Napril Fools? Pattern and Model Discussion . . .

[Ginx snewx]

DIT didn't issue a tree toppler damaging wind event tomorrow?

[powderfreak]

  On 4/3/2018 at 11:27 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

This was the best W CT snow season in many years. Many , many years. Every coastal they scored on. That doesn’t happen a lot 

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Does western CT average more snow than eastern CT, all things considered (say at similar latitude and elevation)?  I have no idea

[Damage In Tolland]

  On 4/4/2018 at 12:14 AM, powderfreak said:

Does western CT average more snow than eastern CT, all things considered (say at similar latitude and elevation)?  I have no idea

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No. Not DXR to WBY to SBY. NW Hills do yes

Think back to 2015. They got screwed every single storm while just east of the valley jacked . W CT tends to get screwed on most Miller b’s. This year though , that didn’t happen 

[powderfreak]

18z NAM looks a bit better for Friday, which probably means its not as good for most posters, ha.

[Ginx snewx]

  On 4/4/2018 at 12:14 AM, powderfreak said:

Does western CT average more snow than eastern CT, all things considered (say at similar latitude and elevation)?  I have no idea

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NW Hills crush the Eastern Hills. SWCT hills more than the valley and all more than the southern coast from BDR to GON 

[powderfreak]

  On 4/4/2018 at 12:16 AM, Damage In Tolland said:

No. Not DXR to WBY to SBY. NW Hills do yes

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I guess I'm thinking if you compare them equally... like would Danbury average more than Ledyard?  They are same latitude, just one in the west and one in the east.  On the coast, does like Fairfield/Milldford/NewHaven average more than say Old Lyme/Groton/Stonington? 

All things equal, NW Hills vs. NE Hills... W.coastal vs. E.coastal?

[powderfreak]

  On 4/4/2018 at 12:20 AM, Ginx snewx said:

NW Hills crush the Eastern Hills. SWCT hills more than the valley and all more than the southern coast from BDR to GON 

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Ah ok, thanks.  Just purely curious.  Hard to envision but I think it's recent confirmation bias as I'd think the eastern half averages more, ha.

[Ginx snewx]

  On 4/4/2018 at 12:24 AM, powderfreak said:

Ah ok, thanks.  Just purely curious.  Hard to envision but I think it's recent confirmation bias as I'd think the eastern half averages more, ha.

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Check the map I posted

[powderfreak]

  On 4/4/2018 at 12:28 AM, Ginx snewx said:

Check the map I posted

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Thanks!  Ok so the climo is fairly similar for similar latitudes but an ever so slight SW to NE axis to it.

[Ginx snewx]

  On 4/4/2018 at 12:31 AM, powderfreak said:

Thanks!  Ok so the climo is fairly similar for similar latitudes but an ever so slight SW to NE axis to it.

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Yes SE winds often marine taint that way. I would bring the 30 to 40 closer to the coast.  The terminal moraine in SECT is a good cutoff 

[Damage In Tolland]

  On 4/4/2018 at 12:28 AM, Ginx snewx said:

Check the map I posted

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I always laugh at all the snowfall maps that try to include elevation events and they leave out Tolland and Stafford and instead include Pomfret/ Putnam down to Mansfield , which really isn’t elevated much at all. I’d say 75% of the snowfall storm maps totally don’t actually know where the NE hills are. That map you posted is pretty spot on.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

  On 4/4/2018 at 12:22 AM, powderfreak said:

I guess I'm thinking if you compare them equally... like would Danbury average more than Ledyard?  They are same latitude, just one in the west and one in the east.  On the coast, does like Fairfield/Milldford/NewHaven average more than say Old Lyme/Groton/Stonington? 

All things equal, NW Hills vs. NE Hills... W.coastal vs. E.coastal?

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Speaking for latitudes a little further North, coastal plain locations have often faired better the past 10-15 years than areas 70-100mi inland.

Outside of the storm a few weeks ago that crushed N Adams to Stratton VT there have been very few jackpots for NW MA, SW NH and S VT.  

Pittsfield, N Adams, Greenfield, Bennington, Brattleboro, Keene and Albany have all had there share of relative screw jobs during the big storms.   It's it's not just the lower elevations either, E slope of Berkshires, S Greens and the Monadnocks have not been snow bonanzas.  

 I don't know what the long-term average are for these places but you have to figure it's better than the past 10 years average. I moved here in 2007 and frequent some of the aforementioned locations so have a pretty good idea of snowfall around these parts. 

Lack of SWFE, Clippers and Miller A's are part of the problem.  Models banging Miller B's at the Benchmark make me cringe to be quite honest. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

  On 4/3/2018 at 11:20 PM, CoastalWx said:

Ray will learn that his relationship is more important than a blog about where the 700mb RH is highest. 

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Hopefully before the first marriage counseling session.

[Ginx snewx]

  On 4/4/2018 at 12:43 AM, Damage In Tolland said:

I always laugh at all the snowfall maps that try to include elevation events and they leave out Tolland and Stafford and instead include Pomfret/ Putnam down to Mansfield , which really isn’t elevated much at all. I’d say 75% of the snowfall storm maps totally don’t actually know where the NE hills are. That map you posted is pretty spot on.

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Quincy made it, we helped him, remember?

[Damage In Tolland]

  On 4/4/2018 at 12:47 AM, Ginx snewx said:

Quincy made it, we helped him, remember?

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I do. Even Ryan misdraws the map sometimes. Though it pains him to include Tolland in higher amounts when WeHa misses out, so some of it is that personal bias he has 

[dendrite]

  On 4/4/2018 at 12:20 AM, Ginx snewx said:

NW Hills crush the Eastern Hills. SWCT hills more than the valley and all more than the southern coast from BDR to GON 

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NW hills get some fakeslope though.

[henry1978]

I'd push the 30-40 from Greenwich to Branford down to 95.

[Ginx snewx]

  On 4/4/2018 at 12:51 AM, dendrite said:

NW hills get some fakeslope though.

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Where LES comes to die 

[Ginx snewx]

  On 4/4/2018 at 12:58 AM, henry1978 said:

I'd push the 30-40 from Greenwich to Branford down to 95.

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95 is on the coast there including Fairfield I don't think so

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

  On 4/4/2018 at 1:04 AM, Ginx snewx said:

95 is on the coast there including Fairfield I don't think so

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Yea, the merritt is a good cutoff. 

[henry1978]

The western half of the Connecticut shoreline gets more snow than Middlesex, New London counties and the south coast of RI.  Not only more snow, but better snow depths and better snow retention.  In change over events New Haven can stay below freezing while farther east it spikes into the upper 30s in mystic and 40s in Rhode Island.  So many events, like December 30, 2000 virtually nothing in SE CT and a ten inch snow cover in Fairfield.

I was driving the night of March 5th 2001.  total whiteout from Bridgeport on east.  ten plus inches in a few hours in the middle of the night.  By the time I reached exit 87 pouring rain.

I eat at a diner in west haven.  downtown west haven exit 46.  I'm always surprised at the snow depths in west haven despite being right smack on the sound.  There's no way west haven only averaged 20-30.  All those fancy houses in Greenwich and cos cob a mile north of 95, surprisingly snowy areas.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Fancy houses get more snow. 

[henry1978]

  On 4/4/2018 at 1:23 AM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Fancy houses get more snow. 

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Not near the dutchess diner in west haven lol.

[HoarfrostHubb]

  On 4/3/2018 at 11:26 PM, HoarfrostHubb said:

NAM less robust

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  On 4/4/2018 at 12:17 AM, powderfreak said:

18z NAM looks a bit better for Friday, which probably means its not as good for most posters, ha.

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Lol

[Cold Miser]

  On 4/4/2018 at 12:43 AM, Damage In Tolland said:

I always laugh at all the snowfall maps that try to include elevation events and they leave out Tolland and Stafford and instead include Pomfret/ Putnam down to Mansfield , which really isn’t elevated much at all. I’d say 75% of the snowfall storm maps totally don’t actually know where the NE hills are. That map you posted is pretty spot on.

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Geography Fail.  Ragged Hill area of Pomfret is 800+ elevation.

[CT Rain]

  On 4/4/2018 at 12:48 AM, Damage In Tolland said:

I do. Even Ryan misdraws the map sometimes. Though it pains him to include Tolland in higher amounts when WeHa misses out, so some of it is that personal bias he has 

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That map isn't all that good.

I struggle with Windham Co sometimes figuring out how to draw snow contours out that way because we don't get many obs from places other than KGINX. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Potentially busy week ahead.

http://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2018/04/more-snow-possible-friday-saturday.html

[ice1972]

Are the Valley Girls done for the season?  

[Whineminster]

Nowhere in CT is "great"  for snow, but I feel they are far enough NE to get benchmark coastals but far enough Southwest to get Mid-Atlantic storms too.  Otherwise CT is pretty blahhh in most other regards, not just snow. 

[ice1972]

  On 4/4/2018 at 3:29 AM, Whineminster said:

Nowhere in CT is "great"  for snow, but I feel they are far enough NE to get benchmark coastals but far enough Southwest to get Mid-Atlantic storms too.  Otherwise CT is pretty blahhh in most other regards, not just snow. 

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lol