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Napril Fools? Pattern and Model Discussion . . .


HimoorWx

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  On 4/15/2018 at 3:22 PM, OceanStWx said:

AWT

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Yeah and it prob doesn't even need to be that cold if its low level NE flow right off the ocean. That's gonna be like pure salt nuclei which can prob support ice crystals at about -5 to -6C. I've read in some literature that you can get ugly columns/needles even a bit warmer from sea salt nuclei in the right conditions. 

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  On 4/15/2018 at 3:45 PM, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah and it prob doesn't even need to be that cold if its low level NE flow right off the ocean. That's gonna be like pure salt nuclei which can prob support ice crystals at about -5 to -6C. I've read in some literature that you can get ugly columns/needles even a bit warmer from sea salt nuclei in the right conditions. 

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The funny part is that we can know this, but without hand drawing some snow into the grids there is like no scientific weather tool available to NWS forecasters that would capture this situation right.

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  On 4/15/2018 at 3:42 PM, powderfreak said:

And this was a fine example of all the model p-type algorithms failing when the warmth is so high up.  

No matter the vendor or product, they tried to code this as snow.  Glad I stayed conservative as may make it to my 2-4" range on the low side.  

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Algos FTL. 

AWT. 

I'd bet that some of the euro algos are just looking at H7 and H85 and cannot "see" the warm layer in between. 

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