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Napril Fools? Pattern and Model Discussion . . .

HimoorWx

By HimoorWx,
in New England

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

Kevin is the last person to accept ..much less even see change that sets in the face of preference ... 

That said, there is no way the overnight runs carried the same appeal with the 'warm up' next week - sorry for those hoping to see that thing continue to balloon. 

In fact, the post I made to Will ...this cycle last night? It made the point .. with style and panache! 

"...I can't count any longer how many times I've tracked this sort of ordeal in extended guidance and push comes to shove... it turns out to be a flatter scenario with the westerlies cheese-grading the top of it down to about 18 to 24 hours of windy warm sector ... which is nice...don't get me wrong...but it wouldn't be a static three to four day thing. ..." 

I don't know if it is a local temporal climate bias that is both effecting the models, and will correct given time... ?  But, it seems the big ridge nodes with torridity in the D6 to D10 ranges have a real, real problem staying put in guidance - I think it may be like 3 out of the last 31 of them have succeed, and all others failed to be anything other than a transient ordeal while the pattern reloaded. 

"Reloaded" ... that's why I think it's related more so to a local temporal scale climate bias where the pattern over N/A just wants to find the +PNAP rest state at least excuse imaginable. It doesn't lend well to ridging over the E and S of the 55th parallel .. which is harder to come by anyway, given to the fact that a total neutral PNAP has the slight geopotential bulge in the west ... coupled by balancing sag in the east... thus, sustaining a ridge over the E should by default be lesser statistically favored anyway. But, this last five years?  It's taking that and tipping it even worse.  

One of two things has happened the majority of times with extended heat domes:

one ... as outlined above, they end up being more of a transient warm sector ...morphing over successive runs away from the bigger anchored ridge appeal. 

two ... just flat out retrogrades in the models back to Colorado and the west ...which is kind of like what the 06Z hinted at too.  For summer/heat enthusiasts...this is the more frustrating of the two lies because it flat out can end up, if anything, actually cooler than normal when the original inception had the heat dome.  It's the sad trumpet heat wave: wah wah wahhhh.  

Of course .. there has to be a vigil in place that it can still verify and go the other way, and buck trend ... all that.. So we'll see where the next runs go.  It's interesting discussion in terms of modeling behavior ..if not climate bias, because we're turning the page here and so expectations for faux/Judas heat waves may not be a bad correction method. 

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted
Just now, dendrite said:

Even with a flatter ridge I think there's still enough latitudinal gain of the warmth in the upper midwest with that trough digging into the west coast to get 10-12C in here giving a couple of 77F-83F type days.

Oh sure ... it's going to be warmer than it has been ... How much and how long -

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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Posted
27 minutes ago, Modfan said:

Brush fire threat next week?

Hm... maybe not.  

The brush fire stuff is usually - quite logically - associated to low RH numbers, and given to the saturation of top soils/debris leveled this week, that may not be quite the same as the last of the snow melt/evaporation yielding to a warmer than normal pattern.  

There's always some chance of that when the warm season finally gets a toe-hold and there is detritus/fuels around left over from last years decay, but in terms of relative concern it doesn't appear set up for higher end. 

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Whineminster

Whineminster

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Posted

We have to be careful not to blow our heat load this early in the season, otherwise the remainder of summer could be chilly.  There's only so much heat to be had every year. Similar to how we blew our cold load early in the winter this season, and most of the remainder of the winter was mild. 

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tamarack

tamarack

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, Modfan said:

Brush fire threat next week?

Probably low for SNE, as the warmth and the current watering should green up the forest floor with leaf-out soon to follow.  Maine had a bunch of small brush fires Sun--Tues in the breezy desiccated air, but won't be greening up as soon, so might have another crispy period after the Fri-Sat trough.


We have to be careful not to blow our heat load this early in the season, otherwise the remainder of summer could be chilly.  There's only so much heat to be had every year. Similar to how we blew our cold load early in the winter this season, and most of the remainder of the winter was mild. 

That works sometimes, but we've had wire-to-wire seasons as well - summer 2002 for heat, 2009 for lack of same.  Winter 2002-03 for cold, 00-01 and 09-10 for not much cold.  (15-16 would also fit except for the VD polar plunge.)   Or it could just be weird, like last summer.  The 4 warmest days were May 18: 91; June 11-12: 88,87: and Sept 24: 85.  We also had 84 on June 13 and on Sept 25-26.  Best we could do for July was a mere 81.  The 7 warmest days all came before-after climo's warmest 12 weeks of summer.

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alex

alex

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, Whineminster said:

We have to be careful not to blow our heat load this early in the season, otherwise the remainder of summer could be chilly.  There's only so much heat to be had every year. Similar to how we blew our cold load early in the winter this season, and most of the remainder of the winter was mild. 

Definitely. The tropics in the summer can be awfully chilly... like when you have 3 days of southerly winds and by the 3rd day all that tropical air is exhausted and you're like - brrrr, time to fire up that wood stove. 

LOL!

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

Looked over the GEF tele's and as far as that source for the mass-fields ... heh, actually the support is warmer ... not for the creativity of the operational runs to erode the establishing eastern ridge so fast.  

Even though I stand by my earlier multi-season trend analysis and the modeling behavior of failing heat domes east of 100 W ... the tele's do offer some suggestion that regardless of that, the huge trough incursion next Friday that's bullied into the guidance since last night's runs might also be over-zealous.  

 

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CT Valley Snowman

CT Valley Snowman

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Posted

Heading up to the Lakes region of Maine for the first weekend in May next weekend.  It will be  interesting to see how the pattern evolves.  Does the ridge off the east coast hold strong through Friday/Saturday with perhaps some peripheral shower activity but otherwise mild trending towards cooler late Saturday/Early Sunday or is the front through by Friday P.M and we start off cool and perhaps a bit wet and unsettled if the front is hanging out nearby. Could see mid to upper 70's when we arrive on Friday if everything broke right or if the front happened to sag south with a frontal wave and a cool NE flow we could be talking 50 degrees and raw.  I'm hoping that ridge can be strong enough and for the progression of the pattern to slow enough to squeeze in a mild Friday into at least part of Saturday.  

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

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Posted
2 minutes ago, CTValleySnowMan said:

Heading up to the Lakes region of Maine for the first weekend in May next weekend.  It will be  interesting to see how the pattern evolves.  Does the ridge off the east coast hold strong through Friday/Saturday with perhaps some peripheral shower activity but otherwise mild trending towards cooler late Saturday/Early Sunday or is the front through by Friday P.M and we start off cool and perhaps a bit wet and unsettled if the front is hanging out nearby. Could see mid to upper 70's when we arrive on Friday if everything broke right or if the front happened to sag south with a frontal wave and a cool NE flow we could be talking 50 degrees and raw.  I'm hoping that ridge can be strong enough and for the progression of the pattern to slow enough to squeeze in a mild Friday into at least part of Saturday.  

Or it could snow 

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HIPPYVALLEY

HIPPYVALLEY

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Posted
23 minutes ago, CTValleySnowMan said:

Heading up to the Lakes region of Maine for the first weekend in May next weekend.  It will be  interesting to see how the pattern evolves.  Does the ridge off the east coast hold strong through Friday/Saturday with perhaps some peripheral shower activity but otherwise mild trending towards cooler late Saturday/Early Sunday or is the front through by Friday P.M and we start off cool and perhaps a bit wet and unsettled if the front is hanging out nearby. Could see mid to upper 70's when we arrive on Friday if everything broke right or if the front happened to sag south with a frontal wave and a cool NE flow we could be talking 50 degrees and raw.  I'm hoping that ridge can be strong enough and for the progression of the pattern to slow enough to squeeze in a mild Friday into at least part of Saturday.  

What area is considered the lakes region of Maine? I have only heard that term associated with NH.  The whole state of Maine has nice lakes.

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