April 2nd Snow Wave

[Animal]

1 minute ago, Snow88 said:

18z Nam has 3-6 for the NYC area with slightly more for the south shore of LI and central NJ where a heavier band is just offshore

Snow maps hammer nw nj.

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, Animal said:

Snow maps hammer nw nj.

Yes sir

[Stormlover74]

3k is about a 4 hour event. Nw nj and colts neck jackpots of 6+

[jm1220]

3 minutes ago, Animal said:

Snow maps hammer nw nj.

There’ll likely be a band up there and maybe up to the I-84 corridor where the best fronto exists with good ratios. Hopefully the subsidence south of that isn’t too lousy. Down here the moisture might be deeper so there would be another area of heavier snow. What snow we get will probably be gone by late day. Temps here are over 60 today so that warm ground will eat it right up. 

[sferic]

23 minutes ago, Animal said:

Snow maps hammer nw nj.

Hopefully Sullivan County can cash in for more than the 2 inches projected earlier, Less QPF but temps tonight low 20's and better ratios.

[sferic]

18Z GFS slightly further North then any of its previous runs. Brings a tad more qpf and accumulations into Sullivan County

[jm1220]

1 hour ago, sferic said:

Hopefully Sullivan County can cash in for more than the 2 inches projected earlier, Less QPF but temps tonight low 20's and better ratios.

Sullivan County will be riding where that northern band can make it. It’ll be a close call between little and 4-5” where the band can reach. 

[MJO812]

Upton now has 4 inches for NYC and 5 inches for JFK and LI
https://scontent-lga3-1.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/29572893_10213604173852707_1360427623601011789_n.jpg?_nc_cat=0&oh=01aecfcbf8d45bdedb372843d9c786a6&oe=5B33FEC2

[Doorman]

https://digital.weather.gov/

[NJwx85]

Heading home from Tennessee in the morning. Funny how I had to drive through a snowstorm to get here and I’ll be driving home in another, at least the tail end.

[purduewx80]

The 12Z HREF mean  seems to be a nice compromise for the location of potential banding - it still may be a little noisy given the 24h lead time, but a narrow stripe of ~6" seems a good possibility somewhere through the city. A 2-3 hour period of intense frontogenesis collocated through prime snow growth AND decent mid-level lapse rates should result in brief heavy snow rates of 1-2"/hr in narrow, banded snow. It will obviously melt quickly, but I do think the early morning hours could be a mess given the signal for heavy snow.

[jm1220]

8 minutes ago, purduewx80 said:

The 12Z HREF mean  seems to be a nice compromise for the location of potential banding - it still may be a little noisy given the 24h lead time, but a narrow stripe of ~6" seems a good possibility somewhere through the city. A 2-3 hour period of intense frontogenesis collocated through prime snow growth AND decent mid-level lapse rates should result in brief heavy snow rates of 1-2"/hr in narrow, banded snow. It will obviously melt quickly, but I do think the early morning hours could be a mess given the signal for heavy snow.

Hopefully the subsidence south of that band isn’t too crazy. Models mostly have a solid area of snow hitting everyone but the 3k NAM definitely has a split shaft zone between the deeper moisture and that northern band. We’ll see soon how it shakes out. 

[weatherpruf]

21 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Hopefully the subsidence south of that band isn’t too crazy. Models mostly have a solid area of snow hitting everyone but the 3k NAM definitely has a split shaft zone between the deeper moisture and that northern band. We’ll see soon how it shakes out. 

That would be me in that subsidence zone....I mean really....at least it's April. Today was nice. We'll see what tomorrow brings, eh?

[Stormlover74]

4-6" areawide seems a bit overdone

[weatherpruf]

8 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

4-6" areawide seems a bit overdone

Probably closer to 2-4 for us, if it works out, but that will still be a good event.

[NewYorkweatherfan]

11 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

4-6" areawide seems a bit overdone

This is the appetizer before the real dinner next weekend. I really think 4-6 is doable because it'll be great rates for about 3 hours 1-2/he rates for just about everyone in the central park east and west. Obviously it'll be colder in the suburbs so it'll stick better there. Next weekend is the big one watch!

[jm1220]

27 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

That would be me in that subsidence zone....I mean really....at least it's April. Today was nice. We'll see what tomorrow brings, eh?

I have a bad feeling the bandy/subsidence split shaft look on the 3k NAM is more right than models like the Euro. We already kinda see it on radar now in IL/IN. The good northern band on the 3k NAM has pretty consistently been shown north of the city. There’ll likely be another good area away from that band in the better moisture. Any snow in April is a big plus, and we’re all well above average for the winter. And amazingly the threat a week from now may be legit. 

[Stormlover74]

5 minutes ago, NewYorkweatherfan said:

I don't think i'd be worried about 3k nam and hdrps those models are very poor! I'd go with the regular nam and rgem at this time also the here looks amazing for 5-6 inches area wide city included

Regular nam is 2 to 5

[jm1220]

I’d also be wary about going for more than a couple of inches in the city. It’ll be at night but it will have to come down like gangbusters for a while to really accumulate. Places like Bayside and other more suburbanized spots are probably exceptions. 

[ILoveWinter]

Honestly any snow in April would be a big win, particularly for those in the city.  As for here in the urban jungle of Manhattan, I really cant see this as being much more of nuisance other than in the parks, especially as some of this would come during the day. Westchester, Rockland, Bergen...will make out pretty well.

[Stormlover74]

3K nam amazingly consistent

[Ace]

I'm a bit concerned that the immediate NYC metro area gets caught in subsidence/lighter rates if the heavy snow band is slightly north of us. High res models seem to be targeting Northwest Jersey and the lower Hudson Valley with the immediate NYC metro on the fringe for the best dynamics. We'll see how it plays out.

[Animal]

27 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Regular nam is 2 to 5

More nw nj

[ForestHillWx]

Sky is lit up from the full moon. Not many clouds overhead. 38/26. Remarkable that my area is looking at 3"+ of snow for April 2. Back half of winter came through in a big way. 

[SnowGoose69]

4 minutes ago, NewYorkweatherfan said:

I don't think it's so much the subsidence I think it has to do with the colder temps to the north

The signal on the higher res guidance I think may simply be better initial WAA being north of the city.  So we may see steady snow start sooner up there while it takes longer down here.  I think there may not be any significant banding that far north however.  My hunch is the heavier area over C-NJ will end up further north of NYC while areas further north see a longer period of snow overall

[jm1220]

We can see on the radar that there is still heavy precip south of the northern band over the Midwest, but places left out of that band will have to wait a while and lose out on some of that accumulation. There’s also a southern heavy precip area associated with the better moisture, which models have hitting the Philly/I-195 area. That’s what I mean by “split shaft”. I could see 6” in the northern band area for sure, and 6” where the southern heavy precip area is and it’s cold enough for snow. In between would be more like 2-4” where subsidence is a problem. 

[SnoSki14]

11 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

Well, you could say that the first part of spring really stinks for the warm weather lovers...

Would've been nice if this entire pattern began 4-6 weeks earlier, we would've been rolling in snow depth. 

But I guess setting late season records isn't a bad consolation prize. 

[Ericjcrash]

New point and click from Upton gives me 4-7". They certainly weren't shy about high end forecasts this year. I'm not overly concerned about subsidence but it sure has been warm hopefully rates and timing can cover everything at least for a time.

[jm1220]

7 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said:

New point and click from Upton gives me 4-7". They certainly weren't shy about high end forecasts this year. I'm not overly concerned about subsidence but it sure has been warm hopefully rates and timing can cover everything at least for a time.

If it comes down hard enough it’ll stick, no doubt. But tomorrow it’ll be gone fast, since it’ll also be melting from underneath plus April sun. 

[Ace]

23 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

We can see on the radar that there is still heavy precip south of the northern band over the Midwest, but places left out of that band will have to wait a while and lose out on some of that accumulation. There’s also a southern heavy precip area associated with the better moisture, which models have hitting the Philly/I-195 area. That’s what I mean by “split shaft”. I could see 6” in the northern band area for sure, and 6” where the southern heavy precip area is and it’s cold enough for snow. In between would be more like 2-4” where subsidence is a problem. 

I agree 100%. Wherever this split occurs there is gonna be some unhappy weenies. Take a look at the FGEN showed by the 12KM Nam. Looks good for our immediate area, but can easily verify a bit north.