April 2018 General Discussion

[wisconsinwx]

4 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

Check out northern Iowa.

Mason City, for example, had a morning low of 15F (that in itself might've been impacted by snowcover) but light winds and clear skies could have done the same, and topped out at 43F (cooler than surrounding areas but almost a 30F rise in spite of their snowcover).  I could see snowcover having a 5F impact at night in radiational cooling situations, if not more, but daytime (and urban area effect) looks to be pretty negligible.

[Stebo]

So we just had an earthquake, 3.6 centered south of Windsor...

[Hoosier]

Snowcover matters, but there's many other variables too so it's not the end all be all for temps.  

[Hoosier]

24 minutes ago, Stebo said:

So we just had an earthquake, 3.6 centered south of Windsor...

[Hoosier]

4 hours ago, Stebo said:

It is comparative in this region. I don't know why you are going to be ignorant on this but hey have at it. Numbers don't lie and they are comparative, plain and simple.

I will be curious to see the end of month departures.  It's been a very impressive month so far, though.

I think March 2012 was/is going to end up being more anomalous than April 2018, just based on temps.  It would get more interesting if snow amounts were also factored in (ridiculous in some areas!) along with the temps, but then it becomes more of an apples to oranges comparison.

[Stebo]

8 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

I will be curious to see the end of month departures.  It's been a very impressive month so far, though.

I think March 2012 was/is going to end up being more anomalous than April 2018, just based on temps.  It would get more interesting if snow amounts were also factored in (ridiculous in some areas!) along with the temps, but then it becomes more of an apples to oranges comparison.

Yeah I am looking more by temperatures, and yes more than likely the averages for some locally will go up before end of month, but to date they are comparable by departure.

[beavis1729]

Snow cover matters more in rural areas. This is especially true at night, but also true during the day.

In urban areas with all of the concrete, plowed roads, etc...the impact is reduced...like in MKE, MSP, and ORD. 

[RCNYILWX]

Just a heads up, the ORD ASOS was moved almost 3 miles south yesterday and new siting and current lack of grass or dirt at the site likely contributed to a significant warm bias for the MinT at ORD this morning. As a quick simple fix for today, it was changed from 36 to 31 (avg of low of 29 at PWK and 33 at MDW) , but it's something we're gonna have to watch closely moving forward. We're working with the construction company at ORD to expedite dirt and sod being placed around the new ASOS site to help with possible warm bias.

Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk

[Hoosier]

2 hours ago, RCNYILWX said:

Just a heads up, the ORD ASOS was moved almost 3 miles south yesterday and new siting and current lack of grass or dirt at the site likely contributed to a significant warm bias for the MinT at ORD this morning. As a quick simple fix for today, it was changed from 36 to 31 (avg of low of 29 at PWK and 33 at MDW) , but it's something we're gonna have to watch closely moving forward. We're working with the construction company at ORD to expedite dirt and sod being placed around the new ASOS site to help with possible warm bias.

Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk
 

Doesn't seem to be having any noticeable impact on daytime temps today, as ORD is consistent with area readings.  

[cyclone77]

21 hours ago, wisconsinwx said:

Mason City, for example, had a morning low of 15F (that in itself might've been impacted by snowcover) but light winds and clear skies could have done the same, and topped out at 43F (cooler than surrounding areas but almost a 30F rise in spite of their snowcover).  I could see snowcover having a 5F impact at night in radiational cooling situations, if not more, but daytime (and urban area effect) looks to be pretty negligible.

Got down to 25 here this morning, and made it to 64.  Looks like the remaining deep snow cover is having a large impact over northern IA/southern MN this afternoon.

[Hoosier]

40+ degree T/Td spreads around the area today.  Even a 50 degree spread at Valpo as they are 60/10

[tuanis]

Found this interesting for Chicago... 

The city’s last subfreezing high this year was 27 degrees logged on February 12 and despite our backwards spring, every day since then has topped the freezing mark. Checking temperature records back to 1871, Chicago climatologist Frank Wachowski informed us that the city’s average date for the last subfreezing high is March 15. If the February 12 date holds, it will be more than a month earlier than the long-term average and the city’s third earliest on record-trailing only February 7, 1976 (28 degrees) and February 10, 1878(30 degrees).

http://wgntv.com/2018/04/20/does-feb-12-2018-approach-a-record-for-the-earliest-last-sub-freezing-high/

[Hoosier]

14 minutes ago, tuanis said:

Found this interesting for Chicago... 

The city’s last subfreezing high this year was 27 degrees logged on February 12 and despite our backwards spring, every day since then has topped the freezing mark. Checking temperature records back to 1871, Chicago climatologist Frank Wachowski informed us that the city’s average date for the last subfreezing high is March 15. If the February 12 date holds, it will be more than a month earlier than the long-term average and the city’s third earliest on record-trailing only February 7, 1976 (28 degrees) and February 10, 1878(30 degrees).

http://wgntv.com/2018/04/20/does-feb-12-2018-approach-a-record-for-the-earliest-last-sub-freezing-high/

Surprising stat, especially with March coming in colder than average. 

[Torchageddon]

On 4/17/2018 at 4:00 PM, Snowstorms said:

Spring where art thou? 

April 2018 is like how March 2012 was. Rare and uncommon. We will be back to normal by next week so that's good news. The real question is, will it last and/or will May be alot better (like how 1975 was) or also below normal. Hopefully it ain't the later because we've all had enough of it now, haha. 

The March 2012 heatwave itself is estimated to be a once in 2000-4000+ year event on deviations, not just rare but the rarest of all. Its more extreme and unlikely than the 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season and the Super Outbreak, the latter being a bit closer. The overall month of March 2012 may be a different level of rarity where its not that unheard of but since the whole month was above average in our part of NA I tend to think it would be tough to get it more anomalous without the Mar 15-23 event.

On 4/17/2018 at 7:44 PM, luckyweather said:

Be interesting to see how they line up in magnitude when looked at in terms of standard deviation from normal.  Can only really compare highs and lows, and I think on that front March 2012 would easily win.  But in terms of the big picture - days of consecutive snowcover, snow depth, days with frozen precip, total frozen precip, in some areas all time top 5 or better system snow totals, etc - I think you're right and April 2018 is just as anomalous as March 2012.  It's wild that we get to experience both ends of the spring pendulum six years apart. 

I disagree that there is even a comparison, including the big picture. Now this April is likely far more insane south of us like in IL and parts of the Midwest but scope differences makes me still believe in the leafout of 2012. Mid-March of that year was so unbridled that I got a legit severe thunderstorm in the middle of the night that kick-started the insanity and to put that in perspective I haven't had any severe thunderstorm since then (over 6 years). Its quite rare to get any decent thunderstorm in April and many Mays go by without any mid-grade storm where I live but to get something that produced "large" hail and lightning like that WF passage was just so unreal. Just two years later we had -20ºC temps and 45 inches on the ground.

[zinski1990]

3 hours ago, Torchageddon said:

The March 2012 heatwave itself is estimated to be a once in 2000-4000+ year event on deviations, not just rare but the rarest of all. Its more extreme and unlikely than the 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season and the Super Outbreak, the latter being a bit closer. The overall month of March 2012 may be a different level of rarity where its not that unheard of but since the whole month was above average in our part of NA I tend to think it would be tough to get it more anomalous without the Mar 15-23 event.

I disagree that there is even a comparison, including the big picture. Now this April is likely far more insane south of us like in IL and parts of the Midwest but scope differences makes me still believe in the leafout of 2012. Mid-March of that year was so unbridled that I got a legit severe thunderstorm in the middle of the night that kick-started the insanity and to put that in perspective I haven't had any severe thunderstorm since then (over 6 years). Its quite rare to get any decent thunderstorm in April and many Mays go by without any mid-grade storm where I live but to get something that produced "large" hail and lightning like that WF passage was just so unreal. Just two years later we had -20ºC temps and 45 inches on the ground.

Yah 2012 was amazing. The craziest thing I remember was some areas in the up already had records broke at midnight only to be obliterated later by 20 some degrees 

[Spring 2018 Is The Worst]

Does anyone have an explanation for why the cold has been so ridiculously persistent this spring? The -NAO alone can't explain it, and it hasn't even been that negative lately. I'm just extremely confused as to why we're seeing such absurd cold this deep into spring. Even 2014 and 2015 had consistent spring weather by early April.

[Spring 2018 Is The Worst]

Actually we've technically had a +NAO for a good chunk of the month now that I'm looking...

[Chicago Storm]

11 hours ago, Spring 2018 Is The Worst said:

Does anyone have an explanation for why the cold has been so ridiculously persistent this spring? The -NAO alone can't explain it, and it hasn't even been that negative lately. I'm just extremely confused as to why we're seeing such absurd cold this deep into spring. Even 2014 and 2015 had consistent spring weather by early April.

There have been several factors involved in the cold period. The NAO was previously one of those said factors.

Right now one of them is the MJO...It was stagnant in the COD, moved through cooler phases, and has been stagnant in the COD since then again.

[Indystorm]

For the first time in seemingly ages my NWS long range outlook is calling for above normal temps and normal precip as we enter May.  I'll believe it when I feel it.

[cyclone77]

It's great that we're finally getting into some nice weather, and the snow is finally done, but as far as interesting weather to track....zzzzzzz.  

[Spring 2018 Is The Worst]

The long range looks warmish at least on most of the models.

[zinski1990]

Looks like finally this terrible weather pattern is about to be over. More ridging showing up across our half of the country. Looking so forward to consistent temps in 70s and 80s

[hlcater]

65/24. The first perfect day of the season. Shame it took us until late April for that though.

[Torchageddon]

On 4/21/2018 at 7:28 AM, zinski1990 said:

Yah 2012 was amazing. The craziest thing I remember was some areas in the up already had records broke at midnight only to be obliterated later by 20 some degrees 

Oh yeah I forgot about the midnight madness. I usually think of the lowest temperatures that occurred some days that broke the record high straight off. One of my favorite crazy highlights was Winnipeg was forecast to be 30ºC or close when the average high for whatever day was -0.8ºC. There was even a humidex forecast even higher at 32C (didn't verify). TWN was calling it a once in 1000 year temperature. Breaking records by 20ºF margins is something you don't see.

Today was amazing, the 2nd real day of Spring thus far. No light jacket needed at all, the temperature ended up being 3ºC higher than forecast so about 17ºC. Its been a while since a forecast busted that low. Now tomorrow was increased to 19ºC so things are improving very rapidly. There is still a decent amount of icy snow in the shaded areas.

[Spring 2018 Is The Worst]

2 hours ago, Angrysummons said:

That 8 day period in mid-March 2012 is what separates it from the rest. It was simply mind blowing. It was would be liike mid-April at ORD having 8 straight days of -23 to -27 departures all in a row. December 83 was close as was May 2002 for a crazy week+ of cold.

I agree. March 2012 was an amazing month, but I doubt something like that will ever happen again as there were so many factors needed to create such a prolonged period of unprecedented warmth. 

Not to take away anything from this month as the cold has been very impressive (and awful), but it certainly isn't unprecedented. There have been similar Aprils in the past. I believe April 1874 was very very cold as well along with several others. I'd say this month is on par with Dec 2015 in terms of being anomalous.

[Spartman]

Temps overperformed at 67F today.

[Jim Martin]

From the National Weather Service in Northern Indiana this evening...

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 110 PM EDT Sat Apr 21 2018

Aforementioned system will phase with incoming secondary wave 
sharpening through the lakes Wed. Based on good model consensus will 
truncate pops associated with this feature further late Tue 
night/Wed.

Thereafter attention yet another following nrn stream sw disturbance 
similarly progged to amplify considerably through the srn lakes late 
Thu/early Fri with a period of frontally forced rain. Still modest 
spread aloft seen in med range guidance and will generally follow 
blended pops. 

After that substantial ridging aloft builds east across the lakes 
downstream of quite robust meridonal deep trough building over the 
wrn US. This would point to very warm temps and dry wx manifesting 
through the OH valley Days 8-11 (Sun-Wed). 

[zinski1990]

5 hours ago, Torchageddon said:

Oh yeah I forgot about the midnight madness. I usually think of the lowest temperatures that occurred some days that broke the record high straight off. One of my favorite crazy highlights was Winnipeg was forecast to be 30ºC or close when the average high for whatever day was -0.8ºC. There was even a humidex forecast even higher at 32C (didn't verify). TWN was calling it a once in 1000 year temperature. Breaking records by 20ºF margins is something you don't see.

Today was amazing, the 2nd real day of Spring thus far. No light jacket needed at all, the temperature ended up being 3ºC higher than forecast so about 17ºC. Its been a while since a forecast busted that low. Now tomorrow was increased to 19ºC so things are improving very rapidly. There is still a decent amount of icy snow in the shaded areas.

Yes I do remember looking at record reports in up of Michigan where I'm originally from. Marquette hit upper 70s one day avg high around that time there is 35 so they were 40 degrees above average. Some interior areas like iron mountain hit 80 which was unheard of in upper Michigan in March. Here in indy i remember hitting 83 84 a few times obviously records here as well. 

[hawkeye_wx]

We hit the upper 60s today after mid 60s yesterday.  The temp is nice, but I'm really looking forward to getting higher dews up here.  That doesn't appear likely in the near future, though.

[cyclone77]

8 hours ago, hawkeye_wx said:

We hit the upper 60s today after mid 60s yesterday.  The temp is nice, but I'm really looking forward to getting higher dews up here.  That doesn't appear likely in the near future, though.

Looks like about a week from now we should see some 60+ dew potential as a decent storm system moves out over the Plains.  Could give us some convective potential as well.

It's always funny how we are so much looking forward to deep moisture getting in here at this time of year, and then by September we can't wait to get it out of here lol.  2-3 months of relentless intrusions of 70+ dews gets old by the end of the summer.  I could never live along the Gulf coast that's for sure.