SnowLover22 Posted March 31, 2018 Share Posted March 31, 2018 2 minutes ago, NewYorkweatherfan said: Nam 18z looks good again maybe a tad warmer but regardless looks good for a 3-6 inches for our area. Very potent little wave jackpotting right through NYC area A little bit south of 12z. Correction or a blip? We will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NewYorkweatherfan Posted March 31, 2018 Author Share Posted March 31, 2018 3 minutes ago, Philadelphia Snow said: A little bit south of 12z. Correction or a blip? We will see. That's just noise. It is a smidge drier too and flatter but the differences are not noticeable for our area. Maybe for new England folks. This is a NYC special Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 31, 2018 Share Posted March 31, 2018 18z HRDPS is 3-5 for the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted March 31, 2018 Share Posted March 31, 2018 1 minute ago, Snow88 said: 18z HRDPS is 3-5 for the area Sullivan County still in the game ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.I.Pete Posted March 31, 2018 Share Posted March 31, 2018 Sullivan County still in the game ?Dude, every one of your posts is a variation of “How much for Philly?” . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted March 31, 2018 Share Posted March 31, 2018 18Z GFS seems a little south than 12z but NYC does well but perhaps not as good as 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 31, 2018 Share Posted March 31, 2018 3 hours ago, sferic said: It sure did, sidewalks and asphalt alike. Yep, daughter was about 7 months old. She's a sophomore in HS now. Seems like yesterday. Time seems to pass faster after you hit 30.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted March 31, 2018 Share Posted March 31, 2018 20 minutes ago, WEATHERBUFF said: 18z goofus always seem s to go into la la land! It really has become useless...it has become an afterthought to model watchers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted March 31, 2018 Share Posted March 31, 2018 1 minute ago, weatherpruf said: Yep, daughter was about 7 months old. She's a sophomore in HS now. Seems like yesterday. Time seems to pass faster after you hit 30.... Einstein explained it, when you're 20, one year is 5% of your existence. When you are 50, one year is 2 % if your existence, hence the feeling that life is going by faster. It isn't, it's just that each year as we age "seems" smaller. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted April 1, 2018 Share Posted April 1, 2018 53 minutes ago, sferic said: Einstein explained it, when you're 20, one year is 5% of your existence. When you are 50, one year is 2 % if your existence, hence the feeling that life is going by faster. It isn't, it's just that each year as we age "seems" smaller. Leave it to Einstein to make me feel even more depressed.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted April 1, 2018 Share Posted April 1, 2018 Not that I’m particularly buying it but hi res meso models are showing a band going up north of NYC and into CT, and a subsidence zone south of there. We probably won’t know where that sets up until it’s here, but it’ll likely be good to be on the north end of the heavier stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted April 1, 2018 Share Posted April 1, 2018 1 hour ago, sferic said: Einstein explained it, when you're 20, one year is 5% of your existence. When you are 50, one year is 2 % if your existence, hence the feeling that life is going by faster. It isn't, it's just that each year as we age "seems" smaller. The trick is to go faster and faster. I think Einstein explained that too. PS, a check of the magic 8 ball reveals ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted April 1, 2018 Share Posted April 1, 2018 GFS pretty much takes any accumulation off the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowBlitzkrieg Posted April 1, 2018 Share Posted April 1, 2018 looking forward to seeing him bust again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted April 1, 2018 Share Posted April 1, 2018 Just now, NEG NAO said: this is why we have a vendor forum - use it.......... What are you the forum police? Its storm specific. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted April 1, 2018 Share Posted April 1, 2018 3.24 mean on the SREF Plumes for LGA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted April 1, 2018 Share Posted April 1, 2018 27 minutes ago, Rtd208 said: LOL From this far out, one cannot reliably pinpoint mesoscale bands or areas of subsidence. Not surprisingly, when it comes to such features, there are often meaningful changes on the high-resolution guidance even within 24 hours of an event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted April 1, 2018 Share Posted April 1, 2018 3-5 on the nam for the NYC area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLover22 Posted April 1, 2018 Share Posted April 1, 2018 3 minutes ago, Snow88 said: 3-5 on the nam for the NYC area. With the UHI probually 1 inch at most imo at least in the immediate metro area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ace Posted April 1, 2018 Share Posted April 1, 2018 Just now, Philadelphia Snow said: With the UHI probually 1 inch at most imo at least in the immediate metro area. It really depends on where the banding sets up. The Nam and most of the models show this storm having impressive dynamics. My guess is that we see an area with close to warning level snows somewhere in the tri state area while the rest see 1 to 3 inches mostly on unpaved surfaces. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted April 1, 2018 Share Posted April 1, 2018 6 minutes ago, Philadelphia Snow said: With the UHI probually 1 inch at most imo at least in the immediate metro area. It should be in and out by 10am which gives a better shot at accumulations Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLover22 Posted April 1, 2018 Share Posted April 1, 2018 7 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: It should be in and out by 10am which gives a better shot at accumulations True the fact that it’s occuring in the early morning gives you guys a shot at more than an inch in April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ace Posted April 1, 2018 Share Posted April 1, 2018 7 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: It should be in and out by 10am which gives a better shot at accumulations Yep. Kinda wish this was happening a few hours earlier, but its not terrible timing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted April 1, 2018 Share Posted April 1, 2018 6 minutes ago, Ace said: It really depends on where the banding sets up. The Nam and most of the models show this storm having impressive dynamics. My guess is that we see an area with close to warning level snows somewhere in the tri state area while the rest see 1 to 3 inches mostly on unpaved surfaces. NAM really puts most of the action around here in a 50-75 mile wide band based on fronto like the map here shows. This run puts it a little south of 18z, which had it a little north of the city and into CT. South of it battles subsidence and north is beyond where the moisture/forcing can make it. If something like the NAM happens, I agree-in that band there could be close to warning snow or even 6-7" locally and outside there not more than 2-3". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted April 1, 2018 Share Posted April 1, 2018 Whatever happens with this storm should happen in 6 hours or less. This thing rockets in by 4-5am and should be done by latest 10-11am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NewYorkweatherfan Posted April 1, 2018 Author Share Posted April 1, 2018 3 hours ago, doncat said: It really has become useless...it has become an afterthought to model watchers. GFS is as good as navgem before it was navgem I forget the name of it maybe gaps something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted April 1, 2018 Share Posted April 1, 2018 1 minute ago, NewYorkweatherfan said: GFS is as good as navgem before it was navgem I forget the name of it maybe gaps something The Navgem was once called the Nogaps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted April 1, 2018 Share Posted April 1, 2018 That's a homer forecast ^ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted April 1, 2018 Share Posted April 1, 2018 We have a vendor thread, please use it for the crankywxguy etc posts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted April 1, 2018 Share Posted April 1, 2018 GFS really far south again, if anything even further than 18z. What good snow there is happens maybe around I-195. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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