuesday and we summer Wednesday for the rest of the work week. Right - if it's any consolation ...we're timing the nadir wonderfully with this cold pool antic. It's in an out on Monday ...meh, not much of a day other than commitment to work anyway. At lest it didn't time for today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted April 28, 2018 Share Posted April 28, 2018 the other thing is that the although still annoying ... it's not quite as horrid looking as the models had it in prior runs ... not that all unusual to see a turd scenario get a bit normalized by warm season working on system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted April 28, 2018 Share Posted April 28, 2018 it does make you hungry for more days like this though, huh - And it always does that here... we get a day like this but we right away pay for our sins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted April 28, 2018 Share Posted April 28, 2018 Currently 83/62 here in florida... Glad I'll be use to the warmer weather coming this week when I get home Tuesday.... We had a few nights here with dews in the.mid 70's hopefully that's the highest I see the rest of the season!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted April 28, 2018 Share Posted April 28, 2018 Low 70s here...57 9 miles away at Logan. Glad we don’t live there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted April 28, 2018 Share Posted April 28, 2018 17 minutes ago, weathafella said: Low 70s here...57 9 miles away at Logan. Glad we don’t live there. Did 13.5 miles today along the water. Was about 57F at Rockport High and a cool 51F along Atlantic Ave in Gloucester at noon. The sun was sure warm though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 28, 2018 Share Posted April 28, 2018 No seabreeze here. We low 70s. Felt amazing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted April 29, 2018 Share Posted April 29, 2018 67.4° here...71° in CON. Awesome afternoon after the gloomy start. Heavy, heavy planting today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 29, 2018 Share Posted April 29, 2018 85-90 looking likely later this week. Installs this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted April 29, 2018 Share Posted April 29, 2018 3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: 85-90 looking likely later this week. Installs this morning You are such an incredible wimp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 29, 2018 Share Posted April 29, 2018 Lol installs. Please. No 90 but mid 80s and maybe some U80s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 29, 2018 Share Posted April 29, 2018 26 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: You are such an incredible wimp. Remember when his family almost left him last year in May when the wheel O’ Rhea set up with wind whistling through the AC units and temps in 40s? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 29, 2018 Share Posted April 29, 2018 Mitch will have snow tonight and tomorrow. He can have it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 29, 2018 Share Posted April 29, 2018 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: Lol installs. Please. No 90 but mid 80s and maybe some U80s. 85-90 with dews in 60’s one day. Enjoy sheets stuck to fanny at night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 29, 2018 Share Posted April 29, 2018 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: 85-90 with dews in 60’s one day. Enjoy sheets stuck to fanny at night Take the under by a few. Watch for debris clouds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 29, 2018 Share Posted April 29, 2018 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Take the under by a few. Watch for debris clouds. Glad we don’t live there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted April 29, 2018 Share Posted April 29, 2018 The euro is decently warmer than the GFS by a couple of degC. If those euro 850s verify, 90F in the hot spots wouldn't shock me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted April 29, 2018 Share Posted April 29, 2018 I dunno.. 90 looks at least possible to me. I haven't honestly closely picked apart the other models, but just the Euro over morning coffee might get it close. First, I've been noticing the Euro's been adding like 1/3 of a C deg to the 850 mb level every cycle, while also being steadfastly uninterested in wavering to the other guidance in creating BDs and micro highs and other issues with the synoptic players. Seems just hell-bent on an unperturbed ridged out heat appeal. Anyway, the 850 mb thermal field is not a terrible metric to use for that period of time ..Wednesday thru Friday evening, relative to the Euro. That's an open sky, west wind continental conveyor and with lower DPs (common to this time of year) would parlay to less turbidity ... culminating, the mixing depths are likely to be quite tall ... maximizing the adiabats and even expanding thicknesses diurnally - Also the Euro has a closed plume of 16 to 17 C at 850 just E of the Del Marva to Cape Cod on Wednesday evening... That's typical the lower tropospheric tilting caused by the deep layer westerly momentum transporting the heat of the day seawards of the coast. Logically that suggests there's been a goodly production/success in daytime heating along the I-95 corridor from DCA TO PWM.. I'd almost take the 875 mb adiabatic extrapolation to the surface, then add the index finger of 2 to 3 C for the 2-meter. Probably about 90 proper if one chooses the Euro for Wednesday. And frankly ... doesn't look appreciably different on Thursday. Friday is less of a 'heat dome' signal and more of a warm sector, ...more wind but the front is timed for after 00z Saturday ...so the afternoon probably repeats the sensible weather. That's the Euro appeal to me... But again, there are other models. I know yesterday the GGEM flirted with a weak BD of Thursday... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted April 29, 2018 Share Posted April 29, 2018 one thing about that... we forget - or I do anyway... - that climo is like 68/44 to 63/40 from S to N across SNE this week. Putting up an 80/58 is a thick anomaly. I mean 87/60 ( seems a safe bet..) is gonna top tier the results. NCEP did mention yesterday that the overnight lows might have record high mins this late week from this air mass during their write-up yesterday, but I didn't really look into that. Interesting. We've had early heat on many occasions ...particularly over the last 20 years it seems, more so than the previous frequency. But often those are accompanied by large diurnal variations with lows in the low 50 or even mid 40s soaring during the day. The total 24 hour thus doesn't really capture the essence of the sensible weather. But, this week if we can keep the low elevated ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 29, 2018 Share Posted April 29, 2018 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: Glad we don’t live there Better chance where you are. Just saying. Mid and high level junk possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted April 29, 2018 Share Posted April 29, 2018 57 minutes ago, dendrite said: The euro is decently warmer than the GFS by a couple of degC. If those euro 850s verify, 90F in the hot spots wouldn't shock me. yeah agreed... but, I'm seeing the Euro as perhaps a warm outlier compared to both it's own ensemble mean and compared to other guidance types... That said, Wednesday's inside it's wheel house so this is a kind of interesting antithetical study to winter at day 4, when it may be more(less) robust with a cold system and is also at odds with the other models. Will the Euro coup the heat signal too? I don't think I recall the usership of this social media ever analyzing that - haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted April 29, 2018 Share Posted April 29, 2018 Snowing down to lake level at Mirror Lake NY: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted April 29, 2018 Share Posted April 29, 2018 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: 85-90 with dews in 60’s one day. Enjoy sheets stuck to fanny at night So 70's for you at 999' and hiding in the AC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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