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Napril Fools? Pattern and Model Discussion . . .


HimoorWx

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Fwiw, the tele's from the GEFs really still do close the book on the season pretty convincingly beginning next Thursday...

The monday - wednesday thing has really been a bit of a deeper signal for a couple weeks believe it or not.  It's actually vestigially that Archembault signal ... though it appears it's been getting slowly wrecked by seasonal obscuring.  Regardless of the Euro ...it's like the winter party carries on then the police show up next Thursday and the back side of the thing ends up 60 to 75 for a couple of days. interesting. 

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  On 4/4/2018 at 7:47 PM, Typhoon Tip said:

Fwiw, the tele's from the GEFs really still do close the book on the season pretty convincingly beginning next Thursday...

The monday - wednesday thing has really been a bit of a deeper signal for a couple weeks believe it or not.  It's actually vestigially that Archembault signal ... though it appears it's been getting slowly wrecked by seasonal obscuring.  Regardless of the Euro ...it's like the winter party carries on then the police show up next Thursday and the back side of the thing ends up 60 to 75 for a couple of days. interesting. 

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It is mid Napril. They should 

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  On 4/4/2018 at 7:49 PM, ORH_wxman said:

Well i have over 40 inches since Mar 1...lol. But it's still weird to see a lot of suppression this late in the year. Still might get hit hard though....we'll find out soon enough.

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looked deep at the Euro, its really not far off next week, almost INVT look this far out, slams SR area. Also the 5H for Sat is teasingly good.

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  On 4/4/2018 at 7:50 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

It is mid Napril. They should 

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Heh... yes and no.    It's varies year to year.   Some years it comes in February (2012...) other years... you could argue that 2005 waited until June .. 

Sarcasm there .. but, "winter" in the patterning really should not be defined by snow vs rain... Even a mild day or two is absorb-able into the background signal... The subject matter has to do with planetary wave lengths; not really something an untrained eye can really identify ... but one concomitant aspect the arrives with the shortening and nebular break-down is the fuller retreat and/or observable normalization of the 850 mb temperature complexion ...all which is pretty clearly evident after next Wednesday.  

But this year's been particularly tricky because the thing back back in February with the ludicrous warmth was then heavily usurped by the west-based NAO. I really almost think this is a bad year to engage in the "when is the season changing" debate, because that NAO skewed things ... I agree with Ray that the AO is partly involved in that and all of it was/is rooted in SSW as it's influence decays a slow death.  

If one wants to get into basic climate arguments that's just based upon longer termed means ..and that is why things don't always "switch" at the same time every year. 

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