Napril Fools? Pattern and Model Discussion . . .

[Damage In Tolland]

Holy rain.What a pounding 

[Ginx snewx]

7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Holy rain.What a pounding 

1.35 so far today

[CT Valley Snowman]

4 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

What area is considered the lakes region of Maine? I have only heard that term associated with NH.  The whole state of Maine has nice lakes.

Actually I'm referring to the Belgrade Lakes area and just a bit south of where Tamarack is located but you're right I'm not sure if that area is actually designated as the lakes area of Maine, could be more accurately described as the foothills region between the coastal plane and the western mountains.  Rolling hills and lots of lakes and ponds in the region.  

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, CTValleySnowMan said:

Actually I'm referring to the Belgrade Lakes area and just a bit south of where Tamarack is located but you're right I'm not sure if that area is actually designated as the lakes area of Maine, could be more accurately described as the foothills region between the coastal plane and the western mountains.  Rolling hills and lots of lakes and ponds in the region.  

What will you be doing up there in early Mayorch?

[WinterWolf]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

What will you be doing up there in early Mayorch?

Maybe Fishing?

[CT Valley Snowman]

7 hours ago, WinterWolf said:

Maybe Fishing?

Opening up camp for the season.  Parents have a cabin on a lake and I help them get the place cleaned up and set up and the guys from Hammond Lumber come and install the dock that goes out on the lake. Usually go beginning of May once the ice is out and snow melt is complete.  

[Ginx snewx]

2 hours ago, CTValleySnowMan said:

Opening up camp for the season.  Parents have a cabin on a lake and I help them get the place cleaned up and set up and the guys from Hammond Lumber come and install the dock that goes out on the lake. Usually go beginning of May once the ice is out and snow melt is complete.  

Awesome , you should have a GTG weekend for some Wxgeeks, just sayin

[Ginx snewx]

Freeze warnings Mon AM?

[Typhoon Tip]

It's like a hybrid pattern between a "heat dome" vs just a transient warm sector scenario.

The heat dome version is sort of a pattern anchored ridge that may pulse ...swelling and contracting over three day periodicity ... and are thus by nature more semi permanent. That's where you get your 7 to 10 day significant +SD departures from normal.  Not quite the same as seasonal warm biases...which happen for a cornucopia of culminating reasons that parlay to warmer than normal... 

Anyway, the transient warm sector is just that, temporary. As in (usually) < than two days. 

This thing next week looks sort of dome-"like", and does appear anchored enough to resist break down ...extending that total warm look for 3 or even 3.5 days.  The GGEM was really toasty..suggesting a 87-91 type potential -though as usual... regardless of model the 2-meter products don't reflect what the sigma level thermal layout and other synoptic parameters argue it should... and thus leaves me to ponder why they put that product out there (I digress).  

The Euro was about 6 to 12 hours faster to break down the ridge, and about 3 to 5 F less realized with actual surface readings, but you know... the D5 Euro and the D5 GGEM are like carbon copy solutions - that's interesting in its self for other reasons...  

The GFS on the other hand... it's hard to know whether its rush to erode the ridge down like a comet being strafed by the solar wind of the westerlies is right or not, but ... can't say it can't happen.  It did have the more robust heat signal on a couple of cycles when the Euro/GGEM complexion's sort of faded some over the course of yesterday. 

Meanwhile, the tele's from the CPC side really are banging a warm pattern.  The operational run would prooobably be a cool-ish outlier, relative to it's ensemble mean, if those tele curves are correct.  

All told and together ... it seems the warm signal is more robust than a mere transient warm sector, yet, troughing out there in the deeper range is trying to tamp the ridge down ..But, already the models hint at ballooning in the longer range .. la la times.  We'll see.  

[Baroclinic Zone]

12 hours ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

What area is considered the lakes region of Maine? I have only heard that term associated with NH.  The whole state of Maine has nice lakes.

I consider it the area just south and east of the Appalachian mountain.  More or less an extension of the NH region.  Not sure if the area up by Belgrade is consider part but the area around Sebago is.

[WinterWolf]

I don't think it's an official "known" region...like the Lakes region in Northern N.H. is...but to each their own, sounds like a nice place to have a cabin on a lake.  

[Damage In Tolland]

32 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Freeze warnings Mon AM?

Danger ahead

[HoarfrostHubb]

GFS has backed off a little wrt temps next week...not shocked    It could still come back

[Ginx snewx]

37 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Danger ahead

90s? 

[rimetree]

1 hour ago, WinterWolf said:

I don't think it's an official "known" region...like the Lakes region in Northern N.H. is...but to each their own, sounds like a nice place to have a cabin on a lake.  

I'd say Maine has several lake regions, including the "lakes region" as the tourist guides refer to around Sebago. Belgrade, Rangeley, Lincoln, Grand...that I can think of. Family has a place on Duck Lake in the Lincoln Lakes region.

[Typhoon Tip]

38 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

GFS has backed off a little wrt temps next week...not shocked    It could still come back

Judging by the teleconnectors at the CPC ... the GFS operational is probably the cooler outlier - 

just sayn'

I mentioned above, the Euro and GGEM had warmer appeals them, too.  

[Damage In Tolland]

1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said:

90s? 

We said 90 might be hit and yes that is very much on the table for Wed or more likely Thursday 

[tamarack]

14 hours ago, CTValleySnowMan said:

Actually I'm referring to the Belgrade Lakes area and just a bit south of where Tamarack is located but you're right I'm not sure if that area is actually designated as the lakes area of Maine, could be more accurately described as the foothills region between the coastal plane and the western mountains.  Rolling hills and lots of lakes and ponds in the region.  

When folks in southern Maine refer to the "Lakes Region", they generally mean Sebago and the lakes to its north and west - Naples, Bridgton area.  Generally the Belgrade Lakes always are cited with the town name included.

If you have time to fish, that weekend might be primo.  The crazy wildest pike fishing I've ever experienced came on an 80° day in early May a number of years back.  In the early season those toothy predators seek out the slightly warmed waters in shallow areas adjacent to the north shores, where sunlight reflecting off vegetation adds a slight boost.  That's where I had that pikefeast on North Pond.

[tamarack]

50 minutes ago, rimetree said:

I'd say Maine has several lake regions, including the "lakes region" as the tourist guides refer to around Sebago. Belgrade, Rangeley, Lincoln, Grand...that I can think of. Family has a place on Duck Lake in the Lincoln Lakes region.

One of my favorites among the landbase on which I work.  Is your place on the northeast shore?

Follow-up to my previous post.  The secondary education facility in Naples, Maine is called Lake Region HS.  Not only Belgrade, but most other lake groups in the state have place names added - Fish River chain of lakes, Sysladobsis Lakes, Machias River lakes, are some examples.

[rimetree]

6 minutes ago, tamarack said:

One of my favorites among the landbase on which I work.  Is your place on the northeast shore?

Follow-up to my previous post.  The secondary education facility in Naples, Maine is called Lake Region HS.  Not only Belgrade, but most other lake groups in the state have place names added - Fish River chain of lakes, Sysladobsis Lakes, Machias River lakes, are some examples.

It's more northwest shore. There is another Duck Lake which is bigger than the Duck Lake we're on in Lakeville. It flows into Junior Lake to the southeast .

[WinterWolf]

53 minutes ago, tamarack said:

One of my favorites among the landbase on which I work.  Is your place on the northeast shore?

Follow-up to my previous post.  The secondary education facility in Naples, Maine is called Lake Region HS.  Not only Belgrade, but most other lake groups in the state have place names added - Fish River chain of lakes, Sysladobsis Lakes, Machias River lakes, are some examples.

It's funny, cuz you have Big Madawaska Lake, and Little Madawaska Lake and they aren't even in Madawaska;  I think they're in the town of Cross Lake, Maine, which Ironically also has a lake in it (Cross Lake) named after the town.

[mreaves]

1 hour ago, rimetree said:

It's more northwest shore. There is another Duck Lake which is bigger than the Duck Lake we're on in Lakeville. It flows into Junior Lake to the southeast .

Both of those lakes look like they are pretty far downeast.  Its got to be a 5 hour drive for you?

[tamarack]

2 hours ago, rimetree said:

It's more northwest shore. There is another Duck Lake which is bigger than the Duck Lake we're on in Lakeville. It flows into Junior Lake to the southeast .

Got the wrong Duck.  The one to the south is amid 30,000 acres of public land, while the lakefront lot among the 3 original Public Lots on Lakeville is on Keg Lake, rather than Duck.  I'm not sure about current access, but the smallest of the 3 (McGoon Pond lot) lies in the NW corner of the town, has not had timber harvesting in 50+ years, and is one of the best examples of the eastern Maine inland forest that greeted the first European invaders.  

It's funny, cuz you have Big Madawaska Lake, and Little Madawaska Lake and they aren't even in Madawaska;  I think they're in the town of Cross Lake, Maine, which Ironically also has a lake in it (Cross Lake) named after the town.

Those lakes are on the town(s) east of Cross Lake twp, and are the source of the Little Madawaska River.  The (bigger) Madawaska River flows into the St. John at Edmundston, NB, right across the river from Madawaska.  Trivia note:  Those latter 2 communities share the only international pulp and paper facilities of which I'm aware.  The mill in Edmundston reduces wood to cellulose-rich pulp, which is piped as a slurry across the St. John to the paper mill in Madawaska.

[rimetree]

21 minutes ago, mreaves said:

Both of those lakes look like they are pretty far downeast.  Its got to be a 5 hour drive for you?

Yes. For that reason we don't get to use it much for weekend getaways since we'd spend a lot of time traveling. But because it's out of the way, it's pretty quiet there even in mid-summer. Often have the lake to ourselves. Nice area for t-storms.

[Cold Miser]

3 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

We said 90 might be hit and yes that is very much on the table for Wed or more likely Thursday 

If I recall, just the other day some were laughing at your call for 80's next week.  Now I am seeing 80's calls going hard and heavy.

[Typhoon Tip]

This run of the Euro actually does it ... Funny, it's support in the GGEM waned some...while maybe came back slightly in the GFS...  But the Euro is also showing steadily increasing gradient overall... with lots of very cold heights reestablishing N of the 60th parallel across the Canadian Shield... That's transitively problematic for sustaining warm air at our latitude because that means you have erosive tendency of the northern ridge arc by steady diet of S/W and other stuff going on... 

In any case, this run actually taps plateau heated air from Old Mexico and intermingles that with the continental WCB ...interesting.  The model's doing that because overall out there toward D7 the flow over N/A is very highly amplified ... Deep digging into the SW is pulling that air up... indicative of us "maybe" getting a heat dose at the expense of spring snow buildup in the southern Rockiers ..or colder there in the least.  Will was mentioning how those with heat fetishes in TX might actually look for this flow type down there and viola -it pops on the model just days later. 

[Ginx snewx]

8 minutes ago, Cold Miser said:

If I recall, just the other day some were laughing at your call for 80's next week.  Now I am seeing 80's calls going hard and heavy.

no it was 90s and hot and humid, ummm

[WinterWolf]

25 minutes ago, Cold Miser said:

If I recall, just the other day some were laughing at your call for 80's next week.  Now I am seeing 80's calls going hard and heavy.

Miser get your stories straight...he was calling for 90's and installs.

[moneypitmike]

No installs today.

52.9*.  I'll be able to stop the fire some day.....

[Cold Miser]

32 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

no it was 90s and hot and humid, ummm

 

14 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Miser get your stories straight...he was calling for 90's and installs.

Yes. 90's came later, but i am pretty sure he was in 80's land while others were in 70's land.